Political polling

[William of Walworth]

OK thanks.

 

[brogdale]

Not clear in that link, but was that IPSOS-Mori poll for the Evening Standard London-area only??

AFAICS it was a standard, national phone poll...but with some methodological (turn-out tweaking) change since the last one, but Anthony still sees the change as significant.

 

[belboid]

Tony Blair less trusted than Joey Essex on EU Ref

JC the most popular serving politician! Tho probably better described as the least grotesquely unpopular serving politician.

 

[J Ed]

JC the most popular serving politician! Tho probably better described as the least grotesquely unpopular serving politician.

Yes, I think Corbyn and allies are going to come out with a strengthened hand within the Labour Party after the Ref. They have done exactly the right thing by refusing to share a platform with Tories while allowing the Blairites to repeat the same mistake they made during the Indy Ref.

 

[redsquirrel]

Hmm, while I don't disagree that their strategy has been right (at least from their perspective) I don't think that will stop the Progress wankers from attacking Corbyn for "not making a strong enough case"

 

[brogdale]

Hmm, will I don't disagree that their strategy has been right (at least from their perspective) I don't think that will stop the Progress wankers from attacking Corbyn for "not making a strong enough case"

Clearly been Cameron's tactic from the outset...prepare the ground for blame-sharing should the electorate 'get this wrong'. Of course Progress et al would happily exploit that vermin position.

 

[J Ed]

Hmm, while I don't disagree that their strategy has been right (at least from their perspective) I don't think that will stop the Progress wankers from attacking Corbyn for "not making a strong enough case"

Yes but members of Progress have also been busy discrediting themselves by sharing platforms with Tories.

 

[brogdale]

Yes but members of Progress have also been busy discrediting themselves by sharing platforms with Tories.

But, just imagine their (faux?) ire with the leadership if this goes tits up for their ideological bed-fellows.

 

[J Ed]

 

[J Ed]

But, just imagine their (faux?) ire with the leadership if this goes tits up for their ideological bed-fellows.

Honestly even with a media obsessed with attacking Corbyn I think there will be more important things to focus on in the aftermath of the referendum..

 

[brogdale]

80% of fieldwork conducted pre-Cox murder, but Opinium (for Observer) has R:L at 44% : 44%

UK Polling Report

 

[J Ed]

Impossible to call this, isn't it?

 

[brogdale]

Impossible to call this, isn't it?

It is.
A month ago I felt R60% :L40%, but I'm just not sure those youngsters will turn-out in sufficient number to get near that.

 

[Red O]

Six point swing to Remain.

 

[brogdale]

Six point swing to Remain.

Fieldwork post-Cox murder.

 

[brogdale]

Looking like the Cox effect & suspension has had a real impact on the Leave surge...

 

[brogdale]

Pollsters think the reverse in the Leave surge 'significant'...

 

[Red O]

 

[jakethesnake]

After the murder people might be reluctant to tell a pollster, or anybody else, that they're going to vote leave. I think the polls are likely to be underestimating the leave vote.

 

[Wilf]

After the murder people might be reluctant to tell a pollster, or anybody else, that they're going to vote leave. I think the polls are likely to be underestimating the leave vote.

I think that's plausible, for some, but the nature of this kind of poll is that remain were almost certainly underestimated in the last 10 days or so. I've always expected remain to win by a clear margin, even if the polls were shaking my confidence in that recently. I think it's over for leave now though.

 

[gosub]

What was the polling at the weekend?

 

[brogdale]

Leavists are, according to polling by Populus....

 

[brogdale]

...and remainarians are...

 

[brogdale]

Nothing about abstainers/spoilers.

 

[Dogsauce]

I guess a lot of those factors correlate with age, e.g greater majority of those who rent privately voting remain - that's as Generation Rent (young) are much more likely to be in this situation (also students will make up a decent proportion of this).

They should have 'on facebook' as an index, be interesting to see how that splits.

 

[brogdale]

lol

 

[brogdale]

lol

 

[brogdale]

I think some of these polls may turn out to be correct...dunno which ones, though.

 

[JimW]

I think some of these polls may turn out to be correct...dunno which ones, though.

Thanks professor!

 

[Fez909]

I don't know what the socio-economic groupings mean, but I'm in none of the other groups of leavers.