Political polling

[JimW]

Hang on, that Times one i just posted is the same one as earlier in the week that borgdale isn't it? Why were they tweeting it as new last night i wonder?

A YouGov one? That's what I saw on Twitter a few days back too.

 

[butchersapron]

Right, Times published it 14th, Sam thing tweeted it 10pm on the 13th. And someone was tweeting it as new on the night of the 14th, which led me to think it was the same as usual -i.e a post 10pm tweet of next days published polling.

 

[brogdale]

As conventional wisdom would predict, the DKs are shaking out into the status quo...

 

[redsquirrel]

Never thought leave would win but I am hoping for something like 55-45 split, which at least would keep up the Tory infighting.

 

[brogdale]

Never thought leave would win but I am hoping for something like 55-45 split, which at least would keep up the Tory infighting.

Yeah agreed, the smaller the gap the bigger the trouble for the vermin...but the truth is that historically there's most often been a bigger majority for 'remain'.

I still say a 'Remain' of low to mid 60's%, with 'Leave' mid to high 30's.

 

[William of Walworth]

That's quite a confident prediction brogdale -- low-to-mid 60s% 'Remain'?????

I do see what you/polls mean about Don't Knows tending to head 'Remain'-wards though.

 

[William of Walworth]

Never thought leave would win but I am hoping for something like 55-45 split, which at least would keep up the Tory infighting.

Agreed -- narrow Remain win, maximum Tory war

 

[Dogsauce]

A strong remain vote might knock UKIP back, which longer term would be a tory benefit. Then again, the SNP didn't go anywhere after the independence referendum.

 

[bi0boy]

That's quite a confident prediction brogdale -- low-to-mid 60s% 'Remain'?????

I do see what you/polls mean about Don't Knows tending to head 'Remain'-wards though.

Will the DKs actually vote though? While the remain/leave trends are clear it remains to be seen who will actually turn out on the day.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

I hate to say it but I'm slowly beginning to think that an in-vote would be preferable, if only to stop a break-up of the UK in the event Scotland gets another independence vote. I don't like the idea of a UK without Scotland.

 

[belboid]

Will the DKs actually vote though? While the remain/leave trends are clear it remains to be seen who will actually turn out on the day.

Enough did in Scotland to turn it from very narrow remain win into a fairly clear one. I think brogdale is slightly over generous to the remain vote, I reckon it'll be just under 60%, 62 tops

 

[brogdale]

That's quite a confident prediction brogdale -- low-to-mid 60s% 'Remain'?????

I do see what you/polls mean about Don't Knows tending to head 'Remain'-wards though.

Only looking at historical trends, innate conservatism of the electorate and guessing...that's all there is to my 'forecast'. But, if I were a betting man, I'd put money on 61:39.

 

[brogdale]

Will the DKs actually vote though? While the remain/leave trends are clear it remains to be seen who will actually turn out on the day.

Very good.

 

[brogdale]

I suppose we only have to look back at the earlier pages in this thread to see how good most of us are at political forecasts around polling!!

 

[redsquirrel]

Agreed -- narrow Remain win, maximum Tory war

No a leave vote would cause the maximum damage to the Tories - splitting the leadership and backers of the party from it's base. But that's not on the cards IMO.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Dream scenario? Brexit wins out, Scotland has referendum but decides to stay in UK, Tories tear themselves apart triggering a crisis of legitimacy and a general election, Labour sweeps to power with Corbs at its helm and implements a decentralised workers' democracy. This shining example inspires a world revolution and Dominoes hand out free pizza.

 

[nino_savatte]

I think whatever happens, be it Brexit or Remain, the Tories will continue the civil war. There's so much bad blood and open hostility that some rifts just won't heal. Some of them, like Bone and Hollobone (what a fucking pair) may even defect to the Kippers.

I read earlier that 25 Tory Brexiteers were planning to vote against the Queen's Speech. If that were to happen, the government could suffer a catastrophic defeat from which it would be difficult to recover.

Get yer popcorn out!

 

[treelover]

Labour MP apologises for calling voter 'horrible racist' after clash over immigration - Politics live

Labour MP apologises for calling voter 'horrible racist' after clash over immigration - Politics live

Meanwhile, Labour is in more trouble, shades of Gordon..

 

[killer b]

There was an interesting interview with Brown's bigot woman on R4 a month or so ago, she was very sharp & funny, and had some quite insightful things to say. Goes to show something or the other.

 

[nino_savatte]

*shrugs* Maybe she was a racist. Now if Pat Glass had accused the voter of anti-Semitism, people would accept it fait accompli and roundly condemned the voter. But as the word 'racist' was used instead, an apology must follow and the papers must use it as a stick with which to beat Labour. As far as the meeja is concerned, Labour just can't get it right.

However, there is a hierarchy of racisms being applied and that isn't right.

 

[killer b]

The horrible racist was a man, in this case. Moaning about polish spongers.

 

[nino_savatte]

Man, woman, whatever.

 

[brogdale]

Not polling, but £ piling onto 'Remain'.

 

[DotCommunist]

Bone and Hollobone (what a fucking pair) may even defect to the Kippers.

I've been expecting it for ages but he still holds faith. It'd be absolutely my luck to get him go kipper after a bremain, I deserve to be ruled by a fucking faragist for being a bit red

 

[kabbes]

The closer the polls get to eachother, the more DKs will come out and vote remain, and the more that shaky exits will vote remain.

Voting exit or abstaining when you are sure it makes no difference is one thing. Doing it when the vote is tight suddenly opens up the possibility of a scary-sounding exit for real, not just in theory.

There's a reason that the status quo almost always wins referenda. People don't like change. To go along with change they need three things:

1) Dissatisfaction with the status quo
2) A clear vision of what things will be like post-change
3) A clear roadmap of how they get from here to there

The exit camp are concentrating on 1 and neglecting 2 and 3. In the end, this is what will lose it for them.

The vote will always be *quite* close because if remain is looking like a steamroller, people will feel brave enough to vote for exit. But I also predict that the remain vote will end up in the low-60s as a result of these underlying issues.

 

[William of Walworth]

I'd be amazed if remain gets to 60% plus. 55%-ish at most, I reckon.

Other than that though, I think that kabbes analysis above looks like a very sharp assessment.

 

[brogdale]

This is quite jolly...

YouGov | EU Referendum Turnout Interactive

Enjoy!

 

[gosub]

The closer the polls get to eachother, the more DKs will come out and vote remain, and the more that shaky exits will vote remain.

Voting exit or abstaining when you are sure it makes no difference is one thing. Doing it when the vote is tight suddenly opens up the possibility of a scary-sounding exit for real, not just in theory.

There's a reason that the status quo almost always wins referenda. People don't like change. To go along with change they need three things:

1) Dissatisfaction with the status quo
2) A clear vision of what things will be like post-change
3) A clear roadmap of how they get from here to there

The exit camp are concentrating on 1 and neglecting 2 and 3. In the end, this is what will lose it for them.

The vote will always be *quite* close because if remain is looking like a steamroller, people will feel brave enough to vote for exit. But I also predict that the remain vote will end up in the low-60s as a result of these underlying issues.

I'd say you are on the money, but I'd probably go further depending on events today (and most likely tommorrow). Nobody can accidentally miss their marks THIS badly,- beyond fishy.

ETA. Actually strike that having just listened to Lord Owen, its the blinkers of compartmentalized expertise.

 

[brogdale]

Derived from polling cross-breaks...and nothing terribly new or anything...but quite a pretty presentation from today's FT...

 

[Kaka Tim]

So - who are this 5% of UKIP supporters who don't support Brexit? Maybe they just support them for their opposition to public breast feeding or something?