Political polling

[BigTom]

But you could ban all political polling - both public and private - during the election campaign. Don't the French do this?

Enforcement? I can't see it happening, even if it's really practical. There'll still be private polling going on by the parties and people like Ashcroft even if it's banned, they'll call it something else, find a loophole or just do it cos who is going to prosecute them really?

 

[butchersapron]

Like here:

http://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/characterising-ukip.323917/page-17#post-13848470"]Characterising UKIP?

What did you reveal there? You said something about a poll of polls - a poll no one had commented on or cared about.

 

[butchersapron]

Ban murder too.

 

[Up the junction]

What did you reveal there? You said something about a poll of polls - a poll no one had commented on or cared about.

No one's better than you, right. If you were wrong everyone has to be more wrong. It's how you roll. LOL.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

general election pollsters are schiesters, they're selling a bogus, fundamentally flawed product.

Slightly more complicated than that. They lose money on opinion polling; newpapers pay peanuts and voting intention research, even online, is really quite resource-intensive. The justification for bothering is that commercial business gets a boost from the coverage which the pollster receives. So when it goes wrong it's embarrassing all round, and no-one is cackling all the way to the bank.

 

[Up the junction]

Slightly more complicated than that. They lose money on opinion polling; newpapers pay peanuts and voting intention research, even online, is really quite resource-intensive. The justification for bothering is that commercial business gets a boost from the coverage which the pollster receives.

.. and the media feeds a seductive narrative it won't be found out about until after the event. Meanwhile, muppets on here lap it all up like it's the Holy Grail and not some two-bob wank rag.

 

[butchersapron]

No one's better than you, right. If you were wrong everyone has to be more wrong. It's how you roll. LOL.

You linked to you laughing at a polls of polls. A poll no one used. Great stuff. Great seerage.

Fact is, you said nothing before the election casting doubt on the generality of polls at all.

 

[butchersapron]

Slightly more complicated than that. They lose money on opinion polling; newpapers pay peanuts and voting intention research, even online, is really quite resource-intensive. The justification for bothering is that commercial business gets a boost from the coverage which the pollster receives. So when it goes wrong it's embarrassing all round, and no-one is cackling all the way to the bank.

Unless you have a YG/SUn relationship it' pretty costly to do proper polling.

 

[Up the junction]

Climb out the drive-by clown car a minute and read; it's a thread, read around the post.

Or don't. I think we all understand you are a little fixed in your need for self-esteem.

 

[butchersapron]

.. and the media feeds a seductive narrative it won't be found out about until after the event. Meanwhile, muppets on here lap it all up like it's the Holy Grail and not some two-bob wank rag.

This is you now is it, the polls were wrong - i didn't point it out, but i knew.

 

[butchersapron]

Climb out the drive-by clown car a minute and read; it's a thread, read around the post.

Or don't. I think we all understand you are a little fixed in your need for self-esteem.

Not much to read around. You're claiming clairvoyance after the fact.

 

[Up the junction]

This is you now is it, the polls were wrong - i didn't point it out, but i knew.

It is amusing how desperate you get to undermine anyone who shows the slightest more smarts than you on any given issue. Is this message board your patch, maaan?

 

[butchersapron]

It is amusing how desperate you get to undermine anyone who shows the slightest more smarts than you on any given issue. Is this message board your patch, maaan?

I really knew it.I just didn't say. I have undermined you.

Odd chap.

 

[Up the junction]

I'll pull out one post randomly, did you miss this. Me:
"What on earth are you going on about? Etc.

It's just the old way and very convenient. Means slightly more that fuck all. Only three weeks to the next round of 'how did the pollsters get it so wrong'."

 

[butchersapron]

Smarts. I love this 50s beatnik style. It grooves.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

Unless you have a YG/SUn relationship it' pretty costly to do proper polling.

Which is why even Ashcroft - a ludicrously rich man who polls in order to influence the Tories to do what he wants - can't afford to do it to the depth he would like, and his constituency-level polling still suffered from the dodgy assumptions and extrapolations and correlation to competitors which screwed everyone else.

 

[butchersapron]

I'll pull out one randomly, did you miss this:


Me:
"What on earth are you going on about? Etc.

It's just the old way and very convenient. Means slightly more that fuck all. Only three weeks to the next round of 'how did the pollsters get it so wrong'."

Yep, and the one before when you asked how they got it right in previous elections.

 

[Up the junction]

You're the best, you know that. You've got an answer for everything.

350 in this thread alone. 350 nonsense comments in one message board thread about polling - ever felt you've been mugged?

No, of course not.

 

[butchersapron]

Which is why even Ashcroft - a ludicrously rich man who polls in order to influence the Tories to do what he wants - can't afford to do it to the depth he would like, and his constituency-level polling still suffered from the dodgy assumptions and extrapolations and correlation to competitors which screwed everyone else.

Now here's a proper question - the extent to which polling seen as honest effects the way other pollsters act/don't act.

 

[butchersapron]

You're the best, you know that. You've got an answer for everything.

350 in this thread alone. 350 nonsense comments in one message board thread about polling - ever felt you've been mugged?

No, of course not.

Yeah, this is you now - the polls were wrong.

Cheers.

 

[Up the junction]

Yeah, this is you now - the polls were wrong.

Cheers.

No. YOU were wrong - to go anywhere near them.

That was YOUR judgement. And no one could tell you different.

 

[butchersapron]

No. YOU were wrong - to go anywhere near them.

That was YOUR judgement.

OMG the polls were wrong!!! YOU WERE ALL WRONG PEOPLE. DE-EVOLUTION IN ACTION! I didn't say any such thing or offer any evidence why mind.

 

[Up the junction]

thank you. I'm here all week.

Now to enjoy the weather.

 

[butchersapron]

thank you. I'm here all week.

Now to enjoy the weather.

Or,to say polls in every other post.

 

[brogdale]

Shall we try again?

SUPPORT for the SNP has risen to 62 per cent, according to a new poll which predicts a landslide victory for Nicola Sturgeon’s party in next May’s Holyrood election.

However, the TNS survey also found only modest levels of satisfaction with the SNP’s performance in government, with no more than a third of voters believing the Nationalists had done well in four key policy areas.

The survey of 1062 over-16s found 62 per cent planned to vote SNP in the constituency section of the ballot in the Holyrood election.

The figure was up two per cent compared with TNS’s previous poll.

Sixty-two %; wow.

 

[brogdale]

..a few more details..

Constituency vote:

SNP 62%, Labour 20%, Conservatives 12%, Lib Dems 3%

Regional list vote:

SNP 54%, Labour 20%, Conservatives 12%, Greens 8%, Lib Dems 3%

A projection of how many seats this would give each party sees SNP up to 79 from 69 in 2011, while Labour fall from 37 to 25.

If nothing else, the LDs showing consistent levels of support.

 

[JTG]

..a few more details..

​

If nothing else, the LDs showing consistent levels of support.

So - little difference between the two other than a slice of SNP going Green in the list vote.

 

[brogdale]

So - little difference between the two other than a slice of SNP going Green in the list vote.

Yeah, looks like a straight swap; need some local knowledge on that...Jocks?

 

[Sue]

Yeah, looks like a straight swap; need some local knowledge on that...Jocks?

Jocks..?

 

[JTG]

Jockanese