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Political polling

So - who are this 5% of UKIP supporters who don't support Brexit? Maybe they just support them for their opposition to public breast feeding or something?
Colleague pointed that out this afternoon... I was surprised that that few were that confused :)
 
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So - who are this 5% of UKIP supporters who don't support Brexit? Maybe they just support them for their opposition to public breast feeding or something?

It'll be the ones who like the idea of taxi drivers having to wear a uniform, but don't want to lose their supply of cheap baccy from Belgium.
 
Never been asked to do a phone poll. Don't know why.

I used to make at £10-20 a month off market research and polls for very little effort.

I only dabble these days and stick with YouGov and IPSOS so as to keep a high proportion of political polling.

The market research is painless though. 5 minutes of telling companies that their advert is shit, their product is shit and no, I won't be buying it. Job done. Come to think of it, that's exactly what I do in the political ones too!
 
I recently made the mistake of responding to an email that offered bonus points for my supermarket, thinking that it was from my supermarket, and ever since I have been bombarded with crappy emails for all sorts of tat..

Definitely the last time I will be doing that .. they all get caught in my spam traps but what concerns me is that I may have been added to an email list .. forever ..

I wish there was a TPS for email addresses!
 
I recently made the mistake of responding to an email that offered bonus points for my supermarket, thinking that it was from my supermarket, and ever since I have been bombarded with crappy emails for all sorts of tat..

Definitely the last time I will be doing that .. they all get caught in my spam traps but what concerns me is that I may have been added to an email list .. forever ..

I wish there was a TPS for email addresses![/QUOTE]


The companies that send out that spam crap use millions of random email addresses for sending purposes.
 
Smithson makes a valid point...the Leavist 'bounce' coincides with actual, live (postal) voting.

 
I'm quite surprised by the postal vote thing. Is Smithson suggesting there's been a Leave surge from early postal votes (and how, methodologically, would he/the polls pick up on that?) :confused:

Maybe us postal-vote-registering people who are getting our first ever postal votes because we're going to Glastonbury over the 23rd (most of those in our category will probably be Remainers) are very few indeed in number, and thus a niche minority.
 
The point is that people will be casting their postal votes now at a time when Leave is apparently enjoying a bit of a boost, so that could favour Leave.
 
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I'm quite surprised by the postal vote thing. Is Smithson suggesting there's been a Leave surge from early postal votes (and how, methodologically, would he/the polls pick up on that?) :confused:

Maybe us postal-vote-registering people who are getting our first ever postal votes because we're going to Glastonbury over the 23rd (most of those in our category will probably be Remainers) are very few indeed in number, and thus a niche minority.
As his tweet says, the polls merely measure a sample of opinion...he's stressing the (potentially significant) coincidence of polls demonstrating an increase in 'Leave' and the start of actual, postal voting.
 
The point is that people will be casting their postal votes now at a time when Leave is apparently enjoying a bit of a boost, so that could favour Leave.


Thanks, as speculation that makes logical sense. I think I was wondering though whether he knew more about how postal votes would head than he could possibly yet know. I was overinterpreting it.
 
Much reference to 'neck-and-neck' in Anthony's latest piece.

There are two EU referendum polls in the Sunday papers – YouGov in the Sunday Times and Opinium in the Observer. Both of them have the race neck-and-neck: YouGov have REMAIN 49%, LEAVE 51%, Opinium have REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49%. Tables for YouGov are here, for Opinium are here.

In both cases the topline figures are pretty much unchanged from figures a week ago, remaining roughly neck-and-neck. There is certainly no echo of that ten point Leave lead ORB produced on Friday.
My guess is that there has been a little movement towards Leave, but perhaps not of the scale suggested by some of the more startling figures, and not necessarily a lasting one. Opinium’s poll a week ago had a significant underlying shift towards Leave, today’s unchanged figures suggest a consolidation of that movement. YouGov on the other hand showed what appeared to be a similar movement towards Leave two weeks ago, but have since moved back towards neck-and-neck.
 
Do any election geeks know how the counting will proceed and the results come in? Will different districts declare before sending off their totals to be collated? Just trying to plan ahead and wondering whether it will be a stay up all night job or a wake up nice and early one?
 
Polling suggests summat's up....

Ipsos MORI poll gives Leave a 6-point lead
A new Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard gives Leave a six-point lead. Here’s an extract from the story.

In a dramatic turnaround since May, some 53 per cent now want to leave and 47 per cent want to stay, excluding don’t knows.

It is the first time since David Cameron pledged the referendum in January 2013 that Vote Leave have come out ahead in the respected monthly Ipsos MORI telephone survey, which is exclusive to the Evening Standard.
 
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