Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I wouldn't be surprised if the Wales polling is broadly correct - and that William of Walworth is also correct at the same time - the politics of the south Wales industrial areas is very different to the politics of the rural, eastern counties/towns in places like Radnorshire, Brecknockshire, Montgomeryshire, Monmouthshire, Denbighshire etc..
Too often Wales - like Scotland, or 'the North' gets lumped into one homogeneous blob where it's assumed that everyone fits into a single, easily defined pigeon hole - and it ain't.
Too often Wales - like Scotland, or 'the North' gets lumped into one homogeneous blob where it's assumed that everyone fits into a single, easily defined pigeon hole - and it ain't.
Still a horrendously depressing poll though 
bemused
Well-Known Member
If the Greens weren't so nice they could bump off the LibDems.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Entirely anecdotally, but i can back that up -particularly with regards to the Welsh polling - i was in rural, farming Powys with a load of tenant farmers on Sunday, and political conversation was lively and open. 10 years ago the non-Labour, non-PC vote would have overwhelmingly gone to the LibDems with a handful full of Tory votes.
Last weekend it was overwhelmingly Tory, a couple of very reluctant Labour, some PC and a very small handful of LibDems. Total change.
bendeus
Bellend Tagline Generator
I really don't know. If there's anything the last year or so has taught me it's that the nice little political echo chamber I inhabit is in no way reflective of anything but the opinions of a relative handful of people whose views chime with mine.
I fear that brogdale and kebabking are probably right.
Yet I know a fair few Labourites who are bandying the Lib Dems' name around as a possibility. Either my social circle is entirely unrepresentative (yeah it could be true...) or they're not showing up yet, aren't entirely serious, are 'don't knows' or the Lib Dems are losing a similar number to the Tories as they're gaining from Labour.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Seriously?
I am hearing the exact opposite, a hell of a lot of my mates are planning to vote Tory for the first time in their lives, others are just not going to vote at all.
Electoral Calculus is now showing a Tory majority of 170, last week it was around 130.
The whole situation is very depressing.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Plumdaff
joy in people
That's also why I don't think the Tories will win that many seats in Wales even if this is broadly correct - I can see a lot of these UKIP to Tory voters being in places that are already blue or in the hyper marginals - I can't see the Tories winning in Remain voting South Wales somehow, apart from Bridgend which I think will go Tory.
I may be clutching at straws of hope. Wales, Tory, it'd be a fucking tragedy.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Perhaps the best straw to clutch at is the exceptionalism of this particular vote. The tories have skilfully posited/equated support for May very specifically as a vote against the EU/Brussels. Polling currently suggests that is working like a dream for them, but it is a trick that will only work this once.That's also why I don't think the Tories will win that many seats in Wales even if this is broadly correct - I can see a lot of these UKIP to Tory voters being in places that are already blue or in the hyper marginals - I can't see the Tories winning in Remain voting South Wales somehow, apart from Bridgend which I think will go Tory.
I may be clutching at straws of hope. Wales, Tory, it'd be a fucking tragedy.
It's going to be pretty horrible. Just that one very faint glimmer of hope.
I have one crumb of comfort I can offer -- a slight glimmer of straw-clutching.
Where I live, people I know see Corbyn as nothing more than a total joke. They would never vote for him in a million years.
Why is this a crumb of comfort? Because a lot of these people voted Blair and then voted Lib Dem but are now considering voting Tory.
Still doesn't sound comfortable? Ah, but our constituency always returned a Tory MP with about 50% of the vote anyway. So swing voters to the Tory are basically worthless in this constituency.
I wouldn't be surprised to see my constituency be something like 65% Tory this time. It's still only one MP though.
The moral of the story is that the key weakness with all this polling is that it never considers the distribution of the vote, only the overall total. So the headline might be for 45% Tory but if all the extra supporters are all in the heartland that was always Tory in any case, the swing is worthless.
Of course, this hope is undermined by what is apparently happening in Wales. But you never know...
Where I live, people I know see Corbyn as nothing more than a total joke. They would never vote for him in a million years.
Why is this a crumb of comfort? Because a lot of these people voted Blair and then voted Lib Dem but are now considering voting Tory.
Still doesn't sound comfortable? Ah, but our constituency always returned a Tory MP with about 50% of the vote anyway. So swing voters to the Tory are basically worthless in this constituency.
I wouldn't be surprised to see my constituency be something like 65% Tory this time. It's still only one MP though.
The moral of the story is that the key weakness with all this polling is that it never considers the distribution of the vote, only the overall total. So the headline might be for 45% Tory but if all the extra supporters are all in the heartland that was always Tory in any case, the swing is worthless.
Of course, this hope is undermined by what is apparently happening in Wales. But you never know...
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
And, Scotland.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
In what way?
Fozzie Bear
Well-Known Member
From twitter, but seems legit:
(Class does still seem to be an indicator of LibDem/UKIP vote though?)
(Class does still seem to be an indicator of LibDem/UKIP vote though?)
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I was just about to make a parallel point that Labour might be behind the Tories in every significant demographic - Cons ahead across all occupational groups and also male or female. As an example, this poll:
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017_peston_campaign_poll2.pdf
(Lab still have a lead by ethnicity - which might, as a random thought, be one of the few areas where Labour's stance on brexit might be helping them hold onto voters who were already Labour leaning).
Edit: Labour look to also be behind in every region, which is astonishing. [I say look to be, eyesight not great today, can't read this stuff very well]. Usual caveat about polls and all that... but Labour look to be heading for something worse than 1983. May well got about the same % of the vote, but to have lost all of the major demographics would be astonishing.
Last edited:
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
By way of the bloody Tory recovery, the suggestion being they could get 12 MPs north of the border.
The Tories winning in Wales, and recovering in Scotland, would indicate a bloodbath ahead.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
I think people have been under a weird misconception. There has always been a Tory percentage in Scotland. The FPTP electoral system (that they support) has worked against them. But people should remember that in 1983, the height of Thatcherism, the Tories had 21 MPs in Scotland. We're talking now about them possibly getting ten fewer than that.
The anomaly has been that they've had so few MPs in recent years.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
it occurred to me with the 5 mill/40 mill difference that scotland makes for an excellent test study populace to see what you can get away with. Hence the poll tax being rolled out there first
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Apols if somebody has already mused on this:
Even though this election is on the old boundaries, it is on the new system of individual registration. That's usually seen as harmful to Labour, particularly in areas with more transient populations. But it also affects university halls of residence, the effect of which is harder to predict. Kind of doesn't matter if every fucker is voting tory anyway, but a silver lining would be if clegg was pried out of Sheffield Hallam.
Even though this election is on the old boundaries, it is on the new system of individual registration. That's usually seen as harmful to Labour, particularly in areas with more transient populations. But it also affects university halls of residence, the effect of which is harder to predict. Kind of doesn't matter if every fucker is voting tory anyway, but a silver lining would be if clegg was pried out of Sheffield Hallam.
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
My mum (mostly Tory voter in the past) has come out for Corbyn maybe it's the pensioner 3 way lock thing 
She asked me to put a bet on him
I put a tenner on Labour being the biggest party at 14/1 and another £3 on Labour to get over 251 seats at 28/1 the bookies have been wrong before. I doubt they will be that wrong but I can't see the Tories really increasing their vote by taking from Labour or Lib Dems - only from UKIP.
maybe it's the pensioner 3 way lock thing She asked me to put a bet on him
I put a tenner on Labour being the biggest party at 14/1 and another £3 on Labour to get over 251 seats at 28/1 the bookies have been wrong before. I doubt they will be that wrong but I can't see the Tories really increasing their vote by taking from Labour or Lib Dems - only from UKIP.
bimble
floofy
This is quite something. Does it mean that things will improve once the old people die or that everyone turns into a Tory? 
YouGov | The demographics dividing Britain
YouGov | The demographics dividing Britain
Last edited:
Well, the idea that you become more conservative as you get older is a cliche as old as the hills. I don't think we should discount the idea of generational shifts in political ideas though.This is quite something. Does it mean that things will improve once the old people die or that everyone turns into a Tory?
View attachment 105285
YouGov | The demographics dividing Britain
ETA: also, given that the polling is only on about 12000 people, I doubt they really have the statistical significance they need to make the definitive claims about the gradient of those curves. A few data points will end up being hugely influential.
Yossarian
⏭️
This is quite something. Does it mean that things will improve once the old people die or that everyone turns into a Tory?
View attachment 105285
YouGov | The demographics dividing Britain
That's a depressing chart, I would have guessed the age of Tory crossover to be a lot closer to 50.
Also seems a little weird that the trend continues steadily even when people reach their 80s - you'd think that by the time people were in their 70s, they'd be hesitant about voting for the party most likely to destroy the NHS.
Similar threads
