Political polling

[kabbes]

Of YouGov's polling, I find one of the most interesting contrasts is nothing to do with voting intention at all, but what it says about how demographic lines are shifting.

Contrast this:



To these:




So ABC1 and C2DE have the same voting intentions. And yet voting intention by both qualification and pay -- two classically related factors to socioeconomic group -- both show wide divergence.

Is one conclusion from this that socioeconomic group is now pretty much independent to both qualification and pay?

 

[redsquirrel]

That's a depressing chart, I would have guessed the age of Tory crossover to be a lot closer to 50.

Also seems a little weird that the trend continues steadily even when people reach their 80s - you'd think that by the time people were in their 70s, they'd be hesitant about voting for the party most likely to destroy the NHS.

I think they must be smoothing the data, plus by the time you get to 80 the errors are going to getting pretty large.

EDIT: Here's what it actually looks like if you take the data (weighted by likelihood to vote) from their document


I'm not sure what they've done to get their chart looking like it does, maybe fit a trendline to each set?

 

[bimble]

The age chart might have a lot to do with the qualifications correlation (young people much more likely to have degrees)

 

[Yossarian]

It's hard to tell from YouGov's definitions - do well-off, middle-class retired people get classed as the ABC1s they were when they were employed, or as "economically inactive" C2DEs?

 

[redsquirrel]

Yeah fitting a linear trendline to data reproduces their chart.

 

[Yossarian]

i know a couple of people who have connections up in the labour party and supposedly theres a lot of talk at westminster over the last month about a spring election - and its source is tory mps. we've been through why its not possible etc, but nonetheless that seems to be real gossip. who knows. maybe the tories are spreading rumours to fuck with labour mps heads

What else have these sources been predicting?

 

[ska invita]

What else have these sources been predicting?

just that the shadow cabinet were prepared for this election and ready to grab it by the horns. Which means what you are witnessing is The Plan In Action.

 

[kabbes]

Yeah fitting a linear trendline to data reproduces their chart.

... which is a terrible thing to do to this data, for all kinds of reasons. It makes my statistical senses itch.

 

[The Boy]

It's hard to tell from YouGov's definitions - do well-off, middle-class retired people get classed as the ABC1s they were when they were employed, or as "economically inactive" C2DEs?

When i did phone surveys for a living (while ago now and diff org), it depended in pension: state pension only, you're an E; pension from your job then based on the job.

 

[redsquirrel]

... which is a terrible thing to do to this data, for all kinds of reasons. It makes my statistical senses itch.

Yep, I had the same itch.

 

[Old Spark]

Ipsos Mori latest

Tory 49
Lab 26
Libdem 13
Ukip 4
Green 1

On Uns tory majority 182 -80 odd losses for labour.

Ironically may help Corbyn a bit to pass the baton as most of his supporters are in the safest seats.

 

[belboid]

Dunno what the problem with a sample of 12000 is. That's more than ten times the usual poll size so will get reasonable results for each age bracket. Okay, it's obviously dodgy to say the crossover is '34' rather than mid thirties, and the figures for 70 year olds voting ukip/libscum will be a bit dodgy, but it is likely to be pretty much right.

Three reasons come to mind. The getting more conservative (small c) thing is undoubtedly true, insofar as it just means you don't want anything to change. Which has, in the past, been okay for Labour (defend the NHS, council housing, pensions), but now means stopping more immigration, so it's much much better for the tories.

Add in to that - who is more likely to live longer? The better off, who are more likely to be Tory in the first place.

Also, the rise in home ownership, getting a more and more significant part of your income/wealth from property not labour is bound to play a role in making one more conservative, less wanting to take risks, etc.

Quite what we can actually do about those things...fuck knows.

 

[William of Walworth]

Quite what we can actually do about those things...fuck knows.

Resist being/voting Tory however far into our 50s and beyond we age? But that's always going to be a minority plan ...

 

[bemused]

Looks like UKIP are going to lose over 100 council seats next week. That'll be comedy gold.

 

[8115]

Are the latest polls showing Labour on 30 points and the Conservatives on 40?

That's not really as catastrophic as all this "Jeremy Corbyn is so terrible" stuff would have you believe.

Theresa May has had an easy ride, she's been parachuted in on the back of a referendum result that I'm assuming went down pretty well with 50% of the electorate and she hasn't had to pass any major pieces of unpopular legislation to my memory. She's very popular for some reason and apart from some Brexit carping she's had a lot of backing from her party. Remember the last time you read anything from a Conservative briefing hard against her? Me neither. Let me know if I'm wrong.

 

[bemused]

She's very popular for some reason [..]

I vote Tory and I don't get the appeal to be honest. She won the leadership election because she was the most normal one on offer. But, in terms of personal appeal during the election she's really very very VERY dull. I enjoy watching Corbyn talk way more because he's animated.

This is the first election I can think of where the least likeable candidate is going to win.

 

[Old Spark]

Are the latest polls showing Labour on 30 points and the Conservatives on 40?

That's not really as catastrophic as all this "Jeremy Corbyn is so terrible" stuff would have you believe.

Theresa May has had an easy ride, she's been parachuted in on the back of a referendum result that I'm assuming went down pretty well with 50% of the electorate and she hasn't had to pass any major pieces of unpopular legislation to my memory. She's very popular for some reason and apart from some Brexit carping she's had a lot of backing from her party. Remember the last time you read anything from a Conservative briefing hard against her? Me neither. Let me know if I'm wrong.

Well no the poll out today(the first telephone poll had Tory on 49,lab on 26,libdem 13,ukip 4 and green 1.

Green defo looks low and the elderly wont answer the phone so health warning.And six weeks to go.

 

[8115]

I vote Tory and I don't get the appeal to be honest. She won the leadership election because she was the most normal one on offer. But, in terms of personal appeal during the election she's really very very VERY dull. I enjoy watching Corbyn talk way more because he's animated.

This is the first election I can think of where the least likeable candidate is going to win.

Yeah maybe that's why she's going with the "strong and stable" theme, it plays to her strengths.

 

[8115]

Well no the poll out today(the first telephone poll had Tory on 48,lab on 24 ,libdem 13,ukip 4 and green 1.

Green defo looks low and the elderly wont answer the phone so health warning.

That *is* a shame.

"the elderly wont answer the phone"

 

[bemused]

Yeah maybe that's why she's going with the "strong and stable" theme, it plays to her strengths.

I'm hoping to see some top quality memes with that awful line.

 

[redsquirrel]

Are the latest polls showing Labour on 30 points and the Conservatives on 40?

No it's closer to 25 and 45, look at the posts above.

 

[Old Spark]

That *is* a shame.

"the elderly wont answer the phone"

Its why phone polls cost more and take longer than internet polls-tricky getting representative sample.

Tho phone polls were more accurate than internet in the referendum-like they got the result correct.

 

[brogdale]

It's the hope that will kill 'em...

 

[Dogsauce]

Theresa May has had an easy ride, she's been parachuted in on the back of a referendum result that I'm assuming went down pretty well with 50% of the electorate and she hasn't had to pass any major pieces of unpopular legislation to my memory. She's very popular for some reason and apart from some Brexit carping she's had a lot of backing from her party. Remember the last time you read anything from a Conservative briefing hard against her? Me neither. Let me know if I'm wrong.

There's also an absense of spin, Cameron/Osborne were so blatantly full of shit that it might have turned off some of the trad tories and other voters. I think this comes across as straight/honest, even though she's anything but.

 

[8115]

Also May did a long old stint as Home Secretary (6 years) and I think it's standing her in good stead.

 

[bimble]

i can't find the source of these numbers (person who put it on twitter says its from yougov) but this is kind of interesting- people who define themselves as Christians are far more likely to vote tory. Jesus would not be impressed.

 

[Who PhD]

I vote Tory and I don't get the appeal to be honest. She won the leadership election because she was the most normal one on offer. But, in terms of personal appeal during the election she's really very very VERY dull. I enjoy watching Corbyn talk way more because he's animated.

This is the first election I can think of where the least likeable candidate is going to win.

Why do you vote Tory? :O

 

[Yossarian]

i can't find the source of these numbers (person who put it on twitter says its from yougov) but this is kind of interesting- people who define themselves as Christians are far more likely to vote tory. Jesus would not be impressed.

View attachment 105381

I guess it's not too surprising, what with May being a vicar's daughter who has pretty much said she thinks Brexit is the Lord's will, while it would be a big surprise to see Corbyn anywhere near a church. I bet a lot of those Christian Tories believe "Charity begins at home" and "The good Lord helps those who help themselves" are quotes from the Bible.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Charity begins at home is the most misquoted and misused off the cuff phrase in history. FACT

 

[bemused]

Why do you vote Tory? :O

I like my local MP, I stopped voting for them for two elections when the local MP was a twat. This one has been very helpful.