Political polling

[brogdale]

Seems to be a trend

Still awful of course, but would be a bit less catastrophic

The more people don't see of May, the less they like her.

 

[bi0boy]

Seems to be a trend

It's not that easy. Different pollsters and margins of error.

If I roll a dice twice and get a 3 then a 4 is that a trend?

 

[J Ed]

The more people don't see of May, the less they like her.

Well perhaps but in 2015 Cameron did basically the same thing as May is doing - avoiding the public and repetition of banal empty lsogans, perhaps not to the same extent, and it worked well for him.

 

[bemused]

The more people don't see of May, the less they like her.

I think they are playing a 'do just enough' strategy to avoid any gaffs.

 

[brogdale]

The weekly Panelbase GB poll has topline figures of:-

CON 47%(-2), LAB 30%(+3), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(-1).
Changes are from a week ago. The Conservative lead is down five points from last week, but remains at a healthy seventeen points.

With this commentary...

Polls do all seem to be agreeing that the huge Conservative lead we saw at the beginning of the campaign has faltered a bit – the difference appears to be how much it has shrunk: YouGov suggested a sharp narrowing, ICM only a tiny one, Panelbase somewhere inbetween. The best rule of thumb, as ever, remains to look at the broad trend in the polls, not read too much into any individual set of figures.

 

[William of Walworth]

I'm not going to open this link because of Mailscum (I've added a gap to the URL)
www. dailymail.co.uk/news/.../Tories-open-RECORD-22-point-lead-Labour-poll.html

But the DM seemed to have a poll yesterday (or today?) showing a 22% Tory lead

Reliable or not? No doubt the expert poll trackers (including brogdale ) will have a view but I've got to go to bed now

 

[redsquirrel]

It's actually a ICM/Guardian poll and so reliable as these things go. 22% is at the larger end of the leads but it's not out of whack

9/7/17
Kantar: CON 44%(-4), LAB 28%(+4), LDEM 11%(nc), UKIP 8%(+1).
Survation: CON 47%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%, GRN 3%

8/5/17
ICM: CON 49%, LAB 27%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6%, GRN 3%

7/5/17
YouGov: CON 47%(-1), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 11%(+1), UKIP 6%(+1)
ORB: CON 46%(+4), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 8%(nc)
Opinium: CON 46%(-1), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 7%(nc)
ICM: CON 46%(-1), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 8%(nc)

 

[brogdale]

From yesterday...
The Evening Standard has a new YouGov poll of voting intentions in London, the first London poll we’ve seen since the election was called. Topline voting intention figures are:-

CON 36%(+2), LAB 41%(+4), LDEM 14%(nc), UKIP 6%(-3).
(Changes are from the last YouGov London poll, conducted back in March)

Compared to the general election this represents an increase of one for the Conservatives, a decrease of three for Labour and an increase of six points for the Lib Dems. A two point swing from Lab to Con is significantly less than polls are indicating for Britain as a whole (currently around about a six point swing).

 

[redsquirrel]

an increase of six points for the Lib Dems.

London's shame

 

[brogdale]

London's shame

Flown from MP's property last June...

 

[bemused]

UKIP 6%(-3)

Heading in the right direction/

 

[William of Walworth]

UKIP have never performed well in (most of) London.

 

[William of Walworth]

I'd be surprised if the Tory lead** was 22% on June 9th, but very surprised indeed if it was less than 10%

**Over Labour. Not over UKIP. That'll be over 35% to 40%

 

[brogdale]

From Tom Crewe's LRB piece "What will be left?"...not actual polling, but some useful context for those interested in the psephology...

Polls can be wrong, but they’ve never been this wrong (and when they have been wrong before, it has always been in overestimating the Labour vote). The national polls in any case obscure a more fundamental problem: Labour’s terminal collapse in Scotland, combined with the distortions of the first-past-the-post system, have created structural conditions that make it impossible for Labour to win a majority without a swing of dramatic proportions. In 2015 it needed a swing of 4.6 per cent to win a majority of one; now, in order to achieve the same feat, it needs a swing of 8.7 per cent, equivalent to a national poll lead of 11 per cent or three million votes. Having lost so much ground in 2015, it has many more seats to win, but is competitive in fewer of them, because the Tories entrenched themselves in English and Welsh marginals while the SNP piled up unassailable majorities in much of Scotland. According to the Fabian Society, what’s required is something like the vote share Labour achieved in 2001, when, starting from a much stronger position, it won 413 seats to the Conservatives’ 166. And all this, remember, to win a majority of one. If Labour loses badly in June, it will be even harder next time.

So, from 15 to 20% behind to 11% ahead; that is Corbyn's "mountain".

 

[tim]

Oh yeah, I forgot that revolution coming.

So did Louis the Sixteenth.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Latest Yougov poll

Con 45
Lab 32
LD 8
UKP 6

As with other polls - labour creeping up.

 

[kabbes]

Apologies for asking this here rather than doing my own bloody research, but what the hey: when the pollsters do their polling, do they return to the same people or do they resample each time? Because if the former then I can see obvious sampling pitfalls but if the latter then the stability sure does bear out their claimed sampling error, but it's quite surprising.

 

[The Boy]

Apologies for asking this here rather than doing my own bloody research, but what the hey: when the pollsters do their polling, do they return to the same people or do they resample each time? Because if the former then I can see obvious sampling pitfalls but if the latter then the stability sure does bear out their claimed sampling error, but it's quite surprising.

The latter, afaiu. Probably depends on the pollster tho, and online polls obviously rely on a pool of willing monkeys.

 

[chilango]

Disappointingly I've only been polled once so far this election

 

[kabbes]

The latter, afaiu. Probably depends on the pollster tho, and online polls obviously rely on a pool of willing monkeys.

I have a suspicion, then, that the stability derives more from their adjustments to the data from the results of the polling. So it creates an impression of stability, but this could be misleading. Hence the consistent mispolling of recent years.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Ipsos MORI

Con 49 (nc)
Lab 34 (+8)
LD 7 (-7)
Greens 3 (+2)
UKIP 2 (-2)

(brackets are from last ipsos mori poll).

Labour hoovering up the lib dem vote.

I would love it if labours' final vote share was bigger than what Blair got in 2005 (35.2%).

 

[Dogsauce]

UKIP vanishing to nothing there! Fully cannibalised by May, the 2% rump is probably just those still angry about the gays causing bad weather.

I wish these polls would routinely include whether respondents had changed opinion recently, or who they voted for in the last election, as I'm massively curious as to where people are moving from - too often we get simplistic narratives about swings from one to the other based on numbers alone, but it wouldn't pick up say two percent of people moving from UKIP to Labour and a separate two percent going from Labour to the Tories, it would just presume a direct UKIP to Tory pathway. Also data on intention to vote and previous abstention.

 

[Rimbaud]

Ipsos MORI

Con 49 (nc)
Lab 34 (+8)
LD 7 (-7)
Greens 3 (+2)
UKIP 2 (-2)

(brackets are from last ipsos mori poll).

Labour hoovering up the lib dem vote.

I would love it if labours' final vote share was bigger than what Blair got in 2005 (35.2%).

I think it will be, you know. If Labour use their manpower to speak to people about the manifesto their vote will continue to increase a little further until the election. Also, Registration has surged among students who are overwhelmingly backing Corbyn - I think a high turnout from young people will mean that the actual Labour vote will be higher than the polls predict.

As I said on another thread - there were changes made to the way polling data is weighted after 2015, and as far as I can tell these changes are designed to account for young Labour voters being less likely to actually register on time/turn out on the day. I think the Labour vote is a lot more motivated this election, so it could turn out that the changes to polling data are an over-correction, and in fact understate Labour's support.

I'm going to predict Labour's final vote share will be in the region of 35%-40%.

 

[Rimbaud]

Are there any up to date polls carried out in Scotland only? Any sign of a Labour recovery there? The last one on the wikipedia page for 2017 Opinion Polling is from over a month ago. Would be nice if they knock the Tories back into third place.

 

[JTG]

So, Labour definitely seem to be on an upward tick just now. Still three weeks out, anything could happen good or bad.

We know that Labour's so called in built advantage - whereby they could win an election on 35% of the vote so long as the Tories didn't get more than a few points ahead of them - could well be getting blown out of the water if those 40+% Tory figures hold. Also, Scotland.

But how close does it need to get before it starts going back in Labour's favour? Any thoughts/links/guesses?

 

[JTG]

Based on current polls, I'm more convinced that the Greens won't get close in Bristol West now. Every time I go down there I see more and more Labour posters/signs and not as many Greens as two years ago. Reckon left leaning Lib Dems and Greens down there are gonna pile into Labour now.

 

[hot air baboon]

Well perhaps but in 2015 Cameron did basically the same thing as May is doing - avoiding the public and repetition of banal empty lsogans, perhaps not to the same extent, and it worked well for him.

its deja-vu all over again - he also tried the personal / party branding thing as "David Cameron's Conservatives" when he was supposedly more popular then the party - which was a total wash-out electorally at the 2007 Ealing by-election & quickly dropped

 

[Sue]

Are there any up to date polls carried out in Scotland only? Any sign of a Labour recovery there? The last one on the wikipedia page for 2017 Opinion Polling is from over a month ago. Would be nice if they knock the Tories back into third place.

No idea about polls but I'd be extremely surprised if their fortunes were to revive -- they really are seen as a complete dead duck by the former Labour voters in know.

The SNP will lose some seats for sure (they did ridiculously well last time let's not forget) and there will be much more tactical voting. Labour may pick up a few in the melee but revival? Nah.

 

[Wilf]

Apologies for asking this here rather than doing my own bloody research, but what the hey: when the pollsters do their polling, do they return to the same people or do they resample each time? Because if the former then I can see obvious sampling pitfalls but if the latter then the stability sure does bear out their claimed sampling error, but it's quite surprising.

I think the distinction is between normal polls and 'panel surveys', the latter being the same people.

 

[Wilf]

So, Labour definitely seem to be on an upward tick just now. Still three weeks out, anything could happen good or bad.

We know that Labour's so called in built advantage - whereby they could win an election on 35% of the vote so long as the Tories didn't get more than a few points ahead of them - could well be getting blown out of the water if those 40+% Tory figures hold. Also, Scotland.

But how close does it need to get before it starts going back in Labour's favour? Any thoughts/links/guesses?

Looks like a bit of a bounce around the manifesto certainly and scope for more gains by pushing the nationalisation message. However, we'll have to see whether the Tories also get a manifesto boost - parties usually do, though their manifesto does look particularly shit. Overall though, it seems like a clash of forces to me. Labour have something to tap into with regard to the idea of decency, state owndership, we don't need to keep going down the same path etc. But they are just too far behind and if they were to get closer in the polls they would undergo some serious 'labour's plans will cost you £x' wailing. The other thing of course is Corbyn. I'm not making some crude 'Corbyn is shit' point and the more people see him in the this campaign he probably starts to look better. But the 'Corbyn would be a shit PM' thing is well established and there's just not enough time to challenge it. Apart from the odd rogue poll I can't see Labour getting within 10% of the Tories. Which of course adds up to a pretty catastrophic outcome. But you can see what Labour's future might have been like if they'd been united and pushing these policies for the last 18 months.