Political polling

[butchersapron]

Were you thinking of this stuff?

That's the one yeah, thanks.

 

[butchersapron]

London:

CON 32%, LAB 45%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 9% – this reflects a swing of 5.5% from Con to Lab since the general election, pretty much in line with that YouGov’s current GB polls are showing.

 

[brogdale]

Latest MORI:-

The monthly Ipsos MORI political monitor for the Standard shows the two main parties neck and neck:-

CON 35%(+1), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 10%(-1).

This is the first time MORI have shown the Conservatives catching Labour since January 2012, when David Cameron was enjoying a boost from his European “veto”. Looking at the wider context, while this poll may well be an outlier in the Conservatives’ favour, the underlying average lead does seem to have got down to the mid-single figures, meaning normal random variation will sometimes split out polls with tiny or non-existant Labour leads.

Hmmm.....would ----> NL 3 short of maj. with the LD scum down to 15

 

[butchersapron]

Observer/Opinium:

LAB moves to 11% lead in Opinium /Observer poll
Lab 38 (+2)
Con 27 (-2)
Ukip 17 (+2)
LD 9 (+2)

 

[brogdale]

Observer/Opinium:

LAB moves to 11% lead in Opinium /Observer poll
Lab 38 (+2)
Con 27 (-2)
Ukip 17 (+2)
LD 9 (+2)

Love that LD "+2"...taking them to 9

 

[butchersapron]

Love that LD "+2"...taking them to 9

I like the false hope it will give them. 3 other big polls tonight.

edit: seems not, just one more to come.

 

[butchersapron]

ComRes for Mirror/Independent:

Con 32% (+4)
Lab 35% (-1)
UKP 16% (-1)
LD 9% (-1)
OTH 8% (-1)

 

[Delroy Booth]

Opinium / Observer

38 (+2) Lab
27 (-2) Con
17 (+2) UKIP
9 (+2) LD

Polls are really all over the place, but the important thing is that Labour is staying consistently within the 35-40% range they need to win. Even at the lower end of their range, like the ComRes poll butchers posted above, they're still well on track to win.

Is 17% an outlier for UKIP? Would there be a methodological thing going on here? As most polls have shown UKIP shrinking back to single figures after the party conference season.

 

[butchersapron]

Posted earlier. UKIP been steady around that every month in this poll - been as high as 21% before. And i would saymost polls have had them consistent between 10-15% since conference with 12/13 seeming to be the trend.

 

[butchersapron]

Note they are also steady at 16% in the Comres one.

 

[brogdale]

Note they are also steady at 16% in the Comres one.

Anywhere between that and 20% is perfect polling for the 'kippers; max damage to the tory scum, but yielding no actual representation for the nutjobs.

Did folk see the Basingstoke QT audience lapping up the 'kipper line from Diane James? The tory scum must quake when they here such a reception.

 

[shagnasty]

Opinium / Observer

38 (+2) Lab
27 (-2) Con
17 (+2) UKIP
9 (+2) LD

Polls are really all over the place, but the important thing is that Labour is staying consistently within the 35-40% range they need to win. Even at the lower end of their range, like the ComRes poll butchers posted above, they're still well on track to win.

Is 17% an outlier for UKIP? Would there be a methodological thing going on here? As most polls have shown UKIP shrinking back to single figures after the party conference season.

There was an article i read it's not the lead ,it's keeping to 38-40% that counts for labour

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

There was an article i read it's not the lead ,it's keeping to 38-40% that counts for labour

I would be interested in reading that article

 

[SikhWarrioR]

What supprises me is the fact that so many people think that voting ed millipede's neo-labour back in to office in 2015 is gonna make any real difference to the Torlibdem coalition sorry to puncture your balloon but voting ed millipede and co back into power in 2015 is just gonna be a classic case of "Same corporate/bankster friendly shit different name" in my humble opinion

 

[William of Walworth]

I think 35% to 40% for Labour isn't that good at all. They're helped a lot by the Lib Dem collapse and by the split in Tory/UKIP support, but if Labour were anywhere really near convincing 'so many' people, they'd be consistently above 40% by now.

 

[butchersapron]

It's enough to win, they don't have to convince everyone, that's the point. And they have pretty consistently polled above 40%

 

[William of Walworth]

I get the winning post level thing, but their polling's been much more in the 35% to 40% range in most of these polls, surely?

 

[butchersapron]

I get the winning post level thing, but their polling's been much more in the 35% to 40% range in most of these polls, surely?

In the last month it's dipped from over 40% (in yg dailies) to mid-high 30s. Whilst only the yg polls have the tories even getting within anywhere even close to starting to look like they could even get close to the figures they need as a min, never mind the labour collapse they also need. This 40% figure is nice but not necessary.

 

[butchersapron]

Todays YG has just come out btw:

CON 33%
LAB 39%
LDEM 10%
UKIP 11%

That represents a large labour victory. All the others last night would result in a labour win - and one of them a very large victory - and all with under 40%.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

What supprises me is the fact that so many people think that voting ed millipede's neo-labour back in to office in 2015 is gonna make any real difference to the Torlibdem coalition sorry to puncture your balloon but voting ed millipede and co back into power in 2015 is just gonna be a classic case of "Same corporate/bankster friendly shit different name" in my humble opinion

what is a bankster?

 

[Kaka Tim]

I think 35% to 40% for Labour isn't that good at all. They're helped a lot by the Lib Dem collapse and by the split in Tory/UKIP support, but if Labour were anywhere really near convincing 'so many' people, they'd be consistently above 40% by now.

But considering that at the last election they were turfed out with only 29% of the vote having the lost the trust of much of the electorate, that rating in the high 30s is a considerable reversal of fortunes. The tories have yet to recover from their 1997 drubbing - and would give their right arm for labours poll ratings. The days of parties winning more than 40% of the vote are in the past.

 

[William of Walworth]

That's a fair point KT, butchers' points too.

I suppose my over pessimistic tone came from the Creeping Fear that the Tories might somehow still scrape back in despite all the data pointing against that at the moment...

 

[Kaka Tim]

That's a fair point KT, butchers' points too.

I suppose my over pessimistic tone came from the Creeping Fear that the Tories might somehow still scrape back in despite all the data pointing against that at the moment...

The spectre of 1992 eh?

 

[William of Walworth]

 

[butchersapron]

Interesting read: The Conservatives were not always so unpopular in the north of England—can they win it back?

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Interesting read: The Conservatives were not always so unpopular in the north of England—can they win it back?

typically interesting article from Kellner and one that really challenges quite lot of preconceptions, I do think he does underestimate tribalism though and how tribalism is relflected by the popularity of the the populist or far right as an alternative to Labour as opposed to the Tories...

 

[butchersapron]

Bye bye caroline/council:

The BBC have commissioned a very rare creature – a local government voting intention poll for a single council, in this case a ComRes poll of Brighton and Hove. The reason, naturally enough, is because of Brighton’s status as being the only Green party council in the country. The poll does not bode well for it remaining that way – it shows the Green party down by about 10 points since the local elections in 2011, Labour up by about 7 points.

 

[brogdale]

Bye bye caroline/council:

Yep, there's no way she'll be able to hang on, especially as the 2010 LD student vote swings to Lab. I'm sure that Lab will gain back Kemptown for the same reason.

 

[redsquirrel]

Interesting read: The Conservatives were not always so unpopular in the north of England—can they win it back?

Cheers for that, be an interesting to see the equivalent data for Scotland and Wales.

 

[butchersapron]

Todays YG:

LAB 40%
CON 32%
UKIP 13%
LD 10%