Today's TNS BRMB:-
Unusual figures they may be, according to YG's Anthony, but I wouldn't mind betting that the eventual poll narrowing at the 'real deal' (2015 GE) produces something pretty close to this set. Fed in the
'Electoral Calculus' it produces a very small
Lab majority of 20.
I think that might be my prediction?
Still a lot of time between then and now though brogdale. All sorts could happen. If the economic news stays relatively good all the way to 2015 (it probably won't) and if the Tories avoid scandal, catastrophe and in-fighting (they can't) then the results will probably be close just like the TNS poll. 34% would be a good showing for Cameron all things considered, what with UKIP and the Lib Dem collapse.
But there's plenty to go wrong before then. I don't think the economic growth we've got at the moment is particularly strong or that there's any guarentee that it'll last through 2015. The world economy still in a very unstable condition, the situation in Europe is bleak, I mean the US is right now only a few days away from default. There's all sorts of risks and stumbling blocks to navigate until 2015. Let's see if the Coulson trial and all that stuff makes an discernable impct on the polls, amongst others.
Oh yeah, accept all of that, but a prediction is just that. If I was a betting man, (which I'm not - Father was addicted
), those are pretty much the numbers I'd back right now.
Given what you say about all the external threats to the economy, I still think that we can see the determination with which the tory scum are engineering a "recovery" simply by looking at the desperation with which they're inflating the housing bubble. Sure the NI trials stuff will produce 'froth' and noise, but I'm pretty sure that the consistent lead the tories have held in polling about economic competence will basically hold firm. So I predict that their
2010 37% will only be knocked back a few % points. Clearly they were close to 'core' with that share of the vote, (what with the Clegg effect and all that), and I think that, even given all the nasty shit they're up to,
34% will still schlep out to vote for them.
I actually think it will be very hard for Miliband to move the 2010 Labour share of
30% much higher than
35/36%. The weak polling of the leader and the key economic competence will limit their gains.
The LD's 2010
24% of national share of the popular vote will obviously be destroyed (although they might just get a little more than
9%?), but their seats tally will still probably be 20 or just over.
Lastly the 'kippers. Putting them on
13% is, I think, more realistic than some of the very high figures of 20% produced mid-term etc. It would still be a huge event for UK politics, and condemn the tories to opposition.
Would, of course, all produce a weak, fragile Lab majority administration.
Just a prediction, that's all. But if in May 2015 that pans out I will be crowing and reminding folks they heard it here first!
)
