butchersapron
Bring back hanging
YouGov:
LAB 39%
CON, 32%
UKIP 11%
LD 9%
LAB 39%
CON, 32%
UKIP 11%
LD 9%
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Labour won't need to form a coalition with anybody, with poll ratings like that.
It's interesting to see that the polls have settled into the normal pattern, with Labour back in the 38-40 range they've been in most of the last few years, and the Tories on about 30-32. The Tories have been in damage limitation mode quite a lot, telling themselves the economy is all magically sorted and the polls are creeping their way. This graph has been tweeted out a few times by leading Tories in what likes like some damage limitation.
Which is all very reassuring until you realise it's only one polling company (YouGov) and it's only 6 months. Expand that graph out to look at the long-term trend over you 2 years and you would get a graph that painted a much different picture. They're starting to resemble the Republicans a little bit I think, convinced the booming British economy is going save them even if the polls don't have much evidence for it.
Anyway saw two interesting polls today. This poll is a candid look from Tim Montgomerie at conservativehome at some polling about how the Tories would govern on their own, and how they're percieved, and this one from Yougov showing just how damaging immigration is as a political issue for Labour. Complete with this intimidating graph.
Which is all very reassuring until you realise it's only one polling company (YouGov) and it's only 6 months. Expand that graph out to look at the long-term trend over you 2 years and you would get a graph that painted a much different picture. They're starting to resemble the Republicans a little bit I think, convinced the booming British economy is going save them even if the polls don't have much evidence for it.
Anyway saw two interesting polls today. This poll is a candid look from Tim Montgomerie at conservativehome at some polling about how the Tories would govern on their own, and how they're percieved, and this one from Yougov showing just how damaging immigration is as a political issue for Labour. Complete with this intimidating graph.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
We've had that before. In response, I pointed out that the trend line doesn't fit the data, and only a moron would attempt to put a linear trend through it anyway, and that I could do a better job in MS Paint, which I then did:It's interesting to see that the polls have settled into the normal pattern, with Labour back in the 38-40 range they've been in most of the last few years, and the Tories on about 30-32. The Tories have been in damage limitation mode quite a lot, telling themselves the economy is all magically sorted and the polls are creeping their way. This graph has been tweeted out a few times by leading Tories in what likes like some damage limitation.
Hahah sorry kabbes I can't believe I missed that. Top stuff 
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Wallace actually says in that piece:
This is someone they employ to analyse this stuff.
This is someone they employ to analyse this stuff.
They actually employ the idiot that came up with that graph? Wow.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
He's there as a booster really, but when it can be undermined so easily he's probably not helping - nor is the fact that people can always just point to to this:
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Easy to over-complicate the psephology sometimes....
Look at blue line on left of graph = could not form government; look at blue line on right of graph = fucked.
prunus
Tick tock.
On the other hand that purple line is very very unfunny indeed. It might (will) help fuck the Tories, for which hallelujah, but that's a fuck of a lot of frothing hate-filled right wing loons....
They were always there, but they previously were propping up the Tories.
The Tories are in serious danger of never being able to form a government again. Ironically, this is largely because we have a FPTP system. Ironic because the AV camp were telling us threeish years ago that we should vote for AV in order to prevent the Tories ever forming a government again.
prunus
Tick tock.
Yes, I guess this is so. It's just while they were less specifically identifiable I suppose I was able to delude myself that such people were few and far between.
Yes, I live under a rock.
Louis MacNeice
Autumn Journalist
Or a lot of people with legitimate fears over things such as employment (e.g. rates of pay, security and availability) and provision of services (e.g. affordability, access, quantity and quality) who have seen no convincing or inspiring left alternative for a so long that one is now hard to even imagine...plus some frothing hate filled right wing loons.
Cheers - Louis MacNeice
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
The existence of a frothing far-right party helps the tories look like a saner option, that's a bit of a concern (in that they can use this as justification for doing some pretty nasty stuff by there being someone on the scene offering to be that little bit nastier - something which Labour will also do).
The strength of public concern on immigration and 'benefit cheats' just shows how good a job the press has done of making these an issue. Just imagine if they'd used their powers benevolently and gone after the tax cheats, greedy executives and crooked utilities rather than playing the divide-and-rule game for the benefit of their proprietors and friends. We're already seeing a ramping up of negative stories ahead of the 'Roma Invasion' - wait and see how Cameron and Crosby will exploit that.
The strength of public concern on immigration and 'benefit cheats' just shows how good a job the press has done of making these an issue. Just imagine if they'd used their powers benevolently and gone after the tax cheats, greedy executives and crooked utilities rather than playing the divide-and-rule game for the benefit of their proprietors and friends. We're already seeing a ramping up of negative stories ahead of the 'Roma Invasion' - wait and see how Cameron and Crosby will exploit that.
no it isn't. it's a lot of people saying they'll vote ukip.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
People like my uncle who's now a paid-up member, early retirement from a public-sector job (college lecturer) with one of those 'gold-plated pensions', comfortable, suburban, second home in rural france, untroubled but unremarkable life but plenty of time to look for stuff to grumble about that most likely isn't there. A view on the world based on stuff he's probably read in the Express. Actual quote: 'England is lost now, it's a sharia state'. O RLY?
Maybe overharsh ... but because friends and relatives of Urban people support UKIP, or even just sympathise, and for whatever reason, doesn't mean they're not seriously underinformed politically -- however understandable or analysable the reasons for their 'concerns' 
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Those that aren't frothing hate filled right wing loons can be very erm gullible about dominant media narratives about foreigners. etc though. And overtempted by/underquestioning of the easy shots that UKIP fire. The two things feed off each other.
Luckily most polls still show that UKIP is essentially a fringe party though.
Spose I was just remembering what I overhear from people round and about, far too often. Anecdotes in pubs and so forth.
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Thats not how UKIP are playing. UKIP have dropped there workfare forever welfare policy and currently have no welfare policy. They've just appointed some hippy co-ordinator for disabled people called Star. Farage criticised the go home vans. They are still anti-immigrant, but they dont have to be anti-immigrant in practice, they are anti-claimant but can pretend to be fair and reasonable, they are presenting a myth that immigration, benefits, all this can be sorted out with no one getting hurt just by a bit of British common sense. Which means that when the Tories go swivel-eyed UKIP will outflank them to the left, knowing dissident Tories and other right wingers will stay with them because they know its a charade and because of their position on Europe. Cameron's fucked.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Today YG:
LAB 38%
CON 32%
UKIP 13%
LDEM 10%
Populus:
Lab 39 (+2)
Cons 34 (=)
LD 11 (-3)
UKIP 10 (+2)
LAB 38%
CON 32%
UKIP 13%
LDEM 10%
Populus:
Lab 39 (+2)
Cons 34 (=)
LD 11 (-3)
UKIP 10 (+2)
Sometimes true, and its clearer to me than you might think that I can see it. In fact what you say's probably more often true than not. But there's a still a fair few around who are just plain gullible -- going no further.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
ie. a guess, and piss-poor one at that.
Perfectly sound reasoning. He's arbitrarily picked three electoral phenomena that would happen to lead to a Tory victory and applied them to the current polls.
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