Political polling

[goldenecitrone]

18-24/ 25-39 / 40-59 / 60

Con 27 31 32 37
Lab 42 42 44 32

Latest Youguv poll. Only the over 60s still voting more for the tories.

 

[brogdale]

18-24/ 25-39 / 40-59 / 60

Con 27 31 32 37
Lab 42 42 44 32

Latest Youguv poll. Only the over 60s still voting more for the tories.

The latest cross-breaks (from today's ST) show some interesting, (& fairly consistent of late), patterns:-

• Only 78% of 2010 tories still intending to vote for the scum, and a full 14% of the drifters going to UKIP.

• The tories (weak) 34% is actually being held up by voting intentions in the 18 -24 cohort; the group least likely to vote.

• The LDs are again shown holding onto only about a third of thie 2010 vote, (36%), with an equal % stating their intent to support Lab.

 

[where to]

48% of 18-24 yr olds (who will vote) will be voting Tory or UKIP?? that's a surprising one to say the least.

 

[butchersapron]

They've got the lab/tory stuff the wrong way round there.

 

[Quartz]

48% of 18-24 yr olds (who will vote) will be voting Tory or UKIP?? that's a surprising one to say the least.

Why are you surprised? They've seen the disaster that was the last Labour government, but aren't old enough to have good memories of the disaster of the Major years.

 

[butchersapron]

Why are you surprised? They've seen the disaster that was the last Labour government, but aren't old enough to have good memories of the disaster of the Major years.

Because it's a mistake - they've taken the labour 18-24 vote for the tory one there and vice-versa. The usual tory polling for this age group in the mid-20s/low 30s at best (even been as low as 17% recently) and the labour one in the mid 40s. Use your loaf.

 

[goldenecitrone]

Why are you surprised? They've seen the disaster that was the last Labour government, but aren't old enough to have good memories of the disaster of the Major years.

What about the disaster of the Coalition years? £30,000 university fees, cutting of EMA, massive youth unemployment. And still you think 48% will be voting Tory?

 

[butchersapron]

Why are you surprised? They've seen the disaster that was the last Labour government, but aren't old enough to have good memories of the disaster of the Major years.

This would explain the consistent - sometimes huge - labour lead in this group then would it?

 

[nino_savatte]

If you're over 60 and thinking of voting UKIP, you're an old fool.

 

[Quartz]

What about the disaster of the Coalition years?

They're blaming it on Labour.

And still you think 48% will be voting Tory?

I doubt it. I hope not, but I will respect their decision to do so. They have the right to be wrong.

 

[butchersapron]

They're blaming it on Labour.



I doubt it. I hope not, but I will respect their decision to do so. They have the right to be wrong.

Can someone ask Quartz why the polls consistently show labour leads in this age group - sometimes huge leads.

 

[goldenecitrone]

They're blaming it on Labour.

You're saying that young voters blame Labour for the actions of the coalition government and will vote tory to punish Labour for the actions of the coalition. That makes sense.

 

[Quartz]

You're saying that young voters blame Labour for the actions of the coalition government and will vote tory to punish Labour for the actions of the coalition. That makes sense.

I don't understand it either.

 

[butchersapron]

I don't understand it either.

That's because a) your post makes no sense and b) the thing that you say is happening is not happening. 18-24 year olds are not supporting the tories. Labour have a comfortable lead in this age group and have done so since the election. The 44% tory figure in todays YG poll is a mistake - this is the labour figure. As the briefest perusal of the actual tables (pdf) shows.

 

[shagnasty]

If you're over 60 and thinking of voting UKIP, you're an old fool.

I am in that group and i will certainly not vote ukip or tory

 

[butchersapron]

Couple today:

Populus
Lab 39 (=)
Cons 31 (-1)
LD 11 (-1)
UKIP 10 (+1)
Oth 7 (-1)

Guardian/ICM
Lab 38 (nc)
CON 30 (-4)
LD 13 (+1) UK
UKP 10 (+2)
Others 10 (+2)

Haven't seen today's YG yet.

edit: Further confirmation of yesterdays YG 18-24 tory/labour vote mix-up, the Populus poll has tory support in this age group at 11%.

 

[brogdale]

edit: Further confirmation of yesterdays YG 18-24 tory/labour vote mix-up, the Populus poll has tory support in this age group at 11%.

that's way off YG's 34%, though.

Basically "32,39,10 & 10" look pretty stable now.

 

[Delroy Booth]

..... the Populus poll has tory support in this age group at 11%.

They're in such big trouble in the long term, aren't they?

 

[butchersapron]

that's way off YG's 34%, though.

Basically "32,39,10 & 10" look pretty stable now.

This is down to the reallocation of DK's and WNVs (or some technical thing) in that particular poll i suspect - what it does show is a stable 18-24 tory support around the low 10s - no sudden lurch to tory support - when they do that technical thing. When they don't (i.e with weighted turnout) the tories score around 30% in that age group (labour around 50%).

 

[butchersapron]

They're in such big trouble in the long term, aren't they?

They're in even similar or worse bother with the two age groups directly above this one - serious long term decline is a cumin in.

 

[brogdale]

The LD's flat-lining around the 10% shows that Clegg's coalition with the tories has, at least, achieved the final demise of the earlier (1988) one that brought his miserable party into existance. He's taken the liberals right back to the levels of support they had throughout most of the mid 20thC.

 

[Dogsauce]

They're in such big trouble in the long term, aren't they?

Old people are living longer, and it's said that people get more right-wing as they get older. Plus I'm not convinced that the younger generation are really on board with the whole common good thing, there's a lot of consumerist me me me shit going on (not that Labour are really sold on 'common good' anymore either tbh).

I look forward to getting old and looking down on political leaders younger than myself (Osborne already is) and thinking what the fuck are these children doing running things? Sooner or later we'll get a Prime Minister that takes selfies all the time and shit like that to create the illusion that they're some kind of normal human. Unless we hang PR people in the streets this stuff is going to happen.

 

[butchersapron]

Bit of reverse polling from YG:

 

[where to]

the high lib dem figure perhaps the most interesting finding there. the hatred is deep.

 

[butchersapron]

the high lib dem figure perhaps the most interesting finding there. the hatred is deep.

Yes, and a real turn around from prior to 2010 where they were seen as the one you might not want to vote for but would do it to fuck up labour or tory.

 

[butchersapron]

Pretty clear where we are now surely?

TNS-BMRB
LAB 38% (+2)
CON 30% (-4)
UKIP 12% (-1)
OTHER 11% (+2)
LD 8% (-1)

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

They're in such big trouble in the long term, aren't they?

It's a milder but definite version of what is happening to The Republicans, the geography and demographics are slowly getting narrower.

 

[Fozzie Bear]

From another angle:

Four in 10 people are "alienated" from Britain's political parties and say they will not consider voting for any of them, according to new research.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...in-ten-voters-reject-all-parties-8940389.html

 

[butchersapron]

Not one, not two, not even three, but four polls today (oh hang on, i mentioned one yesterday, so make that three):

Populus (twice weekly)
LAB 40%
CON 31%
LDEM 11%
UKIP 10%

Ipsos MORI (monthly)
LAB 38%(+3)
CON 32%(-3)
UKIP 8%(-2)
LDEM 8%(-1),

TNS-BRMB
LAB 38%(+2)
CON 30%(-4)
UKIP 12%(-1)
LDEM 8%(-1),

YG (daily)
LAB 40%
CON 32%
UKIP 13%
LDEM 10%,

Bit of analysis here, but basically:

Bringing it all together the Labour lead does appear to be creeping upwards again. While one shouldn’t get too excited by the big jumps in MORI and TNS (both are partially reversions to the mean after unusual polls last month), the gradual underlying trend does look as if Labour’s lead is moving back up to 7 or 8 points having narrowed earlier this year.

 

[Delroy Booth]

Another good analysis on the decline of the Tory party in the North of England

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/10/21/why-northerners-dont-vote-tory/

In the end, the Tories’ problem is not what they do; it’s what they are. Their trouble is their brand. They lost Scotland because they lost their reputation as a unionist party and came to be seen as an English party. They are losing the North because they are seen increasingly as a Southern party. This need not stop them winning a future election: there are enough constituencies in the Midlands and the South which, when added to the Tories’ isolated seats in the North, can give them a parliamentary majority. But few, even on the Conservative benches, would regard that as a wholly healthy prospect.