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Political polling

Fez909 said:
Well, yeah, it HAS to be irrelevant with everyone polling so badly, so consistantly. Do you know when the last time a leader was in positive numbers was? Just for curiosity sake.
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I would hazard a guess at cameron immediately after the coalition was announced. Will check.
 
butchersapron said:
Series of rather outdated party leader polls on the right here, scroll down a few clicks. Doesn't really map onto the approval one they do now though.
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So according to those polls, the minute you're in power your personal approval rating drops.* Browns went immediately from positive to the -30s. Camerons was +30 all the way up until they stop having data (before the election), and the same for Clegg.

*As you say, it's not exactly the same as the current one, but can any inferences be drawn from Milliband being in negative even while out of power? I guess not, unless there exists a current approval type one for Clegg/Cameron which shows the swing from +ve to -ve after getting into power.
 
I think it matters in terms of the way that you can be portrayed in the media (chicken an egg though) but given the nature of the voting system, that's it party based i don't think it actually comes into play unless you have a particularly hated/loved leader. I do remember saving a table about thatchers personal rating before each election, i'll try and find that but i fear it was on the laptop i had nicked.
 
But if Milliband is indeed the only leader who has negative approvals before coming into power, then he would be a particularly hated/disliked leader. And I do get the impression that he is universally disliked, tbf.
 
Yep. It's not an electoral hinderance. Not when people vote for parties primarily. It can be when you're in power and your face can be tied to something like the poll tax. But not now, not for Miliband.
 
Meanwhile in fecking la-la LD land....Clegg @ this morning's press conference....

12.06pm GMT

Q: Opinion polls show you consistently stuck in fourth place behind Ukip. Why is that? And when are you going to hit the panic button?

Clegg says the Lib Dems will stay the course. If the Lib Dems had not been willing to take tough decisions on the economy, the country would be worse off.

The party has clearly taken a hit, he says. It has to make the case why people should "lend us their vote" at the general election.

But there is only one party grounded in the centre, he says.

People know you cannot trust Labour with the economy.

But they equally know that the Tories cannot be trusted to guarantee a fair recovery, he says.
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:D
 
They really have nothing to sell now do they - they should be trying all sorts of mad shit right now, instead we get this centrist pap. They're not even going to go down fighting.
 
It seems like it's a long term trend anyway, so you're right butchers.
8NiVn7F.png

True, all three men have suffered negative ratings for much of this Parliament. But things were not always like this. Today’s sustained, across-the-board contempt is historically unprecedented. It reflects not just the particular deficiencies of the three men but something deeper about the way British politics has evolved since the Second World War.
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more: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/09/16/voters-turn-against-pygmy-politics/
 
Today's latest polls....

This morning’s YouGov poll for the S[c]unm had topline figures of:-

CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%.

The regular tracker on today’s poll was best party on issues, which showed the parties’ normal strengths and weaknesses – Labour lead the Conservatives on the NHS (by 12 points), education (by 4 points) and unemployment (by 4 points), the Conservatives were ahead on immigration (by 11 points), law and order (by 10 points) and the economy in general (by 5 points). The two parties were virtually neck-and-neck on Europe (Conservatives 19%, Labour 20%) – and yes, that is typical. I sometimes see the assumption out there that Europe is a strong issue for the Conservatives or a weakness for Labour, it is really not the case.

Meanwhile the twice weekly poll for Populus, out yesterday, had topline figures of:-

CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 9%.
Full tabs are here.
Usual source.
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brogdale said:
YouGov's weekly ST numbers...


Anthony also refers to the latest Scottish Independence referendum polling....are we getting close to the point where such polling/analysis deserves its own thread?
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Nah keep it in here until there needs to be a specific referendum thread probably early next year
 
The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight and has topline figures of:-

CON 32%(+4), LAB 37%(+1), LDEM 9%(-2), UKIP 11%(-1).

Changes are from ComRes’s previous phone poll (as opposed to their parallel online polls for the Sunday Indy) conducted at the end of last month.

Meanwhile today’s twice-weekly Populus poll also recorded a five point lead for Labour, in their case the topline figures were:-

CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 7%.

Populus tabs are here.
Usual source
Click to expand...

Political betting pick up on the ComRes question relating to Nick Boles' warning about the electorate rumbling that the vermin are party of the rich...

In other questions a majority of those polled said they believed that the Conservative Party only represents the interests of the rich.

This comes comes after Nick Boles, the Planning Minister and an ally of David Cameron, warned last week that “the single biggest problem the Conservative Party faces is being seen as the party of the rich.” Some 51% agree with the statement that “the Conservative Party only represents the interests of the rich,” while 42% disagreed.

This perception is shared by 18% of those who voted Tory in 2010 agree as do 10% of current CON supporters. Women (54%) are more likely to agree than men (47%).
Click to expand...
 
butchersapron said:
Interesting start to a series of UKIP centred polls - and remember this is only labours 115th target seat. (This is Thanet South) Combine this UKIP rise with lib-dem-->labour elsewhere and the tories are dead in the water.

View attachment 43999
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Yep, pretty stunning polling there, but planet Fanet really does represent almost perfect territory for UKIP. The conjuction of a base of elderly, formerly tory, white working class, social deprivation, high rates of migrant housing (inc.Roma), low levels of educational attainment and a proximity to the ports all work well for the 'kippers. Added to which Falange is a (relatively) local lad, being born just 10 miles up the fanet way at Herne.

I think I read somewhere that he may well be tempted to stand in a fanet seat, but then we've heard that before, haven't we.:D
 
not looking even unlikely imo - look at that poll above, he's in touching distance. a high profile campaign (all Ukip's chunk of the media share will be on one candidate and one seat) against a no-hoper and i think he'll walk it. cant see them dropping back in polls between now and then either.
 
Mattinson and Tyndall are grown-up and competent researchers and that was an interesting analysis of a set of focus groups. Very useful to the intended audience. Where was the hilarity?
 
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