Political polling

[King Biscuit Time]

Interesting that article talks about 'The North' drifting away from the rest of the country. Well in terms of population, outside the South East, 'The North' *is* the rest of the country (with an honourable mention to the West Midlands) - In fact - it's most of the country. It's where most of the people live.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

It's where most of the people live.

is it?

 

[brogdale]

is it?

No, not really.

The combined population of the 3 'northern' regions, (NE,NW & Y&H), total about 15 million out of England's 2011 censal total of 53 million.

 

[Delroy Booth]

No, not really.

The combined population of the 3 'northern' regions, (NE,NW & Y&H), total about 15 million out of England's 2011 censal total of 53 million.

There's a sort of crude use of the term North I see sometimes which acts as shorthand for "everyone above an imaginary line which stretches from the Severn to the Wash" Which can include West Midlands, Wales, Scotland depending on who uses it and basically means "everyone outside the south-east and home counties" but geographically and politically of course it's utter rubbish. I also don't like it because it means that large chunks of the South-West, which suffer from much the same types of economic problems and marginalisation as the "North", then get overlooked or lumped in with the Tory shires.

 

[brogdale]

There's a sort of crude use of the term North I see sometimes which acts as shorthand for "everyone above an imaginary line which stretches from the Severn to the Wash" Which can include West Midlands, Wales, Scotland depending on who uses it and basically means "everyone outside the south-east and home counties" but geographically and politically of course it's utter rubbish. I also don't like it because it means that large chunks of the South-West, which suffer from much the same types of economic problems and marginalisation as the "North", then get overlooked or lumped in with the Tory shires.

Agreed.

I remember the time I took a Mackem workmate to a Gills/Sunderland play-off. As we made our way from the station to the Priestfield he was genuinely shocked that such deprivation was to be found in the prosperous SE. Mind you, that was back in the 1980's, not long after the dockyard had been shut.

 

[J Ed]

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchp...itons-feel-no-benefit-of-economic-growth.aspx

Labour have re-established their lead over the Conservatives in terms of voting intentions, having been level in October. Labour now hold a 6 point lead, on 38% to the Conservatives’ 32%; these shares are in line with the two parties’ average for 2013. UKIP, meanwhile, are now on their lowest level this year on 8%, tied with the Lib Dems (8%). The Green Party are now just one point behind these two on 7%.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

There's a sort of crude use of the term North I see sometimes which acts as shorthand for "everyone above an imaginary line which stretches from the Severn to the Wash" Which can include West Midlands, Wales, Scotland depending on who uses it and basically means "everyone outside the south-east and home counties" but geographically and politically of course it's utter rubbish. I also don't like it because it means that large chunks of the South-West, which suffer from much the same types of economic problems and marginalisation as the "North", then get overlooked or lumped in with the Tory shires.

So the North now includes the South West?

A North that expands beyond the 3 northerly euro-regions to include the South West and maybe Gillingham is more imaginary than one that is geographically limited to the North of England. Derbyshire or at least its northerly half is the only extra bit I would add to what we call the North.

 

[shagnasty]

I imagine the home counties like herts,surrey,sussex etc is not the north by that definition

 

[Sprocket.]

My mate from t'top o' Dodworth bottom, (Barnsley, tha knows). Says anywhere below Birdwell roundabout is officially down south!

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

I imagine the home counties like herts,surrey,sussex etc is not the north by that definition

I imagine it's not the North by any definition.

 

[Dogsauce]

When I grew up in Bristol it was somewhere just north of Gloucester where people started talking funny. That was as good a definition as anything else.

I can remember the chants at Ashton Gate of 'we've got jobs, we've got jobs, you ain't' directed at northern teams. In some ways London is more fucked these days for anyone on a moderate wage or below because you're never getting a stake in anything and are going to get 'socially cleansed' sooner or later.

 

[brogdale]

Setting aside mental mapping for a while...here's tonight's ComeRes and Opinium polls:-

The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the monthly online ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror are both out tonight and both are in line with the general trend we’ve seen of increased Labour leads.

Opinium in the Observer have voting intentions of:-

CON 28%(-3), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2), UKIP 16%(nc).

ComRes have topline figures of:-

CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 17%(+1).
Usual source

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Apologies for purely anecdotal evidence, please correct me if i'm wrong. But, among those I speak to there is a distinct whiff of intention to vote Labour as "not as bad as the Tories", even though we all know they're a bit shit. Without a viable left alternative, that's all they've got.

With an admittedly naive nod towards Brewster's Millions, is there not a case for a campaign based on a "none of the above" kind of tack? I can't be the only one noticing a general apathy towards mainstream politics. Instead of offering the left alternative within the current system, which the TUSC have demonstrated is a very minority vote in the usual low turnout, why not try and get a high turnout with a low number of votes cast? Demonstrate that the system is not working?

 

[brogdale]

Apologies for purely anecdotal evidence, please correct me if i'm wrong. But, among those I speak to there is a distinct whiff of intention to vote Labour as "not as bad as the Tories", even though we all know they're a bit shit. Without a viable left alternative, that's all they've got.

With an admittedly naive nod towards Brewster's Millions, is there not a case for a campaign based on a "none of the above" kind of tack? I can't be the only one noticing a general apathy towards mainstream politics. Instead of offering the left alternative within the current system, which the TUSC have demonstrated is a very minority vote in the usual low turnout, why not try and get a high turnout with a low number of votes cast? Demonstrate that the system is not working?

I'm instinctively in favour of the electorate having the right to actively withhold consent via the NOTA ballot option, but you have to ask yourself what exactly you hope to achieve by this act. What outcome would you want if NOTA gained the plurality? Would you be after a reformed parliamentary system or the overthrow of the 'democratic' system of representation altogether?

 

[shagnasty]

Setting aside mental mapping for a while...here's tonight's ComeRes and Opinium pol

Setting aside mental mapping for a while...here's tonight's ComeRes and Opinium polls:-

The tory share is very low

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

I'm instinctively in favour of the electorate having the right to actively withhold consent via the NOTA ballot option, but you have to ask yourself what exactly you hope to achieve by this act. What outcome would you want if NOTA gained the plurality? Would you be after a reformed parliamentary system or the overthrow of the 'democratic' system of representation altogether?

Honestly, I hadn't thought that far ahead. Just idly musing. A kick up the arse for the political system is what i'd really be after.

 

[free spirit]

I'm instinctively in favour of the electorate having the right to actively withhold consent via the NOTA ballot option, but you have to ask yourself what exactly you hope to achieve by this act. What outcome would you want if NOTA gained the plurality? Would you be after a reformed parliamentary system or the overthrow of the 'democratic' system of representation altogether?

a rerun election in which none of the previous candidates would be allowed to stand.

 

[brogdale]

a rerun election in which none of the previous candidates would be allowed to stand.

would that really make any difference?
wouldn't the same old parties stand other candidates?

 

[butchersapron]

Yep it would. Unless we start getting into some serious restrictions on what democracy we currently have.

And who is going to oversee the reforms of the political system (let's assume it's possible for now) other than the people who currently run it and are elected under it?

 

[free spirit]

would that really make any difference?
wouldn't the same old parties stand other candidates?

yes, but in a safe seat it could be a different way of getting a particularly bad sitting MP kicked out.

or if all the choices really were that bad, it'd embarrass the fuck out of the local parties, and at least one of them might actually manage to find a decent candidate to put up in response.

I'd also support the right to recall an MP if x % of registered voters signed a petition against them.

Not that any of this would entirely fix the electoral system, but I reckon it'd make it slightly less shit.

 

[ska invita]

What outcome would you want if NOTA gained the plurality?

at least Brewster would win his millions

 

[littlebabyjesus]

A box at the end of every ballot box saying "none of the above"

And if "none of the above" gets the most votes, then none of the above is elected, and a new election must be held with new candidates.

Without that basic requirement, it isn't really democratic at all.

ETA: Already been said. Damn straight, though.

 

[brogdale]

A box at the end of every ballot box saying "none of the above"

And if "none of the above" gets the most votes, then none of the above is elected, and a new election must be held with new candidates.

Or...how about the people have their will and no-one is elected to represent them? Why keep repeating a sham of political democracy that the electorate have withdrawn their consent from?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Or...how about the people have their will and no-one is elected to represent them? Why keep repeating a sham of political democracy that the electorate have withdrawn their consent from?

ok, but that requires a considerable reordering of things. There is a point to elected representatives - a sensible point: they think about and vote on stuff that other people don't have the time to think about, and are delegated to do so by other people. Legislators in a set-up such as that which we have need time to deliberate and make good decisions, and they need to be empowered to a certain extent to make those decisions, for which they are then held accountable by everyone else.

Personally, I think a parliament chosen by lot is a good idea. At the very least, if you're going to have a bicameral system - and I can see how bicameral systems can mitigate against tyranny in that each chamber moderates the powers of the other – the 'upper' chamber, the supervisory chamber, really should be chosen by lot.

 

[brogdale]

ok, but that requires a considerable reordering of things. There is a point to elected representatives - a sensible point: they think about and vote on stuff that other people don't have the time to think about, and are delegated to do so by other people. Legislators in a set-up such as that which we have need time to deliberate and make good decisions, and they need to be empowered to a certain extent to make those decisions, for which they are then held accountable by everyone else.

Yeah, obviously there are arguments put forward for rep. dem. but if the majority of the electorate in a district/constituency withdrew thier consent to be represented, then that would be their settled will? If the NOTA option was to have any meaningful effect then the consequences of its success should be radical.

 

[brogdale]

Back OT...

Here's today's YouGov/ST poll...

The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll is up online here. Topline figures are:-

CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%.

There is little change in the leaders doing well/badly figures – 37% think Cameron is doing well, 56% badly, a net score of minus 19 (from minus 18 last week). Miliband’s net score is minus 32 (from minus 28 last week), Clegg’s minus 54 (unchanged).
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8405

Polls stable atm.

 

[butchersapron]

Another Populus one this morning:


Lab 41 (+1)
Cons 32 (+1)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 9 (-1)
Oth 8

We have all the polls aligned pretty much. Labour lead big enough to win large majority in a general election.

 

[Fez909]

Everytime I see these popularity polls, the leader is always in minus figures. Do they ever get into positive figures, or is zero seen as an amazing result?

 

[butchersapron]

Everytime I see these popularity polls, the leader is always in minus figures. Do they ever get into positive figures, or is zero seen as an amazing result?

It's pretty irrelevant nowadays - which is odd as there has been a shift in strategic planning onto focusing on the party leader.

 

[Fez909]

It's pretty irrelevant nowadays - which is odd as there has been a shift in strategic planning onto focusing on the party leader.

Well, yeah, it HAS to be irrelevant with everyone polling so badly, so consistantly. Do you know when the last time a leader was in positive numbers was? Just for curiosity sake.