1. Importance of Eastleigh noted: showed how Lib Dems can defend marginal seats. This, he says, steadied the nerves of some, though many remain pessimistic about the party’s fortunes in 2015.
2. The South West of England will be a key Lib Dem / Tory battleground – both sides hope to take seats from the other and Ukip is a wildcard.
3. Highlights party’s ‘Dragon’s Den’ process for allocating resources to seats so that activists who are “eager and energetic” are rewarded, not just doling out cash simply on basis of which seats are most winnable on paper. This is based on the experience of Redcar and Ashfield, a surprise gain and a near-miss in 2010, thanks to local parties working their socks off.
4. Incumbency will help the Lib Dems, say party strategists. “Their political opponents largely accept this.”
5. Willingness of party activists to campaign ‘away from home’ in winnable seats and that the new party IT system, Connect, is helping with this.
6. Though the party may have difficulty holding seats where the current MP is retiring, this may be offset by gains from the Tories where they are standing down.
7. As a result, he concludes that current Lib Dem share of vote (c.10%) very unlikely to mean massive reduction in in number of Lib Dem MPs.
8. He predicts a lib Dem vote share in 2015 of 16%.
9. Labour would edge the Tories by 36% to 34%, with relatively few seats changing hands. This would likely mean a second hung parliament, with Labour the largest single party. He reckons Ukip will end up on 8% (which is bad news for Dan Hodges).
10. His conclusion: “The next election will resemble the last election more closely than most people believe” – Heath’s Law (Anthony not Edward).
