butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Your language gives you away taffers. Wanton ffs. Out of a hundred how many people do you hate?
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
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brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
It's not inherently racist to mistakenly over-estimate population percentages of black/asian or muslim, is it? But such perceptions are worth exploring, aren't they?
I don't think this is much to do with perceptions though, as I've said. I think it's to do with how our brains deal with unknown or half remembered statistics.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
a hell of a lot of it depends on whee the poll was conducted. There are still large areas of the country that are overwhelmingly white, but in other areas those figures would be a pretty reasonable estimate, so if people base it on their experience rather than either knowing the actual figure, or taking time to really consider the wider picture, then it's fairly understandable.
I remember ages ago reading a study which said that people basically always over estimate the number of non white people, especially in areas with significant non white populations; it would be good to see that study again if anyone else recalls it.
(obv not saying people are racist or owt - I think it also said that non white people themselves underestimate their numbers)
(obv not saying people are racist or owt - I think it also said that non white people themselves underestimate their numbers)
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Bit of both I expect.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
But assuming that the polling was undertaken on the same sample basis as other national Ipsos MORI work, there are relatively few areas of the country with black/asian or muslim demographics >25%, so for the vast majority of respondents their estimated figures would not be pretty reasonable if based on their own experience.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
took me a while, but I've found the survey and methodology. It was conducted online, which I'd expect would introduce a reasonably significant level of bias towards those who're online the most, and away from those with poor internet access - eg much of the more remote countryside.
But yes, point taken, this is probably a relatively minor factor - actually they ask this very question in the survey.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
[/quote]
That's not just Daily Mail headlines, it has to be raw stupidity to seriously think that nearly 1/4 of the entire population is Muslim. A person might live in an area where they see quite a few (apparent) muslims round the place, but what happened to the ability to consider that other significantly less mixed places exist in large amount? It's baffling.
You're not reading those figures properly. How can people think more than a third of the population is over 65? Or that nearly a quarter are unemployed?
As others have said, it's not 'raw stupidity' at work here. It is ignorance of the real numbers combined in many cases no doubt with an imprecise idea of numbers in certain contexts that leads to really bad guesses. There are certain simple probability questions to do with rolling dice that a lot of people get wrong. That's all I read into these figures - there are lots of people who are crap with figures out there. To be lamented, no doubt, but not quite what you're saying it is.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
More interesting about that report is that on average people think the national situation is far worse than the local situation wrt a whole raft of social problems.
That's Q3/4. It's a consistent and strong pattern.
That's Q3/4. It's a consistent and strong pattern.
taffboy gwyrdd
Embrace the confusion!
1 at most, and I'd try not to hate them. I've something of a Buddhist approach to the subject. Sorry I said "wanton", if It was upsetting for you. What a sensitive chap you are.
taffboy gwyrdd
Embrace the confusion!
That's interesting, but the far and away top answer could well be based on "backs up my narrative and covers up for me being misinformed"
Nice to see that 23% were just guessing.
A third directly attribute it to TV and newspapers, which is informative. Ta for the info and digging.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
... it's not 'raw stupidity' at work here. It is ignorance of the real numbers combined in many cases no doubt with an imprecise idea of numbers in certain contexts that leads to really bad guesses. There are certain simple probability questions to do with rolling dice that a lot of people get wrong. That's all I read into these figures - there are lots of people who are crap with figures out there. To be lamented, no doubt, but not quite what you're saying it is.[/quote]
Thanks to free spirit's digging....the repsonses to Q13 tend to suggest that you're right that it's not just raw stupidity accounting for the over-estimations:-
When offered the actual censal data about half of those over-estimating still stuck to their answer; that sounds more like prejudice than ignorance.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Going back and looking at the table here - those response actually match up fairly well with the area in live in - far more so than the real national figures.
edit: and say you drove through this area to work everyday but you lived in an area with figures closer to the national figures what experience are you relying on for your reply? Are you trying to make an informed estimate by taking into account the different circumstances that you you know others live in or are you just going to rely on where you live? The first case, the 'bigoted' one, the one of overestimation of various things is surely in reality the less bigoted one? Or the better one?
And on top of that, its very revealing that overestimation of unemployed/muslim etc number is then associated in the minds of some people looking at the figures as meaning dislike of those categories - with nothing whatsoever to back that up from the results. Why does overestimation of the number of unemployed mean support for attacks on them? Why does overestimation of the number of muslims mean racism? I wonder, would the figure being underestimated then translate into a view that the people doing the underestimating are lovely non-racist right on types? Or would that just be seen as the way that these sort of exercises can get things wrong?
edit: and say you drove through this area to work everyday but you lived in an area with figures closer to the national figures what experience are you relying on for your reply? Are you trying to make an informed estimate by taking into account the different circumstances that you you know others live in or are you just going to rely on where you live? The first case, the 'bigoted' one, the one of overestimation of various things is surely in reality the less bigoted one? Or the better one?
And on top of that, its very revealing that overestimation of unemployed/muslim etc number is then associated in the minds of some people looking at the figures as meaning dislike of those categories - with nothing whatsoever to back that up from the results. Why does overestimation of the number of unemployed mean support for attacks on them? Why does overestimation of the number of muslims mean racism? I wonder, would the figure being underestimated then translate into a view that the people doing the underestimating are lovely non-racist right on types? Or would that just be seen as the way that these sort of exercises can get things wrong?
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Absolutely.
But another major influence is the "What You See Is All There Is" fallacy, as you know from reading the same book as me. Things we get shown loom large in our minds. So as well as the anchoring effect, and as well as the fact that people deal poorly with statistic (also true, and as remarked upon by a number of others in the thread), we also have the fact that the media feeds us consistently strong panic messages about race/culture, benefits and single mothers. The figures being as high as they are are a reflection of those messages too.
That's what the last statistic is illustrating, as an example. Why do people not think, "A majority in the country self-identify as Christian", and put about 60% or 70%, which would be in the complement of , "A minority are Muslim, hence 30%"? It's because of the WYSIATI factor created by the media messaging.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Agreed, but not all of the factors you list account for the fact that 50% of the over-estimators refused to accept the objective censal data.
Their answers are pure WYSIATI, actually.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
That can't be statistically correct; 50% of the population do not live in areas with those demographics. If WYSIATI includes what the media project...then maybe?
Yeah, I am using "What You See" to very much include the messages that get pushed at us on a daily basis. Not just by newspapers either, the telly is just as bad.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Are you not aware of taffboys hatred of the general population - esp the w/c part of it? The part he thinks deserve all they get because they all believe that there's too many muslims or whatever - that essentially their problems are of their own making.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Thought i might just put this here as it's a small story and one related to polling-ish but not worthy of a thread on its own. Zac Goldsmith has said he will resign and force a by-election if a third heathrow runway is adopted. The final recommendations of the Airports Commission (i.e not even the decision) is due summer 2015. Date of next general election: spring 2015. He's in a marginal. That said, it's a marginal with the lib-dems so i think he may be worrying unduly. He's effectively negating their opposition. Canny cynical politics at its best.
Fez909
toilet expert
He was criticising the media there, not the general population. The misinforming was being done to the people, by the media, and it was wanton. He might hate the working class and have indicated it in the past, but I think he's right here and there was nothing dodgy about what he said.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
He's saying that the general population are 'wantonly misinformed' via the media - it doesn't matter to that point who he thinks is making them 'wantonly uniformed' - it does matter that what he sees is a seething mass of people who can easily be 'wantonly misinformed' - that's the giveaway, esp when placed next to his long record of stuff like this. And that then has to placed next to other readings of the results and what the particular spin he decided to put on them reveals about where he's coming from.
Fez909
toilet expert
Fair enough if he's got form for it, and this provides a handy cover for his prejudices, but he's right on this. There are masses of being being misinformed by the media. I don't think it is easy, but it's happening. Half the threads on this forum are about the media and their misinformation.
I would say it's nearer 30%.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
If, given taffboys form, he says 'wantonly misinformed' rather than just misinformed - or wrong - that this suggests an element of immorality, of self-directed excess, of being spoilt - and so that he actually goes far far beyond the limited assertion that you make?
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