Political polling

[brogdale]

From YouGov's blogger Anthony...

Regular readers will recall that ICM’s poll last month was the headline grabbing poll that showed Labour and the Conservatives equal on 36, so the changes in this month’s poll are likely to be little more than a reversion to the mean after an outlier a month ago.

 

[butchersapron]

Bad bad news for the tories - Ashcroft's new poll on the 40 most marginal tory seats shows a larger swing to labour in these seats than in the national polling:

The key thing to look at here is whether the marginals are behaving like the country as a whole, and what we can tell about the Lib Dem v Conservative battleground, something the national polls don’t really tell us much about. Firstly, looking at the Con v Lab marginals, the vote shares are CON 29%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 11%. The Conservative lead across this group of seats in 2010 was 3 percentage points, so this reflects a swing of 8.5 points, so actually larger than the swing the national polls are currently showing (which is about 6.5 points), good news for Labour.

 

[butchersapron]

This is interesting:

The Six Polling Myths

Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes, pollster for The Independent and The Independent on Sunday, gave a presentation at the CIPR pre-conference-season briefing last week, in which he listed the six polling myths about the next election.

1. UKIP won’t matter. The gist of his rebuttal was: “Oh yes it will.”

2. Ed Miliband is useless. He may be, but it doesn’t matter. Even when they are reminded who the leader is, people say they intend to vote Labour. Anyway, they haven’t seen Miliband’s new image (preview courtesy of General Boles).

3. The party that is best rated on the economy wins. Ipsos MORI found that the Conservatives led Labour as the best at “managing the economy” by 33% to 26% at the 1997 election.

4. Labour will be blamed for everything wrong with the economy. ICM found that more people blame Labour than the coalition, but even more blame the banks or the troubles of the eurozone.

5. The Conservatives will get the credit for deficit reduction. Given how few voters understand the difference between the debt and the deficit, Hawkins thinks this is unlikely.

6. A Conservative majority is do-able. Hawkins pointed out that no government had increased its share of the vote after a full parliamentary term since the war, not even Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair: “If Thatcher and Blair couldn’t do it, why does David Cameron think he can do it?”

 

[kabbes]

If you were laying a spread on each party's number of MPs right now, butchers, what would it be?

 

[Santino]

“If Thatcher and Blair couldn’t do it, why does David Cameron think he can do it?”

My caveat here would be: because Nick Clegg.

 

[butchersapron]

If you were laying a spread on each party's number of MPs right now, butchers, what would it be?

I'll post up my current estimates when I get home later. Labour majority still favourite.

 

[butchersapron]

If you were laying a spread on each party's number of MPs right now, butchers, what would it be?

Lib-dems: 1-15
Tories: 250-260
Labour: 330-340

 

[kabbes]

Lib-dems: 1-15
Tories: 250-260
Labour: 330-340

You've got a good track record on this, I'm tempted to make a bet!

If it pans out as you currently expect, the Millibanders will take it as an endorsement of his leadership, sadly. But at least it will crush the Tories and LibDems.

 

[butchersapron]

You've got a good track record on this, I'm tempted to make a bet!

If it pans out as you currently expect, the Millibanders will take it as an endorsement of his leadership, sadly. But at least it will crush the Tories and LibDems.

I expect this coming weekend is going to see renewed attacks on Miliband from within the party triggered by two days tight yougov polling.

Btw electoral calculus have a thing that allows you to input your own figures and see what the likely outcome would be. They don't work off the assumption of a simple universal national swing either.

 

[kabbes]

Huh. Oddschecker seem to be claiming that no bookies are offering odds on the next election yet.

 

[butchersapron]

Huh. Oddschecker seem to be claiming that no bookies are offering odds on the next election yet.

That's nonsense. See also the bookie links on the left here.

 

[kabbes]

Oddschecker just shit then. No surprises there.

 

[kabbes]

4/6 on Milliband seems very attractive given those spreads! I guess that the Tories could bugger it by overthrowing Cameron in the meantime though.

 

[butchersapron]

4/6 on Milliband seems very attractive given those spreads! I guess that the Tories could bugger it by overthrowing Cameron in the meantime though.

Didn't mean to link to that specific market, was supposed to be the general politics betting section. But if you're looking at that bet you'd be better off on the labour majority 5/4.

 

[kabbes]

Yeah, seems like an excellent bet.

 

[where to]

Announcements now coming out from Labour seem to confirm they are going for 35% strategy.

 

[goldenecitrone]

I expect this coming weekend is going to see renewed attacks on Miliband from within the party triggered by two days tight yougov polling.

Btw electoral calculus have a thing that allows you to input your own figures and see what the likely outcome would be. They don't work off the assumption of a simple universal national swing either.

Thanks for that. Very interesting.

 

[treelover]

Announcements now coming out from Labour seem to confirm they are going for 35% strategy.

some good things, but still vague

 

[Delroy Booth]

Two polls have just come out putting Labour on 39%.

https://twitter.com/electionista/status/382163986277351427 < This one has Labour on a 10 point lead

https://twitter.com/electionista/status/382113198742073344 < This one has Labour on a 7 point lead.

I await the articles in the Guardian to write a prominent article about these result, and for the BBC to stop using the phrase "with the polls neck and neck" in their Labour party conference coverage?

 

[butchersapron]

...and from the two day YG tightening of the tory/labour polling we are now back to

CON 32%
LAB 40%
LDEM 10%
UKIP 12%.

 

[mk12]

But the Guardian keeps telling me the Tories are almost neck and neck!

 

[William of Walworth]

They say that often enough, but say even more that any Labour lead is soft for the midterm period, as if it's inevitable that the main parties will be much nearer to neck and neck by the time the election happens.

 

[where to]

i predict huge leads this weekend, once we're past conference. maybe up to 12%. but these will close back a bit after the tory conference.

 

[where to]

i predict huge leads this weekend, once we're past conference. maybe up to 12%. but these will close back a bit after the tory conference.

Latest youguv says 11%.

 

[butchersapron]

You gov seem volatile the last week or so, but within the limits of a labour lead.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Seems to been definite bounce for labour since the dawn of 'red ed'. All the received wisdom about 'capturing the centre ground' and triangulation being essential to winning the election shown up to be cobblers. Milliband's token tit-bits of less right wing policy may have a considerable effect in terms of image - Ed against the vested interests, he says boo to murdoch etc - tempting back disillusioned labour voters and cementing the former lib dems. The hysteria of the right wing press and the disapproval of blair and mandelson seems to have helped his case.

 

[bi0boy]

Seems to been definite bounce for labour since the dawn of 'red ed'. All the received wisdom about 'capturing the centre ground' and triangulation being essential to winning the election shown up to be cobblers. Milliband's token tit-bits of less right wing policy may have a considerable effect in terms of image - Ed against the vested interests, he says boo to murdoch etc - tempting back disillusioned labour voters and cementing the former lib dems. The hysteria of the right wing press and the disapproval of blair and mandelson seems to have helped his case.

Interesting piece here suggesting Milliband is playing a canny game with respect to positioning himself in opposition.

 

[butchersapron]

Miliband is doing - within the limits of the labour party and its aims - exactly the right thing. What that article touches on but doesn't go into ant detail about, is that you can make 'centre ground' - it's not an ideological term, electorally it just means something popular that doesn't polarise. And that can mean just keeping it zipped mostly.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

When Miliband first gave a speech as leader to conf I thought he had something about him - a recognition of where Labour had gone wrong and ideas about moving forward. Since then I have been disappointed and put it down to him getting too busy and sucked into listening to wonks. This week hopefully has seen a move away from that.

But the lead for mid term still isn't impressive. Remember, a good amount of UKIP support (or bad, if you prefer) will tip back to tory at a GE, especially once the bribes and 2 minute hate-speak are turned up to 11. Maybe people are starting to see past all that stuff, but maybe not enough in the key demographics. We shall see.

Anyhow, point being that if Labour and Tory come across as too similar (which they have tended to) people may well stick with the devil they know. It's a risk Labour can't take. Clear red water isn't just what the country needs, it's good politics and good strategy.

 

[butchersapron]

Why are you assuming UKIP vot will go back tory? How much - 75?? It doesn't need a huge amount of UKIP stickability in marginals to do serious damage remember.

The labour lead - and the persistence of it - suggest a large labour majority. They don't need to poll 45% plus to achieve that - they just need the tories to stay where they are. That they have a sustained lead after their second ever worst showing is impressive. It took the tories 13 years to even begin to unravel 1997.