Political polling

[brogdale]

@Survation poll puts Ukip 22% to Con 24% with Lab 35% and Lib 11%.

and

Damian Lyons Lowe ‏@DamianSurvation 26m
NB. We have UKIP and the Tories neck and neck tonight on 23% before making our DK/REF adjustment. Full tables here: http://survation.com/?p=2937

Taxi for Dave....

Usual sober analysis from YouGov's Anthony...but he does make a couple of interesting points about tory support..

Survation have put out a new poll, the topline voting intention figures are CON 24%(-5), LAB 35%(-1), LD 11%(-1), UKIP 22%(+6). The 22% for UKIP is the first poll to show them breaking the twenty percent mark.
In many ways the high UKIP score here shouldn’t come as a surprise, for methodological reasons Survation tend to show the highest levels of UKIP support so if ICM have them at 18% and ComRes at 19% I would have expected Survation to have them in the low twenties. Striking it may be, but the increase in UKIP support is actually in line with what weve seen elsewhere, just using a method that is kinder to UKIP.
More interesting is the drop in Tory support, down five points on Survation’s poll in April. The poll was conducted on Friday and Saturday so at least partially after the “swivel eyed loon” story broke (it came out in Saturday’s papers, so broke about 10pm on Friday night). All the usual caveats I apply to any poll showing sharp or unusual results apply. Sure, it might indicate a shift in support, but just as likely its a blip – wait to see if it is reflected in any other polling. As Twyman’s Law of market research says “anything surprising or interesting is probably wrong”.
Two further comments, I’ve written before about people making the error of looking at the changes in a poll over a month and assuming that events in the last few days are the cause. Survation’s last poll was at the end of April before the local elections, so changes are just as likely to be down to the local elections and the Conservative infighting over Europe as anything more recent.
Secondly there is a tendency for the media and the denizens of Twitter to get all excited about unusual polls that give newsworthy stories when this is, of course, the exact opposite of what you should do if you actually want to understand public opinion. The correct approach is to look at the broad underlying trend and ignore the odd looking polls, the media normally do the opposite. The trend is that UKIP support has jumped substantially following their local election success, and that the Labour lead has been narrowing. The Conservative figure here may yet suggest a new direction, but let’s wait and see.

 

[where to]

The impact of loongate is in the party, not with the public. So opinion poll reflects more (and is prob slight outlier, for now). tonight's vote will give him some comfort , but things are moving quickly and they are not managing it well.

Cameron used the swivel eyed comments a while back, was quoted in the FT at the time, i think referring to ukipers or anti EU ers generally.

There seem to big chunks of the Tory press who fucking hate Cameron and Osbourne.

Imo it all comes down to austerity failing and the right , frustrated at stagnation , and looking for someone to blame rather than something (austerity). Eu is a sideshow, as ever things turn on the economy.

 

[goldenecitrone]

There seem to big chunks of the Tory press who fucking hate Cameron and Osbourne.

Imo it all comes down to austerity failing and the right , frustrated at stagnation , and looking for someone to blame rather than something (austerity). Eu is a sideshow, as ever things turn on the economy.

Why shouldn't they blame Cameron and Osbourne for the failure of their economic policies? It is 100% their fault.

 

[where to]

Why shouldn't they blame Cameron and Osbourne for the failure of their economic policies? It is 100% their fault.

Because they supported these policies too. And still do. They can't seem to accept that they don't work.

 

[butchersapron]

Why shouldn't they blame Cameron and Osbourne for the failure of their economic policies? It is 100% their fault.

They're not attacking then for their economic policies - they're attacking them for their political style. On the economic front they think they should target the poor more than they does and do so aggressively. And why shouldn't they? They're not calling for an end to austerity, or even a slow down.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

LD MP Simon Wright, (Norwich South), will be free to take on media work if there is just a 0.32% swing to Labour. That's got to be a pretty good bet, thopugh whether or not he'd be any good on the TV I don't know? I can't recall ever seeing/hearing him speak on the media.

The MP is second from the right.

Say what you like about Tim Nice But Dim, but he is aging incredibly well.

 

[brogdale]

Today's YouGov/Sun....

"Latest YouGov / The Sun results 21st May :-

CON 27% (-4), LAB 38% (+3), LD 10% (nc), UKIP 16% (+2); APP -40

The cross-breaks once again reveal the depth of damage being done to tory support...

Fully 27% of 2010 tories expressing a preference for UKIP, as opposed to 5% Lab. In the age breaks 26% of all 60+ voters going for UKIP must also terrify the tories; those folks actually vote.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

As much as I despise the poujadist UKIP scum, I can't help but smile at the vichyite quisling Libdem vermin being knocked into fourh.

 

[brogdale]

Just to add to Dave's woes...

The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer is out tonight and has topline figures of:-

CON 26%(-1), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 6%(-1), UKIP 21%(+1).

There is no significant change from a fortnight ago, though for the record the 21% is the highest that UKIP have recorded with Opinium and the 6% is the lowest the Liberal Democrats have recorded this Parliament*. Opinium do tend to produce some of the higher UKIP scores, something they have put down to not using political weighting in their polls.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7551

6% for the twats!

 

[shagnasty]

Just to add to Dave's woes...



6% for the twats!

I tried to find some polls from when Sdp started in the eighties but couldn't find any.i would like to make a comparision with them and Ukip.I think it could be interesting

 

[butchersapron]

I tried to find some polls from when Sdp started in the eighties but couldn't find any.i would like to make a comparision with them and Ukip.I think it could be interesting

Best i can do for now.

 

[shagnasty]

Best i can do for now.

Thanks butchers

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Best i can do for now.

Didn't realise that blogs been going so long

 

[brogdale]

'kippers have more than double the popular polling of the LDs...according to TNS-BMRB's new poll out tonight.

Topline figures with changes from a week ago are:-

CON 27%(+3), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 19%(nc).

Also polling about spooks reading our stuff:-

YouGov polling for Huffington Post on security services intercepting emails, showing a narrow majority in favour. 38% oppose police and security services being given access to mobile and internet records, 43% support the idea and 8% would go further and allow security services to access the content of emails.

 

[brogdale]

Tonight's polls...

Opinium in the Observer have topline figures of:-

CON 27%(+1), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 20%(-1).

Changes are from their poll a fortnight ago, and clearly don’t show any massive change.

ComRes for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror meanwhile have topline figures of:-

CON 26%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 19%(nc).

Changes there are from the last online ComRes poll a month ago.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7645

Usual caveats regarding internet vrs interview polling methodology; these two are internet, and tend to yield higher UKIP scores.

 

[redsquirrel]

You have to go back to mid-April to find a poll where the LD's polled higher than UKIP.

 

[brogdale]

You have to go back to mid-April to find a poll where the LD's polled higher than UKIP.

There or thereabouts...

 

[brogdale]

This week’s YouGov/Sunday Times poll is now up online here. Topline voting intention figures are:-

CON 30%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%.

All three polls today are showing a nine point Labour lead, though of course, that is co-incidence to some degree – remember that other companies like ICM, MORI and ComRes’s phone polls are showing smaller leads.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7657

 

[brogdale]

YouGov blogger Anthony has graphed UKIP support, (as recorded by YG), over the year so far:-

He describes their support as having "gone off the boil a bit".

This morrning's YG was included in the data set:-

CON 31%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7666

 

[butchersapron]

Good point to be simmering at 13/14%

 

[brogdale]

Still seemingly simmering...

The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight, and has topline figures of:-

CON 30%(nc), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 14%(-3).

As with other recent polling ComRes show UKIP coming off the boil a bit after their post-local election high, but still well above the levels of support they had earlier this year.(Comparison with last CR tele poll)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7695

These are looking like fairly settled figures, for the time being.

 

[brogdale]

Not polling, as such, but an article about poll findings and the "GenY" thing:-

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/26/generation-y-young-voters-backing-conservatives

...the fact that as you progress down the age range, opinions about the job market and welfare state tend to harden, to the point that droves of twentysomethings sound like devout Thatcherites...

A large share of Generation Y seems to build its opinions around a liberalism that is both social and, crucially, economic. This, conveniently, also forms the core of the modern Toryism espoused by David Cameron and George Osborne.

Such are the prevailing opinions of what pollsters call Generation Y, the millions of people born between 1980 and 2000Though the under-34s are less keen on the idea of political loyalty than older cohorts, latter-day Tories have apparently managed to speak to a creditable swath of Gen Y, and pull off an amazing political feat. When Cameron took over the Tory leadership in 2005, the party's support among Generation Y stood at 10%. It has since more than doubled, to 20.5%, who have grown up in a country in which postwar collectivism is increasingly but a distant memory, and the free-market worldview handed on from Thatcher, to Major to Blair and Brown and now Cameron, is seemingly as ordinary and immovable as the weather.

In other words, the time-worn wisdom about politics and the young may be in the process of being turned on its head. Welcome, then, to yet another element of the New Normal, and a sobering fact: when it comes to questions about the welfare state, work and the like, the younger you are, the more rightwing you're likely to be.

Discuss?

 

[brogdale]

...and like flies to shit...

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/t...-not-compute-does-not-compute/?placement=mid2

 

[where to]

Latest yougov: Ukip 10 labour 42 lib 11 Tory 31

Ukip run seems to have been hit since Woolwich took Europe off the agenda. Not sure why Labour are polling better now though? Simply the transfer of votes from ukip back to them?

 

[treelover]

Ukip run seems to have been hit since Woolwich took Europe off the agenda. Not sure why Labour are polling better now though? Simply the transfer of votes from ukip back to them?

coming down hard on 'benefit scroungers'?

 

[butchersapron]

Latest yougov: Ukip 10 labour 42 lib 11 Tory 31

Ukip run seems to have been hit since Woolwich took Europe off the agenda. Not sure why Labour are polling better now though? Simply the transfer of votes from ukip back to them?

Their figures actually went down post-woolwich and were stabilised around a 7-8% lead - that new one is the first 10%+ one for some time.

 

[Streathamite]

They're not attacking then for their economic policies - they're attacking them for their political style.

It seems to me they're attacking them for being too damn modern and liberal - "gay marriage....immigrants....notting hill set...where will it end...where's our party gone?"

 

[butchersapron]

I really don't see that at all.

Anayay, today the labour lead is back down to the normal-ish 6% for this week or so. Seems to be small rise for tory and small drop for labour at same time - all within the normal run of things.

CON 33%
LAB 39%
LD 10%
UKIP 13%

 

[butchersapron]

Tmw Opinium for Observer:

CON 27%(nc)
LAB 38%(+1)
LD 6%(-1)
UKIP 19%(nc)

 

[butchersapron]

...and two others with big UKIP numbers:

Survation for Mail on Sunday:
LAB 36
CON 28
LD 9
UKIP 20

ComRes for the Independent and Sunday Mirror:

CON 28%(+2)
LAB 36%(+1,
LDEM 8%(-2)
UKIP 18%(-1).