Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Political polling

www.getsurrey.co.uk -- home of the Surrey Advertiser -- self-selected online poll of those who access the website:

How do you intend to vote in the county council elections?

Conservative 14%
Liberal Democrats 31%
UKIP 31%
Labour 10%
Independent/Residents Association 4%
Other - please comment 2%
I'm not voting 8%

Comedy.
 
www.getsurrey.co.uk -- home of the Surrey Advertiser -- self-selected online poll of those who access the website:

How do you intend to vote in the county council elections?

Conservative 14%
Liberal Democrats 31%
UKIP 31%
Labour 10%
Independent/Residents Association 4%
Other - please comment 2%
I'm not voting 8%

Comedy.
Bunch of jokers in South Shields too.
(n % change)​
Labour Emma Lewell-Buck 12,493 50.4 -1.6​
UKIPRichard Elvin 5,988 24.2 N/A
ConservativeKaren Allen 2,857 11.5 -10.1​
IndependentAhmed Khan 1,331 5.4 N/A
Independent Socialist Party Phil Brown 750 3.0 N/A
BNP Lady Dorothy MacBeth Brookes 711 2.9 -3.6​
Liberal Democrat Hugh Annand 352 1.4 -12.8​
Independent Thomas Darwood 57 0.2 N/A
Majority 6,505 26.3 -4.1​
Turnout 24,780[8] 39.3[9] -18.4​
Good to see the Independent Socialists nudging the BNP down a place. That is a very encouraging result. Probably a lot of Labour's lost voters, with a lot of Labour abstainers, likely responsible for most of the 18.4% drop in turnout. Just about everybody else would be dying to make a point, apart from those dutiful middling right Tories.​
South Shields looking remarkably like Surrey, barring a preference for Lib Dems over Labour. Residents Association did well to score a respectable % on that poll too.​
Good things.​
 
Unsurprisingly, UKIP continues to show well in polling conducted after the results of the locals were known.

The Sun have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov/Sun voting intention figures, the first with fieldwork conducted wholly after the local election results. Topline figures are:-

CON 29%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%.

The 16% is the highest that YouGov have shown for UKIP (their previous high was 14%, and that was only achieved in the last week or so.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7398

No wonder the tories are turning on each-other.
 
The dead Thatch bounce may have disappeared also, from that. May have, early days.

Not much of a dent in the LD long-run showing.Possibly even up from the nadir. Probably tactical types in the south realising they have no other options when reality kicks in.
 
The dead Thatch bounce may have disappeared also, from that. May have, early days.

Not much of a dent in the LD long-run showing.Possibly even up from the nadir. Probably tactical types in the south realising they have no other options when reality kicks in.

Yay to the death of the dead fatch bouce...

The Sun have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov figures and they confirm the UKIP boost we saw in yesterday’s poll. Topline voting intention is:-

CON 27%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 17%.

The 17 points for UKIP is, obviously, once again their highest. This has a knock on effect for Labour and the Conservatives: the Labour score of 38% is the lowest that YouGov have shown them at for over a year (the last time they were that low was February 2012), the Conservative score of 27% is the lowest YouGov have shown them this Parliament (and, indeed, ever – you have to go back to before YouGov started regular polling in 2002 to find that sort of level of Tory support).
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7408

**thumbs**:)
 
Tory + UKIP of 45% is worrying though - if any 'combined ticket'/tactical thing emerges that's be enough to give them quite a bit of power. Don't think Farage's ego will let it happen in 2015, and hopefully he'll be a passed fad by 2020 (and maybe the agenda-setting reactionary press will have drifted into obscurity by then as print media dies off - one can only hope, although power will find new channels to control instead).

Just in case though, I've my fingers crossed for another plane crash, ideally onto a cycling Boris then a lucky bounce into Gove's face.
 
Labour has a mountain to climb to win the next election outright, and is still failing to chalk up big enough leads on image or leadership to make it likely to secure an overall majority, according to polling which will be put to a Labour conference to be addressed this weekend by Ed Miliband.
The YouGov polling, commissioned by Progress, suggests the party is still seen as "nice" but incapable of taking tough decisions. Miliband's personal ratings have hardly improved over the past year.
In an article for Progress, the New Labour pressure group, the YouGov president, Peter Kellner, describes the polling as "profoundly troubling" for Labour, saying that despite the unpopularity of the government, Labour has uncomfortably small leads and has been unable to generate wide public enthusiasm.
He writes: "The central fact is that no successful opposition in the past 50 years has gone on to regain power with such a weak image and without achieving much bigger voting-intention leads at some point in the parliament."

Labour, he advises, needs to think what it will do if it fails to win an overall majority.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/09/labour-election-victory-2015-distant-prospect

:facepalm:

"...think what it will do if it fails to win an overall majority"
:facepalm:

The polling also shows that by a margin of 50-35 points, voters regard Labour as "nice" – but by a larger, 61-24, margin, also as "dim". Most people consider the Tories both "mean" and "dim"; but more people regard the Tories as "smart" than say the same about Labour.
:facepalm::D
 
Tories are 'Smart'? Have they never seen Warsi on the telly? or paid even the slightest attention to what Gove is saying? Most of what they're doing is the antethesis of 'evidence-based policy', kneejerk reactionary horseshit. I guess the electorate don't pay that much attention. And no, the current Labour team aren't much better, spineless buffoons on things like workfare and for playing along with the anti-immigration agenda.

'Tough choices' and 'Difficult decisions' are standard coalition phrases, and amongst their most shallow. Mind, it may have been a bit tough having the brass neck to give a 5% tax break to the very richest in society whilst taking money from the poorest.
 
Tories are 'Smart'? Have they never seen Warsi on the telly? or paid even the slightest attention to what Gove is saying? Most of what they're doing is the antethesis of 'evidence-based policy', kneejerk reactionary horseshit. I guess the electorate don't pay that much attention. And no, the current Labour team aren't much better, spineless buffoons on things like workfare and for playing along with the anti-immigration agenda.

'Tough choices' and 'Difficult decisions' are standard coalition phrases, and amongst their most shallow. Mind, it may have been a bit tough having the brass neck to give a 5% tax break to the very richest in society whilst taking money from the poorest.
Brown left office three years ago. The Tories are still hated for Thatcher, 16 years after her crew left office. Labour deserves no free pass and sure has not earnt one.

Rock on Nigel. Shove some chilli powder up their obsessively triangulating, overpaid arses.
 
UKIP up to 18% in the ICM/Guardian monthly.

Nigel Farage's party has surged from its previous record best with ICM, the 9% it notched up in April, to 18% after its council election victories last week.

Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have been left reeling, with all shedding four points on the month to 34%, 28% and 11% respectively.

ICM460May.png
 
The combined vote of UKIP and others is 1% behind the Tories.

BNP up to 4% on the ICM poll.

Guardian's Tom Clark gives these possible explanations:-

There are three possible explanations. First, it could be a statistical blip in the sample that will disappear next month. Secondly, the nationalist and anti-immigration turn the discourse has taken with the arrival of Ukip could be rallying people to the BNP brand, even without any credible BNP organisation. Finally, the BNP surge may reflect confusion. ICM prompts voters with the names of Labour, Lib Dem and the Tories, but it does not do the same with Ukip. It could be that some who have heard about one bunch of flag-wavers on the rise mistakenly volunteer the name of another patriotically-titled party when asked who they would support.

The two substantive hypotheses offer a troubling 'by-product' of the fragmentation of the right.
 
Helmets on tories,assume the position:

Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB
I'm getting word of a sensational poll carried out entirely after loongate. The numbers should be out later but are really jaw-dropping.

@Survation poll puts Ukip 22% to Con 24% with Lab 35% and Lib 11%.

and

Damian Lyons Lowe@DamianSurvation 26m
NB. We have UKIP and the Tories neck and neck tonight on 23% before making our DK/REF adjustment. Full tables here: http://survation.com/?p=2937

Taxi for Dave....
 
This was before the UKIP poll came out too.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/20/tories-warn-confidence-david-cameron?CMP=twt_gu

As unfavourable comparisons were being drawn with John Major, senior figures indicated that the chairman of the Conservative backbench 1922 committee, Graham Brady, was expected to receive further letters calling for a confidence vote. Brady, who is understood to have been sent a limited number in recent months, will have to call a vote if he receives at least 46.

Looking pretty bad for Cameron....
 
This was before the UKIP poll came out too.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/20/tories-warn-confidence-david-cameron?CMP=twt_gu



Looking pretty bad for Cameron....

They certainly know how to kick a man when he's down!:D

I suppose it's an evitable fate for anyone who presumes to lead such a community of psychopaths.

e2a : in the circumstances it doesn't appear too clever to be sending out messages with such a valedictory tone...
Turning away from the debate, I see that David Cameron has sent out a message to all Conservative party members in the light of the "swivel-eyed loons" controversy. Here's an extract.
I’ve been a member of the Conservative Party for 25 years. Some time after I joined I became Chairman of my local branch and was one of the volunteers dedicated to getting Conservatives elected to the local council. Since then I have met thousands and thousands of party members. We’ve pounded pavements together, canvassed together and sat in make-shift campaign headquarters together, from village halls to front rooms. We have been together through good times and bad. This is more than a working relationship; it is a deep and lasting friendship.​
Ours is a companionship underpinned by what we believe: that everyone should be able to get on in life if they’re willing to work hard; that we look after those who cannot help themselves; that it’s family and community and country that matter; that a dose of common sense is worth more than a ton of dry political theory; that Britain is a great and proud nation that can be greater still.​
Above all, we Conservatives believe you change things not by criticising from your armchair but by getting out and doing. Across the country, at charity events and voluntary organisations, you will find people from our Party quietly doing their bit. Time and again, Conservative activists like you stand for duty, decency and civic pride.​
That’s why I am proud to lead this party. I am proud of what you do. And I would never have around me those who sneered or thought otherwise. We are a team, from the parish council to the local association to Parliament, and I never forget it.​
Can't see mush like that placating the loons...:D
 
They certainly know how to kick a man when he's down!:D

I suppose it's an evitable fate for anyone who presumes to lead such a community of psychopaths.

e2a : in the circumstances it doesn't appear too clever to be sending out messages with such a valedictory tone...

Can't see mush like that placating the loons...:D

There's rumours all over the Tory blogs it was Cameron who came out with the swivel eyed loons comment. Maybe that statement is a pre-emptive apology...

I've got a feeling he might resign or get pushed out sooner rather than later. This is just going to get worse and worse.
 
Dave thread time?

I wouldn't go that far just yet. Remember just because some cranks on the comments sections of conservative home and other tory blogs and twitters are saying this doesn't make it true. But the fact that it's being said is revealing and damaging in itself, even if it turns out Cameron didn't say it, shows us that that's what Tory activists assume his attitude is.
 
That poll data's not that amusing. Tory strategy will be fascinating - they can't acknowledge UKIP properly, but need to put out a 'vote us, not them - to keep the others out' message.
 
Back
Top Bottom