Political polling

[butchersapron]

Dunliven might be better.

 

[treelover]

At UKIP's Spring Conference they have decided to support deficit reduction and a spokesperson on the news said they would work with the Conservatives to achieve it.

opportunity for Labour to get back some of their defectors?

btw, Farage has also just attended a conference in the U.S with hard right politicians, etc.

 

[treelover]

Yes, I more accurately should have called him a right winger.

And yes, it's too easy to say " there's only one Tory in Scotland"; there isn't - there's 16% of the electorate.

Its still amazing that there are only that many, England and Scotland, two countries that might as well be on different galaxies.

 

[treelover]

Bours says, under Ukip, hospital managers would need a licence to manage.

There have been some shocking management failings, she says. Under this plan, failed managers would not be able to get a new job somewhere else in the NHS.

Bours turns to social care. Some care assistants are only given 15 minutes per visit. That is “an absolute disgrace.

She says people are very generous in their donations to charity. But charity should not be paying for services that the government should fund, she says.

Ukip woud integrate health and social care.

It would experiment with putting GPs in A&E departments, she says.

And care providers would not be allowed to employ people on zero hours contracts.

Bours says the media have closed down more failing care homes than the Care Quality Commission. The CQC could be given greater powers to carry out snap inspections, she says.

She says nursing training should happen on wards, not in lecture theatres.

Ukip would bring back “the state-enrolled nurse”.

(This gets a big round of applause.)

And Ukip would insist on foreign health professionals being able to speak and write English “to a level acceptable to the profession”.

(Another round of applause.)

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...at-ukips-spring-conference-politics-live-blog

The, again some of this will appeal to labour voters.

 

[andysays]

Dunliven might be better.

I was originally thinking about

Dunbein'thedeputyprimeministerandcondemningtheLibDemstoobscurityforanothergeneration

which would at least have the merit of creating more employment in the field of sign-writing, but I'd be happy to go with your suggestion

 

[William of Walworth]

danny la rouge

You qoted my post about tactical voting back on page 59.

Just to clarify, my opinion wasn't intended to be about Scotland specifically. I find it near-impossible to imagine wanting people to vote Tory in any circumstance, but Scottish circumstances are very different from those south of the border anyway.

That list of seats in your post -- that Scottish Labour person seems (?) keener to see Lib Dems kicked out than anything else.

 

[danny la rouge]

danny la rouge

You qoted my post about tactical voting back on page 59.

Just to clarify, my opinion wasn't intended to be about Scotland specifically. I find it near-impossible to imagine wanting people to vote Tory in any circumstance, but Scottish circumstances are very different from those south of the border anyway.

That list of seats in your post -- that Scottish Labour person seems (?) keener to see Lib Dems kicked out than anything else.

No, he's saying in these seats vote Tory to beat the SNP and in these ones vote Lib Dem to beat the SNP. So he'd prefer coalition MPs to non coalition MPs.

 

[danny la rouge]

I was originally thinking about which would at least have the merit of creating more employment in the field of sign-writing, but I'd be happy to go with your suggestion

I've been there; it's in Wales.

 

[William of Walworth]

No, he's saying in these seats vote Tory to beat the SNP and in these ones vote Lib Dem to beat the SNP. So he'd prefer coalition MPs to non coalition MPs.

Oh blimey. Will need to look again then. Far worse than I'd (on a far too quick glance ) assumed.

 

[Dogsauce]

It's just a tactical move to tie up the SNP's resources, keep them fighting on more fronts, so Labour slip through in other seats, right? Either that or a not very subtle double-agent.

 

[danny la rouge]

It's just a tactical move to tie up the SNP's resources, keep them fighting on more fronts, so Labour slip through in other seats, right? Either that or a not very subtle double-agent.

Keep an eye on the number of Tory seats in Scotland to find out which.

 

[laptop]

Keep an eye on the number of Tory seats in Scotland to find out which.

More strictly, the number in which the Tories are, say, fewer than 2000 votes behind the 2010 winner.

 

[danny la rouge]

More strictly, the number in which the Tories are, say, fewer than 2000 votes behind the 2010 winner.

There are seats where Labour and Tory votes combined can beat an SNP incumbent.

 

[danny la rouge]

Guardian projection:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection

 

[brogdale]

Guardian projection:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection

Interesting correlations/lack of correlations emerging in that graphic...

Lab still seems more clearly negatively correlated with UKIP than the tories, and the 'Green surge' appears negatively correlated with the LDs, rather than Lab.

 

[weepiper]

Oh blimey. Will need to look again then. Far worse than I'd (on a far too quick glance ) assumed.

It's just a tactical move to tie up the SNP's resources, keep them fighting on more fronts, so Labour slip through in other seats, right? Either that or a not very subtle double-agent.

It's not going down too well

 

[redsquirrel]

It was just so obviously going to backfire in that way. Even if the SLP leadership is this fucking dumb you'd think there'd be someone in the national office that could tell them that this was fuckwitted.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

It's really bizarely stupid if true

 

[danny la rouge]

It's really bizarely stupid if true

The tactical voting advice? It was real enough. They reversed the fuck away from it when social media took the piss, though. The guy that took the blame fell on his sword. Too late, though. The attitude was exposed.

 

[treelover]

Ed Miliband on course for absolute majority, according to poll

Labour has regained a slim lead over David Cameron’s party, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll.

Ed Miliband is on course for an absolute majority with the polls putting him on 35% – two points up on last week. The Conservatives have slipped by one point to 34%.

Ukip is on 14% while the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are tied on 6%.

Pollsters at Opinium said it appears that the two main parties are statistically tied, with variations in recent weeks being within the bounds of statistical error.

However, Cameron continues to lead the pack on approval ratings, they found.

The latest poll has 40% saying they approve of his leadership, while 42% disapprove. Miliband is on 24% “approve” and 49% “disapprove”.

Observer poll, but they still make time to have a go at Ed.

 

[miktheword]

over, post: 13752488, member: 334"]Observer poll, but they still make time to have a go at Ed.[/QUOTE]




They probably think they're being pro Ed compared to their 15th February headline...
'Cameron maintains high approval rating despite Labour poll lead'

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/14/opinium-poll-david-cameron-maintains-approval-rating

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

http://electionunspun.net/

Very good site with loads of data on MSM coverage ^

 

[weepiper]

 

[brogdale]

Fair enough; it's not too far from full Scots polling, but that cross-break was only 189 people.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Fair enough; it's not too far from full Scots polling, but that cross-break was only 189 people.

it's like Irish polls all over again

 

[William of Walworth]

Fair enough; it's not too far from full Scots polling, but that cross-break was only 189 people.

You've got to have bigger samples than that! Tiny samples lead to anything between mild-ish exaggeration of the true trends, to downright distortion of them.

Not saying there's no truth in that small poll, far from, but the sampling has to be broader, surely, than just 189 people. I have to admit I've not always paid enough attention to that factor myself, in the recent past.

 

[brogdale]

Anthony's comments on yesterday's slew of polling...

Two three point Tory leads on the same day. All the usual caveats apply – it is only two polls and Populus showed a two point Labour lead. It wouldn’t be the first time that two polls have popped out on the same day showing something unusual, only for it to turn out to be pure co-incidence when polls in the following days showing everything back to normal. Keep an eye on it though…

 

[weepiper]

Ashcroft's Scottish constituency polls are coming out. Grim reading for Scottish Labour

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...e-in-Scotland-Lord-Ashcroft-poll-reveals.html

 

[rioted]

Thats a month old.

 

[weepiper]

oh yeah. So it is. There's new polls from 8 Scottish marginals out tonight though and the best result for Labour is a 1% lead for Jim Murphy. Gis a mo