Political polling

[chilango]

My one and only GE vote was for Plaid Cymru in '92.

Spoilt or not been on roll ever since.

(I've voted in locals, Europeans etc. in the meantime - Communist and Green iirc).

This time? In a semi-marginal Tory seat there's a strong pull to vote Labour. The Greens locally are on a roll and saying the right things. Deep down I know there's no real point - except for doing something different from not voting.

What can I say? I love the maps, graphs and charts though.

 

[danny la rouge]

What can I say? I love the maps, graphs and charts though.

Me too.

 

[bemused]

Miliband is really talking some shite at the moment:

He argued: "The differences at this election are the widest they've been for a generation, but at the same time this election is set to be the closest for a generation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-31764576

Looks like the SNP has him shitting his pants.

 

[laptop]

Maybe this should go in the "ruthlessly incompetent" thread, but:

How does this whole "David Cameron calls on Labour's Ed Miliband to rule out a post-election deal between his party and the SNP" schtick work?

Are we supposed to be afraid that if we vote Labour we'll have to eat haggis and get out our passport on the way to Edinburgh?



(I know there's a self-consistent argument that the SNP holding the balance of power Endangers The Union, but surely all those in England who care about The Union with Scotland are already swivel-eyed Tory diehards?)

 

[BigTom]

Maybe this should go in the "ruthlessly incompetent" thread, but:

How does this whole "David Cameron calls on Labour's Ed Miliband to rule out a post-election deal between his party and the SNP" schtick work?

Are we supposed to be afraid that if we vote Labour we'll have to eat haggis and get out our passport on the way to Edinburgh?



(I know there's a self-consistent argument that the SNP holding the balance of power Endangers The Union, but surely all those in England who care about The Union with Scotland are already swivel-eyed Tory diehards?)

Could be a play for some who have gone to UKIP - suggesting that if they vote UKIP it'll hand Labour a majority, and they'll go into coalition with SNP and there won't be a UK to be independent anymore. With the polls so tight, I think there'll be a lot of this going on - Tories playing to UKIP voters, Labour to Green, with the message that the election is tight and if you put in a protest vote you'll end up with something you really don't want.

 

[treelover]

Ukip on track for 100-plus second places across England
Analysis predicts huge breakthrough as Nigel Farage provides main threat to three parties

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/07/ukip-100-second-places-may-election-nigel-farage

maybe it is to be expected , such parties and their successes are common in the EU, countries like Sweden even.

 

[treelover]

The analysis, conducted by Robert Ford at the University of Manchester for the Observer, suggests that the biggest threat to the established parties from Ukip will come in future local and national elections after May, once it has put down local roots and established itself in the minds of voters as a real alternative to the incumbent party.

Ford, is he a good analyst?

I know for such a young political analyst he produces some very contentious reports

 

[treelover]

Thinking about it, why is the Guardian highlighting this one researchers views as if they are facts?

 

[brogdale]

Thinking about it, why is the Guardian highlighting this one researchers views as if they are facts?

They're not. His analysis is presented for what it is; psephological prediction.

 

[brogdale]

Tories still well adrift from their 2010 position in England...

 

[weepiper]

Populus poll puts SNP up and Labour down almost 10% in Glasgow in the last 3 months

http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.120260231

The UK wide Populus poll was carried out in February, across the major cities of around 14,000 people with more than 600 in Glasgow.

It showed the rise in SNP support in the city at 9.8% while Labour dropped 9.5% since November last year.

The change since the 2010 election is even greater with the SNP up 28.5% dan Labour down 27.7%.

edit: or to put it another way

 

[Sue]

That must be the much talked about Murphy Effect...

 

[JTG]

That must be the much talked about Murphy Effect...

Murphy's Law would be more apposite

 

[William of Walworth]

Tories still well adrift from their 2010 position in England...

The headline figs in that Smithson tweet don't seem to fit with the online version (from The Obsever itself) of that poll ... or a different one? Please clarify, brogdale ??

 

[weepiper]

More from the Populus polls

http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/snp-even-further-ahead-in-edinburgh-poll-shows-1-3716856

THE SNP is continuing to gain support in Edinburgh as the general election approaches, new polling figures reveal.

Statistics from a series of Populus surveys during February, broken down by city, show the party on 41.6 per cent across the Capital compared with 23.3 per cent for Labour, 18.2 per cent for the Tories and 7.4 per cent for the Liberal Democrats.

I think this is an amalgam of several polls, looks like the highest number of Edinburgh respondents I can find after a quick scan of the Populus website is 466 so small pinch of salt, but still.

 

[SpineyNorman]

My first GE was 1997 and I voted Labour just because I'd only ever known Tory governments and naively believed against all evidence that Blair would turn out to be Atlee mkII. I was a fucking idiot. Fortuately the MP I cast my vote for was none other than Tony Benn so I don't really regret it.

Since then it's been spunking cock apart from once (can't remember which election or what seat I was in) when the Communist Party stood and I couldn't resist it.

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[weepiper]

Kellner's commentary on that YouGov poll

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/13/snp-remains-course-landslide/

 

[miktheword]

Labour 2 ahead in opinium, spoiling the guardian's earlier this week, 'il surpasso' analysis and then after remarking that comres last night also had same two point lead, they unashamedly state that talk of Tory surge may have been premature

 

[William of Walworth]

Yes, I did think Alberto Nardelli (in the Guardian in the week) was overdoing that surpasso thing -- I was far from sure he had enough data to go on, to be drawing such a bold conclusion.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Its still pretty much even stevens in the polls. What does seem to be happening is that both labour and tory vote shares are creeping up - maybe at the expense of UKIP and the greens - but this is an uneven process so you get a little boost for the tories, then a little boost for labour.
Many experts have been using models based on previous elections and have been predicting that the torys will steadily climb into the lead - but they have been saying this for about a year and it doesn't seem to be happening - certainly not on a big enough scale for them to win.
What it does mean is that everytime you get the odd poll showing a tory lead, they all start shouting - "The Tory Swingback is here!" - but are then the next batch of polls show a slight labour lead and they all go quiet again.

 

[butchersapron]

Ashcroft's latest marginals seem to indicate a sizable-ish increae in swing to labour in the ones polled this time - and UKIP and greens taking huge lumps out of tories and lib-dems

 

[weepiper]

 

[Kaka Tim]

Ashcrofts marginal polls suggest the lib dems will be stacking up the lost deposits come may 7th.

Maybe we should have a prediction poll for that - over 100? 150? £500 a pop too.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Ashcrofts marginal polls suggest the lib dems will be stacking up the lost deposits come may 7th.

Maybe we should have a prediction poll for that - over 100? 150? £500 a pop too.

I reckon over 150 as they will be so thinly stretched. Especially if they're focusing activists/Councillors in winnable seats.

 

[danny la rouge]

"Less than seven weeks to go and the Labour Scottish nightmare continues"

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/in...d-the-labour-nightmare-in-scotland-continues/

 

[danny la rouge]

ICM poll: Labour faces wipeout in Scotland after new leader fails to dent SNP support
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/23/labour-faces-electoral-rout-scotland-snp

"Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, Scotland’s pre-eminent psephologist, calculated the post-2010 swing in each class of constituency, and concluded that Scottish Labour could be wiped out in all but two seats.

On Curtice’s alternative projection, which takes into account the SNP’s disproportionate surge in Labour’s heartlands, the SNP would snatch 53 of Scotland’s 59 seats.

The three other parties would split the remaining six equally – with two seats apiece. The extraordinary implication is that Scottish Labour would be left with no more representation than the Scottish Tories, who have been semi-extinct at Westminster since 1997".

He said: “There is nothing in these patterns to suggest that the rise of the SNP is not extending to supposedly safe Labour heartlands – if anything, the opposite is the case”.

 

[brogdale]

No evidence of the budget having a meaningful effect upon polling....

Putting all the five post-budget polls together, I can see no sign of any significant budget boost. If other polls had echoed Opinium’s finding then it would be fair to conclude that the budget had moved votes to the Tories, but so far they haven’t – Survation have shown only a twitch in the Conservative direction, YouGov looks stable, Populus’s Friday poll showed movement to Labour. This all looks to me like normal random variation. I may be wrong, perhaps when we’ve a week of post-budget polls we’ll be able to detect some more subtle movement, but it certainly doesn’t look like it’s been some great game changer.

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft has level pegging on the national, but the kippers continue to sink...

 

[bemused]

I must admit I chuckled when Ed had his photo taken in the second kitchen in his house because the first was deemed too posh. At least Davy doesn't pretend he's not rich. I'm not voting for either of them but I do see Ed Miliband as a walking train wreck and the sooner the Labour party ditch him for someone even half way authentic the better. Shame Alan Johnson was never elected Leader.