Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
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brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
which would play out as...
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Deleted drunken rant.
About the third one deleted tonight as it goes.
About the third one deleted tonight as it goes.
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When I'm sober then weepiper ! Such may happen before the General Ejection ....
Put it this way for now ... down here, those of us who hate the Tories/LibDems can in many places have fewer clear ways than in Scotland (pragmatically thinking -- given the polls and electoral system) of 'kicking them out'.
Those of us down here too, who'd agree that the Labour Party is pretty rubbish/scarcely or no different themselves, I mean ..... deleted rant was frustration.
Back later
ETA : But in one of the more specifically Scottish threads I reckon, not the polling one. Or OTOH I might decide to steer well clear altogether --because however much I try to understand Scottish conditions, they seem pretty radically different to what I understand (better) down here.
Put it this way for now ... down here, those of us who hate the Tories/LibDems can in many places have fewer clear ways than in Scotland (pragmatically thinking -- given the polls and electoral system) of 'kicking them out'.
Those of us down here too, who'd agree that the Labour Party is pretty rubbish/scarcely or no different themselves, I mean ..... deleted rant was frustration.
Back later
ETA : But in one of the more specifically Scottish threads I reckon, not the polling one. Or OTOH I might decide to steer well clear altogether --because however much I try to understand Scottish conditions, they seem pretty radically different to what I understand (better) down here.
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danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
OK, it really does look like I have to reconsider my forecast. I had always thought the real SNP advance was going to be some way behind the polling. But looking at those results from No voting areas, I'm forced to rethink that. You can't ignore the evidence. It's poll after poll after poll.
Anecdotally, I'm putting that together with people I've spoken to here (a No area) who voted No and who tell me they're voting SNP in May. Many of these voted Labour in the past (it's a Labour seat), and say things like they're "disgusted with Labour", and that "we always vote Labour, but it makes no difference" and so on.
Like the people Anthony from YouGov refers to, I had assumed the SNP would achieve 20 - 30 seats (and perhaps fewer, given the way FPTP falls) rather than 40 -50, but if the specific No area polling is giving such big SNP returns, I have to concede that it looks like I was wrong.
It's a long time until May, but unless something changes, it looks like the SNP is indeed going to sweep the boards in Scotland.
Anecdotally, I'm putting that together with people I've spoken to here (a No area) who voted No and who tell me they're voting SNP in May. Many of these voted Labour in the past (it's a Labour seat), and say things like they're "disgusted with Labour", and that "we always vote Labour, but it makes no difference" and so on.
Like the people Anthony from YouGov refers to, I had assumed the SNP would achieve 20 - 30 seats (and perhaps fewer, given the way FPTP falls) rather than 40 -50, but if the specific No area polling is giving such big SNP returns, I have to concede that it looks like I was wrong.
It's a long time until May, but unless something changes, it looks like the SNP is indeed going to sweep the boards in Scotland.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
John Curtice is worth reading on this:
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/03/ashcroft-shows-snp-advancing-voting-areas/
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/03/ashcroft-shows-snp-advancing-voting-areas/
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
So was the independence referendum a masterstroke of political manoeuvring or just a happy accident for the tories? It's almost certainly killed off the chance of a labour overall majority. I remember when it looked like a strategic fuck-up in the panic a week before.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
I don't think you're right about some of those assumptions.
First, the SNP revival began before the end of the Indy ref campaign.
Secondly, this must be more complex than about independence, as the SNP is doing extremely well in No majority areas.
Thirdly, there aren't enough Scottish seats to make too much difference. Labour got huge majorities that dwarfed the total number of Scottish seats in the Blair years. They'd still have been huge majorities even if every single Scottish seat had been SNP in 97. And furthermore, Labour were already on course to be a minority government.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
UK-wide, it seems pretty likely though this time, to be a lot closer than GE's prior to 2010? I mean according to almost all general (not Scotland-specific) polls. Just saying ...
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Yes, it does. It looks like a minority Labour administration.
.... which might be depending on the party that has just crushed them in Scotland for help ...
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Indeed.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Will, I'm planning on voting the same way I did in 97, if that's a comfort at all.
Hth
Hth
Ah, 1997. A fresh-faced student kabbes votes in his first general election. He is young and idealistic and thinks that Blair is actually going to sweep in and undo all the Tory policies that are the only government that kabbes has ever known.
That didn't go so well.
That didn't go so well.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
My first vote at a general election was 83.
Did they have pencils back then? Or did you have to vote by declaring an oath in iambic pentemeter?
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
We weren't allowed to draw selfies in our polling booths.
Snap! I managed to vote in two different London constituencies back then, as well
Frank Dobson and Peter Shore both got elected, but the Tories swept in generally, with a massive landslide.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
great Tory election poster that year, blairs face with the eye section ripped out and replaced withred demon eyes 'new labour, new danger'
halcyon days. You couldd still buy mountain dew
You can still get Mountain Dew and Blair is still a danger, it's like nothing has changed. Anyone fancy a game of sensible soccer on the Amiga whilst listening to Shed Seven?
el-ahrairah
forward communism, forward gerbils!
97 was my first general election. as is typical for young people my politics were all over the place. i think at the time i called myself a green anarchist... but i was going to vote lib dem! then decided at the last minute to vote labour because vivian bendall, the local tory mp, was such a massive shit and had a huge majority.
what a ridiculous thing youth is.
what a ridiculous thing youth is.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
My first was a euro election in 89 I think, probably voted green, they would score in the high teens locally in a true blue seat. Some proper posh old guy in a blue rosette outside of the church hall tried to engage me by asking 'if I'd come far on that contraption' referring to my bike. I think it always felt like Tories round there came from another planet (the local MP was proper old school landed gentry that lived in a mansion). We were always stealing or destroying the 'vote conservative' signs in the garden of the massive house on the corner of the posh road as though that would somehow turn the tide.
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
He actually looks like that poster now.
My first election was the North Lincolnshire council elections in 1996 where I had 3 votes so cast one for Labour, one Libdem, and one independent to maximise the anti-Tory vote. The independent got in and joined the Tories a year later lol.
Learned my lesson and voted and leafleted for Labour in 97 and we won a previously safe Tory seat though partly due to boundary changes and partly due to cash for questions
Learned my lesson and voted and leafleted for Labour in 97 and we won a previously safe Tory seat though partly due to boundary changes and partly due to cash for questions
Growing up, my dad was a shop steward and my mum worked for a homeless charity. Politics wasn't complicated -- we liked Tony Benn and Arthur Scargill and we hated Thatcher and Tebbitt. I met John Smith in 1993 as a 16 year-old at a Labour rally that we attended because my mum was standing as a Labour councillor (I canvassed for her, she lost by about 50 votes). I was aware that my parents didn't trust Tony Blair but come 1997, when I was 20, who else was I going to vote for but Labour?
Things have changed since. My dad became management and then retired. My mum got disillusioned by the charity sector. My parents still profess to have socialist views but they then say and do a lot of things that their younger selves would have been horrified by. I drifted more liberal for a while before reading a lot of things and heading back far more leftward than we had ever been growing up. And I wouldn't touch the current Labour lot with a barge pole.
Things have changed since. My dad became management and then retired. My mum got disillusioned by the charity sector. My parents still profess to have socialist views but they then say and do a lot of things that their younger selves would have been horrified by. I drifted more liberal for a while before reading a lot of things and heading back far more leftward than we had ever been growing up. And I wouldn't touch the current Labour lot with a barge pole.
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