danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Further to your query, the Guardian has this to say: http://www.theguardian.com/politics...hanging?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
I tried to find this last night and failed, then found it now : Alberto Nardelli (Guardian) analyses the Greens possible impact on the larger parties' support levels, especially if they strengthen any further.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Trouble with articles like that is that they don't consider that greens might be more likely to vote labour if it was a close fight to remove a tory, so it won't be 5 or 7% across the board. It might help the tories take some libdem seats, since that's where most of the green support has come from.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...e-political-landscape-in-scotland-is-changing
Not a proper poll or anything but thought I'd stick this here. Can't say I'm surprised by the sentiments expressed... (Oh, and nothing to do with Tommy S, you'll be relieved to hear.)
Not a proper poll or anything but thought I'd stick this here. Can't say I'm surprised by the sentiments expressed... (Oh, and nothing to do with Tommy S, you'll be relieved to hear.)
Very fair point.
Monbiot, also in the Guardian, has not long ago urged people to vote Green irrespective of polls, and IMO he's pretty ignorant of the relevant psephology as well.
Tactical voting in particular seats is so often dismissed. In my view unforgivably, if you risk ending up with a Tory out and out majority
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Ashcroft volatility:
Latest Ashcroft poll (20 - 22 Feb):
LAB - 36% (+5)
CON - 32% (+2)
UKIP - 11% (-5)
GRN - 8% (-)
LDEM - 7% (-2)
For england only:
LAB 38
CON 32
UKIP 13
GRN 8
LD 6
That guaranteed lab maj territory.
The share of the others starting to drop - still historically high though.
Latest Ashcroft poll (20 - 22 Feb):
LAB - 36% (+5)
CON - 32% (+2)
UKIP - 11% (-5)
GRN - 8% (-)
LDEM - 7% (-2)
For england only:
LAB 38
CON 32
UKIP 13
GRN 8
LD 6
That guaranteed lab maj territory.
The share of the others starting to drop - still historically high though.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Albeit Lord Volatile's polling, those Eng only numbers will terrify the vermin.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I'm thinking they must be wrong - the other way round. (the eng figs)
Lo Siento.
Second As Farce
Very fair point.
Monbiot, also in the Guardian, has not long ago urged people to vote Green irrespective of polls, and IMO he's pretty ignorant of the relevant psephology as well.
Tactical voting in particular seats is so often dismissed. In my view unforgivably, if you risk ending up with a Tory out and out majority
I wonder how much the rise of constituency polling is going to change tactical voting. Before it was a pretty solid way of perpetuating the status quo, because it would usually make most sense to vote for whoever finished first and second in the last election. Now you've got constituencies like Great Grimsby where Labour and UKIP can argue on the basis of Ashcroft's polling that the choice is really between them... (rather than being a Con-Lab marginal with UKIP nowhere)
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Btw Constituency polling counts towards the allotted amount each candidate can spend on their campaign - so they're going to dry up.
Lo Siento.
Second As Farce
How does that work? Like if Ashcroft does a poll in Great Grimsby does the cost go on the Tory candidate's allotted amount?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Not sure, the stuff the lib-dems paid for and have been paying for does count - on what basis i'm not sure. A divided amount (national vs seats) is the the only way i can think of. But all panicky candidates paying for individual ones from now on - it counts and comes off your leaflet budget
Lo Siento.
Second As Farce
ah I get you. Either way, in the 130-150 seats Ashcroft has already done the figures will go on leaflets, work their way into local canvassing etc and might have an impact...
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Yep, he's doing political work here. Backseat driving. Attempted anyway.
Lo Siento.
Second As Farce
Yeah, the Scotland ones presumably being about convincing potential SNP voters that it was worth voting in safe Labour seats...
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
What a white knight he's being for poll-followers though.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
No, I don't think so. The vermin number remains unchanged because they are virtually English only, and the Eng Lab % is enhanced by the lack of nationalist leakage.
Lo Siento.
Second As Farce
Eng Lab have been polling above Scot Lab since August last year...
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yep, and as such those English only numbers are, like I said, pretty fucking disastrous for the vermin. Ususal polling caveats.
I'm pretty sure constituency polling only counts towards your spending if you're the one doing it.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
That's what i said.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Will to have to look at the Ashcroft tabs in detail, but I'm beginning to wonder if the shedding of UKIP support might end up acting as a second 'crutch' for Lab. Their former Lab support has certainly been a more recent phenomena so, possibly less sticky...particularly at a time when the tory media are engaged in such a dirty war against the 'kippers. Maybe Crosby's effort will drive a Lab surge?
so will Ashcroft affect that?
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Will to have to look at the Ashcroft tabs in detail, but I'm beginning to wonder if the shedding of UKIP support might end up acting as a second 'crutch' for Lab. Their former Lab support has certainly been a more recent phenomena so, possibly less sticky...particularly at a time when the tory media are engaged in such a dirty war against the 'kippers. Maybe Crosby's effort will drive a Lab surge?
Unfortunately I suspect those right-wing tories who thought Cameron was fucked anyway so they might as well vote moonbat are now viewing a situation whereby the vermin might pull it off (via coalition rather than overall) and one where Miliband isn't a certainty, and so they're less likely to throw their vote away in protest at Cameron's socially liberal nonsense and instead stick with the team. On the other hand, Labour supporters who migrated to the kippers aren't really being given any reason to go back.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Nope - the individual lib-dems ones talked about this week might well be. I think that's going to have to go to judgment. I think they should count.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
What do you make of the Scottish Labour folks recommending people vote tactically for the Tories in seats Labour can't win to keep the SNP out? Does that not risk ending up with a Tory majority?Tactical voting in particular seats is so often dismissed. In my view unforgivably, if you risk ending up with a Tory out and out majority
Real socialists vote Tory
free spirit
more tea vicar?
I see he's wiped his twitter account fairly swiftly.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Why does bragg need to be in there?
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
He had the screen shot. The account disappeared after the shit hit the fan. So I used Bragg's tweet about it, as I didn't grab it before the account went.
McNeill's on the Scottish Labour Policy Forum.
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