Political polling

[Kaka Tim]

The two point Lab lead is showing up in a good deal of recent polling.

Opinium have topline figures of :-

CON 33%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 14%(-1), GRN 6%(-2). Both the main parties up one point and last week’s two point Labour lead remaining unchanged. Tabs are here.

ComRes have topline figures of:-

CON 32%(-1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 16%(-2), GRN 4%(+1). The Conservatives down one point, so both polls show a two point Labour lead, but neither show any significant change compared to their previous poll.

Latest you gov -

LAB – 35% (+1)
CON – 32% (+1)
UKIP – 15% (-)
LDEM – 7% (-)
GRN – 6% (-1)

So all three polls showing a small but steady labour lead after near parity in the polls a few weeks ago. A bucket of shit has been emptied over milliand's head but to no avail. At what point do the Tories start sniping at each other? Seeing as osbourne and cameron are doing even worse pollwise than the hapless milliband.

 

[brogdale]

Latest you gov -

LAB – 35% (+1)
CON – 32% (+1)
UKIP – 15% (-)
LDEM – 7% (-)
GRN – 6% (-1)

So all three polls showing a small but steady labour lead after near parity in the polls a few weeks ago. A bucket of shit has been emptied over milliand's head but to no avail. At what point do the Tories start sniping at each other? Seeing as osbourne and cameron are doing even worse pollwise than the hapless milliband.

Yep. All suggests that the vermin would require something like a 10%+ swing from where they are today. Tall order in under 3 months; especially as their negative campaign strategy (Plan A) has, thus far, failed.

 

[Santino]

Maybe someone could be persuaded to invade the Falklands.

 

[redsquirrel]

At what point do the Tories start sniping at each other? Seeing as osbourne and cameron are doing even worse pollwise than the hapless milliband.

Well I don't suppose any of the frontbench are going to put there heads up now, May, Osbourne etc can wait until after the election. What has surprised me a bit is that there hasn't been more complaints from the backbenchers, particularly those in marginal seats.

 

[free spirit]

Latest Ipsos Mori

Con 34 (+1)
Lab 36 (+2)
Lib Dem 6 (-2)
SNP / PC 7 (+ 3)
Green 7 (-1)
UKIP 9 (-2)
Other 1 (nc)

 

[Roadkill]

Latest Guardian/ICM poll.

Con 36 (+6)
Lab 32 (-1)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 9 (-2)
GRN 7 (-2)
Others 7 (NC)

An outlier, although predictably you wouldn't know it from the Graun's story...

 

[butchersapron]

Latest Guardian/ICM poll.

Con 36 (+6)
Lab 32 (-1)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 9 (-2)
GRN 7 (-2)
Others 7 (NC)

An outlier, although predictably you wouldn't know it from the Graun's story...

It would be interesting to match headline to poll over the last few years from them.

 

[Roadkill]

It would be interesting to match headline to poll over the last few years from them.

It would - and for every other newspaper with a tame pollster. Not an exercise I've the time or energy for though!

 

[Dogsauce]

Not sure I'd like to see a seat breakdown on that one. It had better bloody be an outlier.

There is a sickening feeling in my gut that the vermin might pull this one off, not outright but with the support of others as before. I know whatever emerges from the election (based on current likely outcomes) isn't going to be great, but I don't think I could swallow the smugness of the tories remaining in control.

 

[treelover]

Used to work for these orifices...used to just speak to the first 1000 people regardless of quota limits!

Why the Guarniad still employs them is beyond me;could recommend a dozen more reliable companies, in an industry oft populated by complete cock-ends

Comment on CIF, still alarming though, 'it's the economy stupid'?

 

[treelover]

"While it tends to be the polls that show unusual results or big changes that get all the attention, they are actually the ones we should be most dubious about. If there has been a genuine surge in Conservative support, then we’ll see it across all the pollsters, and other polls so far this month have shown things pretty stable."

Anthony Wells of YouGov

 

[treelover]

But has UKIP masked the real support of the Tories, if they go down in the polls, does the Tory vote increase?

 

[butchersapron]

But has UKIP masked the real support of the Tories, if they go down in the polls, does the Tory vote increase?

Any thoughts?

 

[treelover]

I don't know, when it comes to polls, maths, calculations, etc I have difficulties, that's why I am asking the experts.,

 

[kabbes]

Is every UKIP voter a Tory voter in disguise, to your beliefs? Is it a one-to-one match?

 

[Dogsauce]

Is every UKIP voter a Tory voter in disguise, to your beliefs? Is it a one-to-one match?

I think the stats not that long ago showed something like 70% ex-tory, but that more recent support was split more evenly. A drop in UKIP vote is more likely to favour the tories, although it wouldn't necessarily be the case that they'd shed support in proportion to where their voters previously came from.

 

[kabbes]

Exactly.

 

[treelover]

Is every UKIP voter a Tory voter in disguise, to your beliefs? Is it a one-to-one match?

no, that's why I asked the question.

 

[kabbes]

no, that's why I asked the question.

In that case, a reduction in UKIP will not directly correspond to an increase in Tory.

 

[Fez909]

In that case, a reduction in UKIP will not directly correspond to an increase in Tory.

It would, unless you're claiming the opposite: that zero UKIP voters are Tory-voters in disguise.

 

[Kaka Tim]

The ICM poll is almost certainly an outlier - dont panic.

 

[kabbes]

It would, unless you're claiming the opposite: that zero UKIP voters are Tory-voters in disguise.

Directly correspond.

 

[Fez909]

Directly correspond.

But there is a direct relationship between the number of people who vote for UKIP and the number of people who vote Tory - it's just not 1:1

 

[kabbes]

you know damn well what was being asked and answered and what that context was.

 

[Fez909]

True. Sorry

 

[butchersapron]

Neg tory surge-ashcroft:

Lab 31% (-)
Con 30% (-4)
UKIP 16% (+2)
Lib Dem 9% (-)
Green 8% (+2)

 

[butchersapron]

Are the polls volatile? No, one set of polls are suspiciously volatile - ashcrofts. The rest are follewing the trend of a labour 2-3% lead with increasing total votes for lab/tory combined.

 

[Fez909]

The narrow margin for Labour echoes most recent published polls, but with a lower combined share for the two main parties. Could it be that voters have found the exchange of insults over donors and their tax arrangements an unappetising spectacle?

He hopes.

 

[redsquirrel]

There is a sickening feeling in my gut that the vermin might pull this one off, not outright but with the support of others as before.

How? To do that they'd almost certainly have to increase there own support as the LDs are going to lose seats. No other party has the willingness to enter a coalition combined with the numbers needed. And while it's theoretically possible under FPTP that the Tories could get an increased number of seats on a lower share of the vote it's not very likely and not backed up the polling of Lab-Tory marginals that I've seen.

What 2010 showed, and IMO 2015 will confirm, is that the Tories crown of being the "natural party of government" is gone.

EDIT: Also from where I'm standing the current predictions, minority government with no realistic coalition on the cards, are among the best results possible. A really split HoC with lots of problems for whatever government is in power, plus the parties stuck in such a situation for 5 years because of the LDs stupidity. Lot's of opportunities for pro-wc politics if they can be grasped.

 

[Sasaferrato]

How? To do that they'd almost certainly have to increase there own support as the LDs are going to lose seats. No other party has the willingness to enter a coalition combined with the numbers needed. And while it's theoretically possible under FPTP that the Tories could get an increased number of seats on a lower share of the vote it's not very likely and not backed up the polling of Lab-Tory marginals that I've seen.

What 2010 showed, and IMO 2015 will confirm, is that the Tories crown of being the "natural party of government" is gone.

EDIT: Also from where I'm standing the current predictions, minority government with no realistic coalition on the cards, are among the best results possible. A really split HoC with lots of problems for whatever government is in power, plus the parties stuck in such a situation for 5 years because of the LDs stupidity. Lot's of opportunities for pro-wc politics if they can be grasped.

I would suspect that whoever becomes the party of government, the abolition of fixed term parliaments will go.

A Labour (OK, they are not.) victory would be welcomed, over an ad hoc half-decade of behind the scenes horse trading.

My nightmare is the SNP holding the balance. Believe me, the people of England wouldn't like it either.