Political polling

[butchersapron]

Wasted money - as is the youtube front they've opened up.

 

[brogdale]

Earlier this week it came to light that a poll I published last November in Sheffield Hallam included a mistake in the data. Concerned that this may not have been an isolated incident, I reviewed two other polls I commissioned from the same company at the same time. As I feared, the mistakes had been repeated.

The data has now been corrected, and the upshot is that in Sheffield Hallam, rather than having a three-point lead Nick Clegg should have been three points behind Labour:

LAB 30%, LDEM 27%, CON 19%, UKIP 13%, GRN 10%.

In Thanet South, rather than a five-point Conservative lead, the poll should have shown a very tight race with UKIP’s Nigel Farage:

CON 33%, UKIP 32%, LAB 26%, LIB DEM 4%, GRN 3%

And in Doncaster North Ed Miliband is a full thirty points clear of his nearest challenger:



LAB 55%, UKIP 25%, CON 13%, LIB DEM 4%, GRN 2%.

The results have been updated on the Constituency Polls section of my website, and the corrected data tables for Hallam, Thanet and Doncaster are also on my site.

...

So I must disclose that these three surveys last November are the first and only I have commissioned from a well-known but relatively new polling firm. And no, I won’t be using them again.

This has got to be a worry for Ashcroft, and a blow to his credibility. Not naming the firm will also stoke-up chatter about other polling he has commissioned. After all, AFAICT the only reason that the tories are fave to re-take Rochester off Reckless is an Ashcroft poll.

 

[laptop]

Not naming the firm

Welll... almost not naming:

a well-known but relatively new polling firm

Gimme a "Y", an "o", a "u", a "G"...

 

[brogdale]

Welll... almost not naming:



Gimme a "Y", an "o", a "u", a "G"...

Oh, is that right? YouGov, then?

 

[The Boy]

Survation are the newest of the big names, aren't they?

 

[butchersapron]

I think it's Survation - it's def not ICM or YouGov.

 

[laptop]

I think it's Survation - it's def not ICM or YouGov.

OK then... but still nearly named.

 

[treelover]

http://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1423334276572/web_OpObs_Poll_State_of_Par.svg

Labour extends lead over Conservatives despite attacks from business

Opinion poll puts Ed Miliband’s party 2 points up on Tories although David Cameron enjoys clear lead in personal approval ratings

Labour stands on 34%, up 1 point on a fortnight ago, while the Tories are unchanged on 32%. Ukip, which is edging downwards, has dropped 3 points to 15%, while the Greens are up 2 points on 8%, ahead of the Lib Dems, who are also up 2 points, on 7%.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/07/labour-conservatives-opinion-poll-miliband-cameron

 

[bemused]

It's interesting that Cameron is more respected than his party and Miliband less so.

 

[Dogsauce]

I thought Farage normally did well on these things. Are there previous polls or graphs for comparison?

 

[JTG]

I thought Farage normally did well on these things. Are there previous polls or graphs for comparison?

He is doing well on that, he's the second most popular leader

 

[killer b]

It's interesting that Cameron is more respected than his party and Miliband less so.

Is it? Considering the constant character assassinations from his own side as well as the opposition, it's not particularly surprising. Cameron gets a relatively easy ride - his ministers cop the flak for the bad shit much more. For Miliband it's been a case of his competence / integrity / sexual magnetism being constantly questioned and mocked since he became leader. Not so for Cameron.

 

[kabbes]

I thought Farage normally did well on these things. Are there previous polls or graphs for comparison?

Farage is very popular amongst a small section of the population and hated by a much bigger one.

 

[The Boy]

He's consistently been polling behind his party too, no?

 

[redsquirrel]

He's consistently been polling behind his party too, no?

Correct

 

[weepiper]

Have you seen Nicola Sturgeon's most recent approval rating? It's pretty sky-high

The Panelbase survey of 1,018 people, commissioned by the SNP, found that 59% trusted the First Minister while 27% did not.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...p-the-trust-ratings-finds-snp-poll.1419867427

 

[danny la rouge]

"SNP set to double its vote in general election, poll finds
New TNS poll suggests the party’s lead over Scottish Labour has dropped to 10 points, still putting half of Labour’s 41 Westminster seats at risk"

Guardian

So, different methodology, different pollster, and hugely different to Survation, YouGov, ICM and Ipsos-Mori, who all have the SNP lead at double that (Ipsos-Mori nearly trebling the TNS lead!). But although this may look to some on the face of it like an outlier, I think we're into more realistic territory now. This would still be a huge blow to Labour were the result to look anything like this in May, but they'll be able to say they've pulled back from the abyss and claim it as a victory of sorts.

Also, we're now at a level where, given FPTP and the size of some of the majorities we're talking about, the dominoes might not tumble as evenly as the 20%-28% SNP leads might have suggested.

 

[bemused]

Have you seen Nicola Sturgeon's most recent approval rating? It's pretty sky-high

I'd vote for her, she comes across as an actual human being.

 

[brogdale]

I'd vote for her, she comes across as an actual human being.

It's a smart trick for a politician. How has she disguised the psychopathy?

 

[brogdale]

Smithson has put this out there as genuine...

No 93?
Cya Kells

 

[killer b]

what is that?

 

[The Boy]

Any chance of a translation?

 

[brogdale]

..and No.96...that was a seat where the vermin got 50% in 2010!

 

[brogdale]

what is that?

 

[The Boy]

..and No.96...that was a seat where the vermin got 50% in 2010!

Hmmm. Doesn't the list include seats they don't need to target due to the high likelyhood of winning anyway?

 

[killer b]

..and No.96...that was a seat where the vermin got 50% in 2010!

"Non target" appears to include those where Conservatives can expect a win without campaign effort as well as those they don't think they can win.

 

[brogdale]

Hmmm. Doesn't the list include seats they don't need to target due to the high likelyhood of winning anyway?

That's certainly true, but Boston? Haven't the kippers long had their eyes on that? Can the vermin really relax there?

 

[Roadkill]

Hmmm. Doesn't the list include seats they don't need to target due to the high likelyhood of winning anyway?

Must do. There are some very safe Tory seats on that list, but also those where they haven't a cat in hell's chance. I'm not in the least surprised to see my constituency - Hull north - on there: it's been obvious for ages they're mounting a half-arsed effort at most, not least from the cheaply printed, badly proof-read A4 sheets that the local candidate has been dropping through letterboxes recently.

It's basically just a reflection of how under FPTP a few swing seats exert a disproportionate influence, and the main parties therefore throw resources at them whilst neglecting the safe seats and no-hopers.

 

[brogdale]

That's certainly true, but Boston? Haven't the kippers long had their eyes on that? Can the vermin really relax there?

e2a : http://www.bostonstandard.co.uk/new...rse-to-win-boston-and-skegness-seat-1-6325219

 

[brogdale]

Must do. There are some very safe Tory seats on that list, but also those where they haven't a cat in hell's chance. I'm not in the least surprised to see my constituency - Hull north - on there: it's been obvious for ages they're mounting a half-arsed effort at most, not least from the cheaply printed, badly proof-read A4 sheets that the local candidate has been dropping through letterboxes recently.

Quite, but the 'news-worthy' elements are the constituencies that are far from obvious. If genuine, this is telling us something important about what the vermin really think about the kipper threat.