Political polling

[Spanky Longhorn]

MacBook Makhnovists (Pro)

surely macbook proletarians?

 

[weepiper]

Oh my

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Here's the directory with the "leaked" data

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/

 

[killer b]

some interesting things in there...

 

[killer b]

oh, actually not that interesting. as you were.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

some interesting things in there...

He's been tweeting leader/cartoon character things all week.

 

[killer b]

they aren't very good. he should stick to polling.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

they aren't very good. he should stick to polling.

His polling isn't always that great either.

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[brogdale]

Like the Motherwell & Wishaw SVI for LDs!

 

[danny la rouge]

Like the Motherwell & Wishaw SVI for LDs!

Jonathan Shafi of RIC gave this as his analysis of the Lib Dem stats in Ashcroft:

"Lol".

 

[brogdale]

Alexander 29% behind in Inverness; bank directorship calling.

 

[redsquirrel]

Alexander 29% behind in Inverness; bank directorship calling.

Ha Ha

 

[brogdale]

I don't know about Edinburgh being 'the Athens of the North', but Labour are doing a pretty good job of being the ΠΑΣΟΚ of the North.

Lol

 

[brogdale]

However...Anthony @YG offers some useful advice about what to look for when Ashcroft fully publishes at 11am...

We don’t know what seats will be included in Lord Ashcroft’s poll yet and we can but hope he goes up into some of the “safer” Labour and Lib Dem seats, and with a broad enough spread to give us some area where the SNP surge is happening. We should expect to see the SNP well ahead in polls in any of the constituencies polled that are near the start of the target list (if not, then something is either wrong with the Scottish national polls or with Lord Ashcroft’s Scottish constituency polls – those SNP votes need to be coming from somewhere!), but it will be interesting to see how the SNP are doing in those seats with the largest Labour and Lib Dem majorities – will they actually be falling short of their implied national swing in those safest Lab and Lib seats, or will they be outperforming the implied national swing? Also look at the two-stage question, and whether Liberal Democrat incumbents are being insulated against the swing to the SNP at all. A third thing to watch is whether there is any obvious regional differences – in the referendum YES did better in Glasgow, West Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire. Will that be reflected in the shift to the SNP at all (certainly it includes some of Labour’s most solid seats, so it would be bad for them if it did).

 

[Sue]

Any figures for E Renfrewshire?

 

[brogdale]

Any figures for E Renfrewshire?

Not yet.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/scottish-battleground/

I assume because it was deemed to be not 'marginal' enough for his 'marginals' polling.

 

[Sue]

Well fingers crossed...

 

[brogdale]

Important to remember that if swings like this were actually realised in May, it would be disastrous for ScotLab, but also for ScotVermin (aka LDs). Each seat the nationalists take from the vermin collaborators reduces the chances of Con-Lib 2.0.

 

[brogdale]

...and that Inverness figure despite some concerted efforts to save his fucking skin...

 

[danny la rouge]

Important to remember that if swings like this were actually realised in May, it would be disastrous for ScotLab, but also for ScotVermin (aka LDs). Each seat the nationalists take from the vermin collaborators reduces the chances of Con-Lib 2.0.

Yup. And on these figures, it looks like the most likely outcome in May would be a minority Labour government, perhaps with confidence and supply from SNP.

 

[brogdale]

Lol

 

[redsquirrel]

I hope that's the way it goes it would be just fucking brilliant.

 

[brogdale]

I hope that's the way it goes it would be just fucking brilliant.

Would be a dead cert if the 12% of soppy studes saying Green piled in to 'decapitate' him.

 

[brogdale]

Clegg says this poll is “such utter, utter bilge”. It is not surprising that a trade union poll shows Labour ahead. He says he spends a lot of time in the constituency.

Some people hate the Tories so much they say they will never forgive him.

Of course he is not a Tory. The longer he has governed with them, the more he realises he isn’t, he says.

From here.

Funnily enough, that's not how the voters see things...obs.

 

[William of Walworth]

Reasonable look at Ashcoft's latest Scotland polls here

Article doesn't pull its punches.

 

[butchersapron]

Earlier this week it came to light that a poll I published last November in Sheffield Hallam included a mistake in the data. Concerned that this may not have been an isolated incident, I reviewed two other polls I commissioned from the same company at the same time. As I feared, the mistakes had been repeated.

The data has now been corrected, and the upshot is that in Sheffield Hallam, rather than having a three-point lead Nick Clegg should have been three points behind Labour:

LAB 30%, LDEM 27%, CON 19%, UKIP 13%, GRN 10%.

In Thanet South, rather than a five-point Conservative lead, the poll should have shown a very tight race with UKIP’s Nigel Farage:

CON 33%, UKIP 32%, LAB 26%, LIB DEM 4%, GRN 3%

And in Doncaster North Ed Miliband is a full thirty points clear of his nearest challenger:



LAB 55%, UKIP 25%, CON 13%, LIB DEM 4%, GRN 2%.

The results have been updated on the Constituency Polls section of my website, and the corrected data tables for Hallam, Thanet and Doncaster are also on my site.

...

So I must disclose that these three surveys last November are the first and only I have commissioned from a well-known but relatively new polling firm. And no, I won’t be using them again.

 

[treelover]

“Like David Cameron’s new Facebook page for the latest updates from the prime minister.” That is what Facebook urged many of its British users to do in a so-called suggested post, paid for by the Conservative party. And perhaps surprisingly, a lot of people did – 470,718 and counting.

This promotion, dropped in to the middle of news feeds otherwise full of drunken selfies and baby pics, did not come cheap for the Tories.

That and other adverts pumped out on Facebook, including some allowing users to hand over their email addresses, are costing the party a whopping £100,000 a month, or £1.2m if continued for a whole year. Put another way: one in every £17 the Tories spent on the last general election campaign is going towards drumming up support on Facebook.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/06/tories-pumping-facebook-advertising-email-ukip

Tories spending a lot on F/B, is it productive?

 

[treelover]

Invoices show the vast bulk of Tory Facebook advertising was actually spent on “email collection” like this: enticing users to sign up to a mailing list by asking them if they want more information on what the prime minister is up to or on policies such as Help to Buy.

Looks like the Tories have learnt from the SWP!

 

[SpookyFrank]

Tories spending a lot on F/B, is it productive?

I doubt anyone who isn't already guaranteed to vote tory is gonna like David Cameron on facebook tbh. But lots of PR and advertising people are making a lot of money these days by dressing this kind of thing up as some clever 'new media' strategy specifically tailored to the client's needs and blah blah blah.