Political polling

[Wilf]

I don't really care at this point how many seats Labour get, as long as they have a majority. My ideal scenario is a good showing for the Greens (4 seats and a vote share of 8%+), JC wins Islington North, a poor result for Reform (Zero seats ideally, or just Clacton, and a vote share less than the LDs)

But I suspect Reform are going to do well tbh.

I think my least bad outcome would be a minority Labour government, reliant on Yellow scum or SNP. Probably not much different in terms of the neoliberal outcomes we'll get, but a 2 term Starmer government with large majority will be very bad for the Labour movement. Its what we'll get though.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[zedr]

Do you have a sense of what it is they like about Reform?

I did the electoral calculus quiz with my class (13-15y/is) today. mainly green/lab, a few lib dems which is very funny to me. few centrists and few reforms.

the kids who are into reform are funny because they're very much against reforms immigration policies (which imo is all reform are offering). they were shocked to hear that their support of immigration was in line with the green party. unfortunately I think they're very online and have been sucked into the manosphere/anti-woke agenda stuff, don't really understand the implications of tax, how its raised and what its spent on and don't care about climate change.

ive mentioned it on other threads but lots of the boys (even the liberal/left lot) watch these nonsense podcasts with meatheads shouting about trans people and 15 minute cites etc and that is strongly shaping their policies. the majority will repeat homophobic/transphobic talking points as if they're common sense.

 

[skyscraper101]

If that poll is correct, all we need is five MPs to defect to the lib dems to make them the official opposition. Not a totally unimaginable situation in the next five years.

 

[zedr]

I did the electoral calculus quiz with my class (13-15y/is) today. mainly green/lab, a few lib dems which is very funny to me. few centrists and few reforms.

the kids who are into reform are funny because they're very much against reforms immigration policies (which imo is all reform are offering). they were shocked to hear that their support of immigration was in line with the green party. unfortunately I think they're very online and have been sucked into the manosphere/anti-woke agenda stuff, don't really understand the implications of tax, how its raised and what its spent on and don't care about climate change.

ive mentioned it on other threads but lots of the boys (even the liberal/left lot) watch these nonsense podcasts with meatheads shouting about trans people and 15 minute cites etc and that is strongly shaping their policies. the majority will repeat homophobic/transphobic talking points as if they're common sense.

all of the kids who use tiktok said they'd seen reform adds. agree with whoever said it upthread that the far right are great at gaming the algorithm.

 

[lazythursday]

I think my least bad outcome would be a minority Labour government, reliant on Yellow scum or SNP. Probably not much different in terms of the neoliberal outcomes we'll get, but a 2 term Starmer government with large majority will be very bad for the Labour movement. Its what we'll get though.

That would be my least bad outcome too, but it's clearly not going to happen, hence I have moved on to something more realistic.

 

[Wilf]

That would be my least bad outcome too, but it's clearly not going to happen, hence I have moved on to something more realistic.

Yep, I'd like to think the Labour Party taking up the stick to crush people even further would generate... something. But can't see any likely scenarios yet.

 

[Dogsauce]

all of the kids who use tiktok said they'd seen reform adds. agree with whoever said it upthread that the far right are great at gaming the algorithm.

I wonder if the Chinese owners have a hand in this? A bit of division in western countries is probably desirable

I think my least bad outcome would be a minority Labour government, reliant on Yellow scum or SNP. Probably not much different in terms of the neoliberal outcomes we'll get, but a 2 term Starmer government with large majority will be very bad for the Labour movement. Its what we'll get though.

yellow scum would sooner jump into a coalition with the vermin again, so that probably won’t happen.

 

[zedr]

I wonder if the Chinese owners have a hand in this? A bit of division in western countries is probably desirable

yellow scum would sooner jump into a coalition with the vermin again, so that probably won’t happen.

i assume its more the 'any interaction is good for the algorithm' kinda thing. hate watches are just as good for them as any other kinds of viewing. at least, that's the issue with youtube and twitter. ive managed to avoid tiktok. in this environment, being a bigot really helps.

i also think this is why jso get so much traction online, just a shame much of their target audience are so scared of their tactics (but thats for another thread)

 

[kebabking]

...yellow scum would sooner jump into a coalition with the vermin again, so that probably won’t happen.

I doubt that. I'd say the SNP were as likely to enter into a coalition with the Tories, and I'd put the likelihood of that at about the same as Kirsty Wark and Kirsty Young asking me out for dinner and a threesome.

 

[cupid_stunt]

yellow scum would sooner jump into a coalition with the vermin again, so that probably won’t happen.

That is never going to happen, after what the Tories did to them in the 2015 GE, targeting their seats, and all but wiping them out.

 

[Balbi]

Bit of an error bar on the Tories there

 

[Steel Icarus]

Electoral Calculus has my seat of Brigg and Immingham at 0.1% Labour over Tories (35% to 34.9%). Gonna be tight as a gnat's chuff. It's a new seat due to boundary changes and incumbent/implied MP Martin Vickers might be out of a job come tomorrow morning. Reform predicted 19% but who knows? I suspect it'll be more than that tbh. One to watch.

 

[moochedit]

Electoral Calculus has my seat of Brigg and Immingham at 0.1% Labour over Tories (35% to 34.9%). Gonna be tight as a gnat's chuff. It's a new seat due to boundary changes and incumbent/implied MP Martin Vickers might be out of a job come tomorrow morning. Reform predicted 19% but who knows? I suspect it'll be more than that tbh. One to watch.

Hopefully reform as high as possible then as they take more tory than labour votes. Obviously not high enough to win.

 

[Wilf]

Hope they do the exit poll reveal like a Strictly dance off. 'Rishi, it isn't you....".

 

[PR1Berske]

Hope they do the exit poll reveal like a Strictly dance off. 'Rishi, it isn't you....".

I still advocate for Eurovision results. Seat by seat. Heck, polling station by polling station.

 

[brogdale]

I still advocate for Eurovision results. Seat by seat. Heck, polling station by polling station.

Not in good place atm, but that made me laugh

 

[moochedit]

Hope they do the exit poll reveal like a Strictly dance off. 'Rishi, it isn't you....".

"Rishi.... your fired!"

 

[PR1Berske]

Not in good place atm, but that made me laugh

Sorry to hear, I do try and help, sometimes on purpose!

 

[Wilf]

I still advocate for Eurovision results. Seat by seat. Heck, polling station by polling station.

'We're hearing there's been a disappointing turnout at the Barnsley temporary caravan (replacing the condemned church). More from our team on the ground...".

 

[Wilf]

Just about the last chance to make a radom prediction before the exit poll: Cons on, erm, 135.

 

[Hotel Chocolate]

I suppose we can close this thread now for another 5 years. speculation over now.

 

[Wilf]

Fuck, 13 for Reflux.

 

[Hotel Chocolate]

about 2% (of MPs) I think.

 

[Dogsauce]

Fuck, 13 for Reflux.

Putin’s guys got the vote out.

There must be some complete headbangers in that 13, suspect a few will get kicked out within weeks or form their own party.

 

[Hotel Chocolate]

Greens only got 2 MPs? WTF!

 

[tony.c]

Fuck, 13 for Reflux.

If that turns out to be correct and Farage presumably one of those, he would get a slot on PMQs.

 

[Wilf]

Fuck, the BBC will be a hard watch with kuensberg and dandelion.

 

[Hotel Chocolate]

Fuck, the BBC will be a hard watch with kuensberg and dandelion.

Sky is worse, it is awful!

 

[Calamity1971]

Fuck, 13 for Reflux.

Fucking grim. One of my customers was bigging him up today ( she's also a chem trail knobhead and anti vaxxer ) Langley park cricket club flying a huge reform flag just down from me Absolute despair here.