Political polling

[jannerboyuk]

Fuck, the BBC will be a hard watch with kuensberg and dandelion.

BBC Wales not a bad alternative, pundit wise at least

 

[Wilf]

Fuck, the BBC will be a hard watch with kuensberg and dandelion.

Hah! Autocorrect, Mandelson not Dandelion.

 

[Calamity1971]

Hah! Autocorrect, Mandelson not Dandelion.

I thought that was your nickname for him and didn't want to ask why.

 

[JimW]

Hah! Autocorrect, Mandelson not Dandelion.

Both make you want to piss the bed, perhaps

 

[Calamity1971]

Both make you want to piss the bed, perhaps

Or you want to blow them...

Sorry.

 

[Elpenor]

Well either the exit poll or the preceding polls are wrong?

 

[Hotel Chocolate]

Well, we will be able to check which opinions polls were nearest to the actual result now.

 

[strung out]

Well either the exit poll or the preceding polls are wrong?

The exit poll is pretty much bang on the average of the MRPs isn’t it?

 

[Elpenor]

The exit poll is pretty much bang on the average of the MRPs isn’t it?

I haven’t seen an average of the MRPs, but I thought they were generally showing a lower number for Tory’s than 131

 

[strung out]

I haven’t seen an average of the MRPs, but I thought they were generally showing a lower number for Tory’s than 131

I just checked and the average is around 105-110 seats for the Tories, so not too far out given the exit poll is showing about 120 seats as too close to call.

 

[Elpenor]

I just checked and the average is around 105-110 seats for the Tories, so not too far out given the exit poll is showing about 120 seats as too close to call.

I predicted tories on 111 (actually I put something else on the thread a bit higher actually, but later decided 111).

 

[redsquirrel]

Fuck, the BBC will be a hard watch with kuensberg and dandelion.

Yeah, don't think I can stand it.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Or you want to blow them...

Sorry.

Did you mean to post that?

 

[Calamity1971]

Did you mean to post that?

I've blown lots of dandelion clocks.

 

[strung out]

I reckon four of them will get in - Tice, Farage for certain, then maybe Anderson and the ex Southampton FC chairman Rupert Lowe who’s standing in Great Yarmouth I think.

Quite proud of this prediction

 

[bluescreen]

Boston and Skegness or South Holland and The Deepings have a lot of Reform-adjacent Tories who may very well switch their allegiance if they fancy the candidate.

Well, I was half right.

 

[Knotted]

I'm thinking the polls are likely overestimating the Labour vote. People who say they are likely to vote Labour may very well just not on election day due to
1) a lack of enthusiasm for Starmer/Labour making Labour's vote soft
2) a reduced and demoralised activist base failing to get the vote out
3) that Starmer/Labour are bad at campaigning failing + playing it safe and thus failing to win over uncertain voters
4) complacency with respect to getting the Tories out.

There are other factors reducing the Labour vote of course such as disgust over Gaza, but that should already be reflected in the polls.

The complacency factor could be a real killer. People tell pollsters that they are likely to vote Labour and mean it, but come the day they might just not.

In my head when I see polls I subtract 5 points from Labour.

However, these factors are most likely to be in play in safe seats. And whereas the Labour vote maybe overestimated that vote will likely be more "efficient" than predicted. The Tories are still absolutely stuffed.

Well I got this wrong. I should haven subtracted about 7 points from Labour.

 

[lazythursday]

Is it clear yet which poll / MRP came closest to the result?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Is it clear yet which poll / MRP came closest to the result?

In MRPs, YouGov & More in Common got nearest on Labour seats, but YouGov was well out on Tory sets, so More in Common wins.



Based on seat predictions on poll aggregators, Britain Predicts was the clear winner.

 

[Wilf]

So, was it Labour stay at homes that fecked the polls? With a wee bit of voter suppression.

 

[moochedit]

So now the starmerbots are in charge, how long do we reckon it'll take before labour are overtaken in the polls? And which party will overtake them?

 

[Hotel Chocolate]

Surely, there is going to be a honeymoon period? then which one of the two Tory Parties will overtake them? - I don't think Labour will be overtaken for ages.

 

[Nine Bob Note]

So now the starmerbots are in charge, how long do we reckon it'll take before labour are overtaken in the polls? And which party will overtake them?

I think there is going to be a significant honeymoon period so long as no scandals emerge (we still don't know what Titchy Rich was trying to avoid by calling an early election). Boring men and women in grey suits are in charge and I suspect that will work for a time, even if Farage and Anderson try shooting fireworks out of their arses for attention.

 

[Silas Loom]

This thread needs to come out of the GE2024 forum now.

 

[moochedit]

This thread needs to come out of the GE2024 forum now.

Probably make more sense to start a new one for the next election (whenever it is)

 

[Silas Loom]

Probably make more sense to start a new one for the next election (whenever it is)

You absolute philistine. Political polling is interesting throughout the electoral cycle!

 

[moochedit]

You absolute philistine. Political polling is interesting throughout the electoral cycle!

I meant to start a new polling thread now but for next election. But it's up to the mods if they move this and/or archive this forum.

 

[Silas Loom]

I meant to start a new polling thread now but for next election. But it's up to the mods if they move this and/or archive this forum.

There’s more to political polling than VI, though.

 

[moochedit]

There’s more to political polling than VI, though.

VI ?

 

[Silas Loom]

VI ?

Voting intention.

Satisfaction scores or attitudinal polls on specific issues are more interesting when there isn’t an election in the offing.