Political polling

[Elpenor]

I suppose everyone understands the words super and majority if not what a supermajority actually is

 

[DotCommunist]

It's an odd one, the term isn't known here, yet it's clicked somehow.

nobody was talking about 'red' or 'blue' wall b4 2017 in the uk as I remember. It was a US import that stuck, well, the red wall bit did. Its snappier and obscures more than 'former labour industrial heartlands' and allows the reader or hack to fill in the stereotype bingo card of their own invention

 

[Knotted]

Electoral calculus based on those numbers:

View attachment 430875

It will be hilarious if the Lib Dems get more seats than the Tories on a lower vote share. First passed the post doesn't look so good now does it?

(Though I increasingly think the Tories are not going to be wiped out fwiw).

 

[cupid_stunt]

From the only polling company that basically got the national percentage of votes bang on for all the last three GEs, they are new to doing MRP predictions, but it's not looking good for the Tories...

Survation MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 | Survation

With two days until polls open, Survation predict that Labour will win the 2024 general election with 484 out of a total 650 seats. The...

www.survation.com

 

[maomao]

It would be most amusing and humiliating if the Tories and LDs tied for seats.

 

[Bingoman]

It would be most amusing and humiliating if the Tories and LDs tied for seats.

What would happen if their were tied on seats would they have to find a coalition with say SNP to help

 

[cupid_stunt]

What would happen if their were tied on seats would they have to find a coalition with say SNP to help

IIRC, if two parties are tied, it comes down to which had the most votes.

 

[strung out]

IIRC, if two parties are tied, it comes down to which had the most votes.

It’s completely up to the speaker and he can decide however he wants.

 

[chilango]

There'd be defections (LD>Tory) if there was a tie. Shameless

 

[Elpenor]

the survation MRP that has come out and has probably given some posters a semi says that my seat will be Labour

I am not sure this is very likely as it goes against all perceived wisdom given it’s a Tory safe seat possibly in play for the Lib Dem’s and also what I’ve seen with my eyes but who knows

It also shows my dad’s constituency of Weald of Kent which is a rural Brexity part as being Labour and if this happens I’ll be very surprised. It was formerly Ashford and held by Damian Green and the new Ashford constituency which is basically just the town of Ashford and no surrounding villages, well that might be Labour. But Weald of Kent I would expect to be one of the 25 safest Tory seats this time round.

 

[kebabking]

Oddly, the Survation MRP suggests that the Greens will win West Worcestershire (though, Labour, Green and Tory are all within 1% of each other), but not North Herefordshire, which had long been a serious Green target.

For South Shropshire (these constituencies all abut each other) it thinks the Tories will just hold it, with Lab and LD's a gnats bollock behind them.

 

[cupid_stunt]

the survation MRP that has come out and has probably given some posters a semi says that my seat will be Labour

Are you referring to me?

Survation is the only one that got the overall national percentage poll figure basically bang on in all of the last three GEs, that's a proven gold standard track record in standard polling.

However, they are new to doing MRPs, and the two other MRPs (yougov and another) done back in 2019 somewhat failed anyway, I think they probably have a reasonable chance of being close on their national seat predictions, but their drilling down at seat level I'll take with a pinch of salt, until they get a proven track record established on doing MRPs.

 

[Elpenor]

Are you referring to me?

Survation is the only one that got the overall national percentage poll figure basically bang on in all of the last three GEs, that's a proven gold standard track record in standard polling.

However, they are new to doing MRPs, and the two MRPs done back in 2019 somewhat failed anyway, I think they probably have a reasonable chance of being close on their national seat predictions, but their drilling down at seat level I'll take with a pinch of salt, until they get a proven track record established on doing MRPs.

A few posters sprang to mind, you weren’t the first one

Yeah I think that’s about it really, their overall total numbers may well be about right but their map of the UK doesn’t seem correct, and that’s probably too difficult to predict without doing a poll in every seat anyway

 

[Balbi]

Survation giving the Tories a maximum of 99 seats is extremely fun though.

 

[cupid_stunt]

A few posters sprang to mind, you weren’t the first one

Oh, fair enough, it's just I've been banging on about Survation being the one to watch for ages, if they let me down this time I'll not be a happy bunny!

Anyway, this in their national percentage share vote, I so hope they've that Reform figure right, that would seriously piss off Farage.

 

[Elpenor]

This is the range of the survation poll

Tomorrows fish and chip wrappers and all that but here it is anyway

 

[cupid_stunt]

I assume these will be the last polls now, two of the newbies - Verian and JL Partners - have constantly come up with lower leads than most polling companies, what I find interesting is the other four have all come up with the exact same 19%, that's something that has certainly not happened in the last three GEs.

I am so hoping Survation is right with their share for Reform, because that puts them back to where they were before Farage took over as leader, which will seriously piss him off, and bring great joy to me. Frankly if that's the best they can do is under the current somewhat unusual circumstances, I doubt they will ever be able to increase that in coming elections, when the Tories have got their act back together again.

If Ashcroft has got the vote share right for both the Tories and Reform, that would put Farage is a far stronger position, which would be very worrying.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Well, Survation has just screwed up my hopes above, by releasing a final 'normal' poll, putting only 1% between the Tories and Reform.

This would be a seriously bad outcome.

 

[kebabking]

Well, Survation has just screwed up my hopes above, by releasing a final 'normal' poll, putting only 1% between the Tories and Reform.

This would be a seriously bad outcome.

View attachment 431691

Dunno. Two parts:

Is it a really bad thing for our society, culture, and politics is 20% of the electorate support a quasi-Fascist, openly racist political 'vision'?

Yes. Yes it is. Absolutely, undoubtedly. And I think that in 2029, that 'vision' in whatever form it takes is going to be the challenge to Labour - and unless a Labour government really get their skates on, it will either come close, or win.

But, for today/tomorrow, like the Tories, their vote looks to be dispersed, and (for different reasons to the Tories) they just don't have the 'get the vote out' machinery. Local constituency parties barely exist, so that door knocking thing which can be critical, just doesn't happen. Effectively that they get votes in opinion polls, because it's easy to say 'reform' (or Tory) to someone on the phone, or by clicking a mouse, but that votes on ballot boxes are harder to come by.

Their vote is also interesting - yes, their vote is older, so most likely to vote, but also their vote is disaffected, so also less likely to vote (at least in part).

I'm getting the jitters. I think that there are lots of seats that Labour is projected to win on margins that are so tight that things like traffic jams and 5 minute rain showers will be the difference between 450 Labour seats and a hundred where Labour will come second by a few hundred votes.

 

[lazythursday]

I don't really care at this point how many seats Labour get, as long as they have a majority. My ideal scenario is a good showing for the Greens (4 seats and a vote share of 8%+), JC wins Islington North, a poor result for Reform (Zero seats ideally, or just Clacton, and a vote share less than the LDs)

But I suspect Reform are going to do well tbh.

 

[ohmyliver]

Can parties enter into a 'official opposition' coalition?

I think given how rabidly batshit the core tory party is that their more 'wet' survivers might be jump to the Lib Dems tho. I suspect that this might be wishful thinking, because I'd rather not see the increasingly Trumpian Tories be the opposition. Although given the war between the 'NOT CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH!!1111!!! and the 'we've abandoned the 'sensible' middle' style Tories on the Conservative Home comments sections who knows.

 

[Dogsauce]

Reform are all over TikTok etc, the far right is quite good at gaming such platforms with bots and viral content. That’s how we got Bolsonaro and how the Republicans kept Florida a few years back. It’s a global thing with big money behind it. I suspect this won’t be the election where it makes a big difference, partly because they don’t have a ‘liberal elite’ government as a target, but give it a few years and this poison will be everywhere.

 

[Cerberus]

Reform are all over TikTok etc, the far right is quite good at gaming such platforms with bots and viral content. That’s how we got Bolsonaro and how the Republicans kept Florida a few years back. It’s a global thing with big money behind it. I suspect this won’t be the election where it makes a big difference, partly because they don’t have a ‘liberal elite’ government as a target, but give it a few years and this poison will be everywhere.

My two lads - 17 and 20 - have told me how prolific Reform have been on Tik Tok. Many of the 17yr olds mates are saying they are ‘gutted’ they can’t vote this time round as they’d vote for them

 

[maomao]

My two lads - 17 and 20 - have told me how prolific Reform have been on Tik Tok. Many of the 17yr olds mates are saying they are ‘gutted’ they can’t vote this time round as they’d vote for them

I work with teenagers and while only a few of them are excited about reform, absolutely none of them are excited about any other political party (or anything other than skibidi toilet for that matter).

 

[Silas Loom]

My two lads - 17 and 20 - have told me how prolific Reform have been on Tik Tok. Many of the 17yr olds mates are saying they are ‘gutted’ they can’t vote this time round as they’d vote for them

Do you have a sense of what it is they like about Reform?

 

[Silas Loom]

Can parties enter into a 'official opposition' coalition?

They’d need to accept a single leader and whip I think.

 

[ska invita]

under 100

I work with teenagers and while only a few of them are excited about reform, absolutely none of them are excited about any other political party (or anything other than skibidi toilet for that matter).

I'm quite curious about the political agenda of Skibidi Toilet. To me it's about the US v Russian empires ( US toilets, Russian cameras). I think it's fairly even handed but I haven't kept up with recent episodes....

 

[Cerberus]

Do you have a sense of what it is they like about Reform?

That’s slightly more difficult to ascertain. I gather that it’s a combination of: Reform using the platform when other established parties haven’t or don’t much; Reform appearing to ‘offer’ something that the other party’s don’t, and here’s the rub - I have no idea what is said behind closed doors but I suspect immigration/little boats etc is something that is being discussed in the homes of their friends and Reform would appear to be willing to have ‘solutions’ to this. I know - depressing as fuck.

 

[Ground Elder]

Do you have a sense of what it is they like about Reform?

Source

Perhaps surprisingly for someone who is only 20, surfer Jamie Luther is erring towards Reform UK "as the best option which makes sense financially, with the tax". Nigel Farage's party would raise the minimum income tax threshold from £12,571 to £20,000, exempting six million people from having to pay income tax.

 

[Silas Loom]

I wonder if people like Deborah Mattinson did some qualitative work on this cohort’s VI drivers before the votes for tots scheme was launched. Maybe gen alpha are nicer than gen zed, and so they need to be brought into play for 2028 to counter the current wave of new voters.