Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
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StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Electoral Calculus have sent out another email [28th June 2024]
based on [summary]
Since our previous update, the Conservatives have gained 1pc in the polls, and Reform have lost 3pc. Labour's lead over the Conservatives is now 19pc. For the first time, the Liberal Democrats are predicted to win slightly more seats than the Conservatives, and we also predict that Reform will win half-a-dozen seats.
This prediction is slightly different to our recent MRP poll. This because public opinion has moved in the last few days, and our predictions are calibrated to the most recent polling. The changes to Reform and Conservative vote shares have changed the seat predictions.
Prediction: Con 65, Lab 465, Lib Dem 71, SNP 18, Reform 6, Labour majority of 280
based on [summary]
Since our previous update, the Conservatives have gained 1pc in the polls, and Reform have lost 3pc. Labour's lead over the Conservatives is now 19pc. For the first time, the Liberal Democrats are predicted to win slightly more seats than the Conservatives, and we also predict that Reform will win half-a-dozen seats.
This prediction is slightly different to our recent MRP poll. This because public opinion has moved in the last few days, and our predictions are calibrated to the most recent polling. The changes to Reform and Conservative vote shares have changed the seat predictions.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
That’s hopelessly optimistic. A lot of the far right shift in Europe is coming from the young, it’s where they’re pushing and organising - see all the men’s rights nonsense, popularity of Andrew Tate / Joe Rogan etc. This stuff is being relentlessly promoted on social media. Polling for Reform is something like 1 in 5 among the young already.
The big parties are offering the next generation nothing on the stuff that matters to them like housing, free education, secure jobs etc. They’ve been milked dry by successive governments for three decades. I can understand why some of them will want to burn it all down by voting for someone they’ve been told not to vote for by the very people responsible for their precariousness.
I don't want to seem complacent, but the situation in UK is quite different to Europe in that we are already accustomed to living in a multi-cultural society, especially younger generations, whereas in Europe the rise in support for far right parties is a response (in part) to an increase in immigration in societies that have little experience of large scale immigration.
You are also incorrect about youth support for Reform:
UK election polls by age 2024 | Statista
In 2024, the political party that 18 to 24 year-old's in Great Britain would be most likely to vote for in the next general election was the Labour Party, at 47 percent, while among those over 65, the Conservative Party was the most popular with 40 percent intending to vote for them.
www.statista.com
Amongst the 18-24 age group, Reform are on 5% and Tories on 4%, so the combined right wing vote is 9%.
The 25-49 age group have 12% support for Reform and 10% for Tories. So that's 22% joint right wing support.
This is in contrast to 50-64 age group where Reform and Tories are in joint place at 22%, with 44% joint share, and the over 65s where Tory support is 33% and 25% for Reform, so 58% share for the right in total.
There's been some articles doing the rounds about youth support for Reform and it is true that younger voters are more likely to be Reform than Tory, but that reflects the collapse of the Tory brand more than anything else.
The Andrew Tate / gender stuff on social media is worrying so I won't say that it impossible for a far right wing party to make in-roads amongst the young, but as things stand Reform have the same age problem that the Tories have, and are also strongly associated with a failure (Brexit) based on nostalgia for a time that younger voters never knew.
We should take Reform seriously as a threat but they would still have to significantly reinvent themselves to have a chance of power I think.
Edit: Also, when I think about it they would have to get rid of Farage to remove the aftertaste of Brexit, which can't happen as it is his private company. Also I suspect that his geezer-ish act - which I concede is a successful brand image he has created - has more appeal to middle aged and elderly voters but the character he is playing is probably actually quite alien to Gen Z and younger Millenials. So Reform are unlikely to be a successful avatar for the far right.
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King Biscuit Time
Well-Known Member
I also think we are a little safer here (although I am absolutely not complacent), because Farage is a bit of a red faced golf club bore who won't really cut through with young people (who are not only just used to living in multicultural country, but increasing are that multicultural country. Even some of the less diverse cities and towns in England are far more diverse than in other countries).
Also the way Farage has everything set up (Reform is a company he owns), means he can't be deposed by a European style slick fashy in a suit.
But that's not to say where we are with the far right isn't totally shit and can't get worse.
Also the way Farage has everything set up (Reform is a company he owns), means he can't be deposed by a European style slick fashy in a suit.
But that's not to say where we are with the far right isn't totally shit and can't get worse.
Fez909
toilet expert
Agree with this.
What's the point of being someone you "could have a pint with" to people who increasingly don't drink.
source: Why Gen Zers are growing up sober curious
Silas Loom
Hated by both sides
VK turns out to be some sort of alcopop, and presumably sponsored this exercise, as it’s the only brand featured (okay, besides Pimms) and a pretty obscure one at that.
Bus Honeygun
This week the score draws are plentiful
Remember talking to a bloke I know who thought Corbyn was someone he liked politically and was 'a bloke he could have a pint with' but conceded that he would probably never cut through to enough of the country.
I didn't have the heart to tell him.
This is true and often under-estimated. Newcastle and Hull are actually significantly more cosmopolitan and diverse than e.g. Shanghai
Pleased to see fellow lager, ale, IPA and cider fans standing strong against the Tories!
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Frankly nobody should be surprised about Sherry drinkers.
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
Nothing about non-drinkers?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
I think Sherry is a very niche drink unlike beer for example.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
wrong'un
Elpenor
Dancing as fast as I can
Having flashbacks to hangovers at uni after drinking VKs
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Pretty sure there was some polling a few days ago that had them around 20% for a young age group, but it might possibly have been just amongst young men. Happily corrected if I’m wrong on this.You are also incorrect about youth support for Reform:
UK election polls by age 2024 | Statista
In 2024, the political party that 18 to 24 year-old's in Great Britain would be most likely to vote for in the next general election was the Labour Party, at 47 percent, while among those over 65, the Conservative Party was the most popular with 40 percent intending to vote for them.
Amongst the 18-24 age group, Reform are on 5% and Tories on 4%, so the combined right wing vote is 9%.
The 25-49 age group have 12% support for Reform and 10% for Tories. So that's 22% joint right wing support.
This is in contrast to 50-64 age group where Reform and Tories are in joint place at 22%, with 44% joint share, and the over 65s where Tory support is 33% and 25% for Reform, so 58% share for the right in total.
There's been some articles doing the rounds about youth support for Reform and it is true that younger voters are more likely to be Reform than Tory, but that reflects the collapse of the Tory brand more than anything else.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
Although back in the day Jerez, the sherry capital of Spain, was an anarchist stronghold.
Serge Forward
Just enjoyin' my coffee.
Tis true but that fascist twat Primo de Rivera was from there, so not all good.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Weekend polls holding strong for a Labour victory...
I would question that 'More in Common' poll, they have no track record, and have constantly come up with a lower lead than most, but even if Labour ends up with only a 15% lead, they will be happy enough with that.
I would question that 'More in Common' poll, they have no track record, and have constantly come up with a lower lead than most, but even if Labour ends up with only a 15% lead, they will be happy enough with that.
Voley
🐀
Electoral Calculus this morning. I think the Tories will lose but at this level? Surely not.
Prediction:
Con 61, Lab 470, Lib Dem 71, SNP 15, Reform 7, Labour majority of 290
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Electoral Calculus this morning. I think the Tories will lose but at this level? Surely not.
Prediction:
Con 61, Lab 470, Lib Dem 71, SNP 15, Reform 7, Labour majority of 290
I find it hard to believe, but they did make the best seat predications at the last GE, beating the MRP polls by both FocalData and YouGov.
Voley
🐀
Same here. They seem to have been at the end of the scale I'd like to believe this time round. I'm sceptical for that reason alone tbh. But still. That would be the Tories done and dusted for decades.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
The three latest polls all have the Labour lead down to just 15%, which could be Reform voters drifting back to the Tories to avoid giving Labour the 'super-majority' they have been banging on about. However, both 'JL Partners' and 'More in Common' have tended to show a lower lead over the last couple weeks than most polling companies.
The more interesting one is 'Savanta', which certainly shows a shift compared to their last two polls, the one covering 26–28 Jun had the lead at 17%, and the one covering 21–24 Jun had it at 21%, although in both of those polls they still had Reform on 14%, just 1% more than this latest one. <head explodes>
The more interesting one is 'Savanta', which certainly shows a shift compared to their last two polls, the one covering 26–28 Jun had the lead at 17%, and the one covering 21–24 Jun had it at 21%, although in both of those polls they still had Reform on 14%, just 1% more than this latest one. <head explodes>
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
Feedback from Tories quoted in articles does support the idea that the 'supermajority' scare tactic has worked. It's an odd one, the term isn't known here, yet it's clicked somehow.
I wonder if the switch back will be too late for the Tories. There will be some marginal seats where it could really count.
I wonder if the switch back will be too late for the Tories. There will be some marginal seats where it could really count.
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