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where the hell have the other 6% (or so) come from?!

(35% of 42.4% being 15%)
This table is a bit out of date now, but it looks like a mixture of non voters, new voters (turned 18 since 2019), and Labour or Lib Dem voters (remainers who have ‘come home’?)

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where the hell have the other 6% (or so) come from?!

(35% of 42.4% being 15%)
Their last FW (21-24/06) has them on 18% unadjusted, so I'm figuring they're seeing some non-tory 2019ers saying they intend to vote vermin?
 
This morning's Verian (formerly Kantar) numbers show the RefUKers still climbing (based on previous 14-17/06 FW) whilst others pollsters tentatively suggesting that's Farage's vehicle may have stalled mid-teens.

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I'm starting to think Frog Lord and maybe even a couple of his cohorts might make it, even the Tories themselves seem to have written themselves off. I can see them attracting a lot of protest votes that have nowhere else to go,
 
I reckon four of them will get in - Tice, Farage for certain, then maybe Anderson and the ex Southampton FC chairman Rupert Lowe who’s standing in Lowestoft I think.
 
Yeah, I think anyone betting on no Reform MP's is going to lose money. To my disgust.

Not a big number, wouldn't be surprised if it's just the Führage - but I wouldn't fall off my chair if it was 5.

30 would be properly iinto The Fuck? territory, and if that happened, I'd be l comfortable putting money I could ill afford to lose on Frog King, or perhaps another Reform character, being leader of the Tory party in time for the 2029 GE.
 
Yeah, I think anyone betting on no Reform MP's is going to lose money. To my disgust.

Not a big number, wouldn't be surprised if it's just the Führage - but I wouldn't fall off my chair if it was 5.

30 would be properly iinto The Fuck? territory, and if that happened, I'd be l comfortable putting money I could ill afford to lose on Frog King, or perhaps another Reform character, being leader of the Tory party in time for the 2029 GE.
With those sorts of numbers they’ll see themselves as replacements for the Tories and might even attract defectors. I don’t think they’ll take over the Tory party or want to - the brand might be too damaged.
 
Ipsos has a Tory drop and big Reform jump, but I don’t think it’s the super-duper random targeting methodology they used for their MRP. Still trust them more than most, though.

Why do you trust them more than most, when they only got one out of the last three GEs right?

* Survation basically got all three right.
 
Why do you trust them more than most, when they only got one out of the last three GEs right?

* Survation basically got all three right.

Fair question. Maybe there’s a bit of Ipsos Mori brand halo. I like Survation a lot, too. Both mainly phone pollsters, of course. My main bugbear is online panels recruited for an interest in politics, specifically YouGov. That’s always going to upweight extremists.
 
Fair question. Maybe there’s a bit of Ipsos Mori brand halo. I like Survation a lot, too. Both mainly phone pollsters, of course. My main bugbear is online panels recruited for an interest in politics, specifically YouGov. That’s always going to upweight extremists.

Yeah, brand names stick with people, yougov gets so much attention, so many people I know thinks they must the best, when their record is frankly shite. 🤷‍♂️
 
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