where the hell have the other 6% (or so) come from?!Wow; according to R&W, just 35% of 2019 vermin voters say they will this time!
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How fucked is that?
Their last FW (21-24/06) has them on 18% unadjusted, so I'm figuring they're seeing some non-tory 2019ers saying they intend to vote vermin?where the hell have the other 6% (or so) come from?!
(35% of 42.4% being 15%)
Looked like somewhere in NE London too possiblytbf, that looks like the Orpington constituency alone predicted to stay blue?
Was that done in Minecraft?This table is a bit out of date now, but it looks like a mixture of non voters, new voters (turned 18 since 2019), and Labour or Lib Dem voters (remainers who have ‘come home’?)
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With those sorts of numbers they’ll see themselves as replacements for the Tories and might even attract defectors. I don’t think they’ll take over the Tory party or want to - the brand might be too damaged.Yeah, I think anyone betting on no Reform MP's is going to lose money. To my disgust.
Not a big number, wouldn't be surprised if it's just the Führage - but I wouldn't fall off my chair if it was 5.
30 would be properly iinto The Fuck? territory, and if that happened, I'd be l comfortable putting money I could ill afford to lose on Frog King, or perhaps another Reform character, being leader of the Tory party in time for the 2029 GE.
Ipsos has a Tory drop and big Reform jump, but I don’t think it’s the super-duper random targeting methodology they used for their MRP. Still trust them more than most, though.
Why do you trust them more than most, when they only got one out of the last three GEs right?
* Survation basically got all three right.
I think “collapsing” is overdoing it a bit. Maybe “losing a few points from Daily Mail readers and the more orthodox conservative switchers who were dabbling with a Reform vote”It looks to me like the ReformUK vote is collapsing after Nigel Farage's remarks about Ukraine and NATO.View attachment 430766
"Collapsing" seems to be a bit strong; the trend looks more like plateauing?It looks to me like the ReformUK vote is collapsing after Nigel Farage's remarks about Ukraine and NATO.View attachment 430766
Fair question. Maybe there’s a bit of Ipsos Mori brand halo. I like Survation a lot, too. Both mainly phone pollsters, of course. My main bugbear is online panels recruited for an interest in politics, specifically YouGov. That’s always going to upweight extremists.
So close to being beaten into 4th place by the SNP there! That really would be hilarious.
True, but apples and oranges; that was a single-issue dominated election based on very high levels of mis-information voting.Next lowest is Johnson in 2019 though!
And the FT's Burn-Murdoch takes up the steep gradient theme to explain the variation in vermin seat number forecastsInteresting graph from MiC pollster guy, showing the electorally 'deadly' territory that the vermin inhabit:
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