Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
where the hell have the other 6% (or so) come from?!Wow; according to R&W, just 35% of 2019 vermin voters say they will this time!
View attachment 430516
How fucked is that?
(35% of 42.4% being 15%)
strung out
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This table is a bit out of date now, but it looks like a mixture of non voters, new voters (turned 18 since 2019), and Labour or Lib Dem voters (remainers who have ‘come home’?)
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Their last FW (21-24/06) has them on 18% unadjusted, so I'm figuring they're seeing some non-tory 2019ers saying they intend to vote vermin?
Elpenor
a clown’s heart and a mandolin
Looked like somewhere in NE London too possibly
Would be great to see a vermin wipeout in London
Serge Forward
Just enjoyin' my coffee.
Was that done in Minecraft?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Interesting graph from MiC pollster guy, showing the electorally 'deadly' territory that the vermin inhabit:
Silas Loom
Man with glasses
Ipsos has a Tory drop and big Reform jump, but I don’t think it’s the super-duper random targeting methodology they used for their MRP. Still trust them more than most, though.
strung out
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I reckon four of them will get in - Tice, Farage for certain, then maybe Anderson and the ex Southampton FC chairman Rupert Lowe who’s standing in Lowestoft I think.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Yeah, I think anyone betting on no Reform MP's is going to lose money. To my disgust.
Not a big number, wouldn't be surprised if it's just the Führage - but I wouldn't fall off my chair if it was 5.
30 would be properly iinto The Fuck? territory, and if that happened, I'd be l comfortable putting money I could ill afford to lose on Frog King, or perhaps another Reform character, being leader of the Tory party in time for the 2029 GE.
Not a big number, wouldn't be surprised if it's just the Führage - but I wouldn't fall off my chair if it was 5.
30 would be properly iinto The Fuck? territory, and if that happened, I'd be l comfortable putting money I could ill afford to lose on Frog King, or perhaps another Reform character, being leader of the Tory party in time for the 2029 GE.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
With those sorts of numbers they’ll see themselves as replacements for the Tories and might even attract defectors. I don’t think they’ll take over the Tory party or want to - the brand might be too damaged.
Silas Loom
Man with glasses
I thought there had been a few like that recently.
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
Why do you trust them more than most, when they only got one out of the last three GEs right?
* Survation basically got all three right.
It looks to me like the ReformUK vote is collapsing after Nigel Farage's remarks about Ukraine and NATO.
Silas Loom
Man with glasses
Fair question. Maybe there’s a bit of Ipsos Mori brand halo. I like Survation a lot, too. Both mainly phone pollsters, of course. My main bugbear is online panels recruited for an interest in politics, specifically YouGov. That’s always going to upweight extremists.
Jeremiah18.17
Well-Known Member
I think “collapsing” is overdoing it a bit. Maybe “losing a few points from Daily Mail readers and the more orthodox conservative switchers who were dabbling with a Reform vote”
Don’t see his comments affecting his core 10-12%
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
Yeah, brand names stick with people, yougov gets so much attention, so many people I know thinks they must the best, when their record is frankly shite.
Fez909
toilet expert
So close to being beaten into 4th place by the SNP there! That really would be hilarious.
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
Findoutnow, a new polling company with no track record, that constantly puts the Tories on a lower percentage than other polling companies.
<pinch of salt>
Silas Loom
Man with glasses
Next lowest is Johnson in 2019 though!
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
True, but apples and oranges; that was a single-issue dominated election based on very high levels of mis-information voting.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
And the FT's Burn-Murdoch takes up the steep gradient theme to explain the variation in vermin seat number forecasts
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