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Political polling

redsquirrel said:
It doesn't really. You have Reform on 21% and the LDs on 14% so 4% margin of error (which is low for 220 respondents) would mean there is no statistical significance difference between the two.
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OK, fair enough; I suppose, over the next week or so, we'll see if they've picked up on a trend or not.
 
During an election campaign, is the movement not generally supposed to be in favour of the incumbents, not dramatically moving away from them? 😂
 
If we do get a result a bit like the above, or with even fewer Tories, one interesting thing about the new Parliament will be the sheer scale of new MPs. Must be likely that 350-400 of them will be new? With so many MPs not knowing what the fuck they are doing with all the stupid arcane Parliamentary procedures etc and relatively few old timers it will be an interesting dynamic.
 
Silas Loom said:
Absolutely, although this does show what a completely ridiculous and opportunistic and incoherent mob the Green party is.
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fptp forces many tendencies under one tent. I'm tempted to vote green cos the local bod seems nice and they should be encouraged for having stood a candidate in every seat in E&W. That shows a serious attempt to gauge where support is and isn't.
Its her or giant cerne abbas dick n balls either way for me.
 
Wilf said:
I'm already imagining the gift and scams those Reflux MPs would get up to in the Commons.
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I’d place bets on at least one byelection within six months once candidates are put under a bit of scrutiny and assorted past crank/racist/paedo activity gets exposed. Plus a few defections to other crank right wing parties once egos start bouncing off each other.
 
Presume the solitary Labour loss is Corbyn? Or maybe Bristol Central to the Greens?

And where the fuck are the tories gaining a seat, or is that one where someone has defected?
 
Wilf said:
I'm ignorant of the reliability and methodology issues, but purely on instinct I'd go with that. Possibly with Reflux a point or so less.
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Yeah, my (totally unscientific) gut feeling is also that this looks like a more realistic profile of vote shares, but I'm pretty sure that says more about me than the psephology. I suppose, like many of a certain age, we're not attuned to seeing the vermin fail electorally so dramatically and maybe there's a fair dose of personal expectation management in that as well; not wanting to be too disappointed when they don't implode completely.
 
eatmorecheese said:
I can't believe it. I would cry if that happened. It would be for my Dad, but I can hear him say, "Never gonna happen" in my head :)
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Similar for me regarding my family home town of Faversham, not been Lab since 1970 and seemingly no chance whatsoever since changing the boundary and lumping it in with geriatric vermin mid-Kent.
 
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