Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Political polling

‘Middle England’ tends not to be the racist and fuck the poor caricature of the modern Tory party. They’re BBC, CofE, National Trust, RSPB, Attenborough, nice walks in the country types. Stuff like sewage in the rivers plays very poorly with them. The Green Party does have attractions for them, safe and middle-class enough, and I suspect the local campaign here focuses on local maters and the ‘green and pleasant land’ side of things. Here in Bristol Central we probably get a bit more about Gaza and climate change.

Absolutely, although this does show what a completely ridiculous and opportunistic and incoherent mob the Green party is.
 
‘Middle England’ tends not to be the racist and fuck the poor caricature of the modern Tory party. They’re BBC, CofE, National Trust, RSPB, Attenborough, nice walks in the country types. Stuff like sewage in the rivers plays very poorly with them. The Green Party does have attractions for them, safe and middle-class enough, and I suspect the local campaign here focuses on local maters and the ‘green and pleasant land’ side of things. Here in Bristol Central we probably get a bit more about Gaza and climate change.

I'm down in deepest Kent and the Green Party here do not play safe in that way - and i suspect there isn't a Green Party in the land that does.
 
And the Labour Party

I don't agree, in GEs Labour tend to campaign on national issues, the LDs have tended to go more local, hence how they have built a base in certain areas.

The Greens are now doing the same, I was in the room at their conference last year, when the plan to target four seats was launched, and how campaigns would vary between the urban and more rural seats, very much based on the LD model.
 
‘Middle England’ tends not to be the racist and fuck the poor caricature of the modern Tory party. They’re BBC, CofE, National Trust, RSPB, Attenborough, nice walks in the country types. Stuff like sewage in the rivers plays very poorly with them. The Green Party does have attractions for them, safe and middle-class enough, and I suspect the local campaign here focuses on local maters and the ‘green and pleasant land’ side of things. Here in Bristol Central we probably get a bit more about Gaza and climate change.
Up here (North Herefordshire - which they may well take), campaigning for a cleaner Wye has certainly got them some traction.
 
"Strong second"; generally taken to mean, clearly second with a gap to third. So, basically correct.
When you out error bars on those plots? I doubt it. It's not polls of 18-24 year old but data from cross breaks so the error is going to be significant. I'd say it shows Labour easily out in front and then a mishmash for the other four.

EDIT: Just checked and for the latest poll they had 253 (unweighted) respondent for this age group. Actually that includes the Don't Knows so for the data in the plot the sample size is down to 220.
 
Last edited:
When you out error bars on those plots? I doubt it. It's not polls of 18-24 year old but data from cross breaks so the error is going to be significant. I'd say it shows Labour easily out in front and then a mishmash for the other four.

EDIT: Just checked and for the latest poll they had 253 (unweighted) respondent for this age group. Actually that includes the Don't Knows so for the data in the plot the sample size is down to 220.
Agree it would need more polling to corroborate, but for that pollster’s cross-break data, that latest poll shows Ref as a clear second and the first second place to go > 20%. Fair to call that 1 showing in second as “strong”.
 
It doesn't really. You have Reform on 21% and the LDs on 14% so 4% margin of error (which is low for 220 respondents) would mean there is no statistical significance difference between the two.
 
Back
Top Bottom