Political polling

[Silas Loom]

‘Middle England’ tends not to be the racist and fuck the poor caricature of the modern Tory party. They’re BBC, CofE, National Trust, RSPB, Attenborough, nice walks in the country types. Stuff like sewage in the rivers plays very poorly with them. The Green Party does have attractions for them, safe and middle-class enough, and I suspect the local campaign here focuses on local maters and the ‘green and pleasant land’ side of things. Here in Bristol Central we probably get a bit more about Gaza and climate change.

Absolutely, although this does show what a completely ridiculous and opportunistic and incoherent mob the Green party is.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Absolutely, although this does show what a completely ridiculous and opportunistic and incoherent mob the Green party is.

They are following in the steps of the LDs.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

They are following in the steps of the LDs.

And the Labour Party

 

[Jennaonthebeach]

‘Middle England’ tends not to be the racist and fuck the poor caricature of the modern Tory party. They’re BBC, CofE, National Trust, RSPB, Attenborough, nice walks in the country types. Stuff like sewage in the rivers plays very poorly with them. The Green Party does have attractions for them, safe and middle-class enough, and I suspect the local campaign here focuses on local maters and the ‘green and pleasant land’ side of things. Here in Bristol Central we probably get a bit more about Gaza and climate change.

I'm down in deepest Kent and the Green Party here do not play safe in that way - and i suspect there isn't a Green Party in the land that does.

 

[cupid_stunt]

And the Labour Party

I don't agree, in GEs Labour tend to campaign on national issues, the LDs have tended to go more local, hence how they have built a base in certain areas.

The Greens are now doing the same, I was in the room at their conference last year, when the plan to target four seats was launched, and how campaigns would vary between the urban and more rural seats, very much based on the LD model.

 

[brogdale]

In a joyless election campaign, it's good to get some snippet of uplifting news from the pollsters...

 

[cupid_stunt]

In a joyless election campaign, it's good to get some snippet of uplifting news from the pollsters...

View attachment 430119

That's featured on the front page of the Daily Star today - see this post.

 

[brogdale]

That's featured on the front page of the Daily Star today - see this post.

My bad; I think I'm a bit disorientated by the new sub-forum

 

[cupid_stunt]

My bad; I think I'm a bit disorientated by the new sub-forum

No problem, my post was on the election bandwidthz thread, because it's a funny front page, the poll itself deserves being on this one too

 

[Dogsauce]

Who the fuck has a problem with Binface? Other than the landlord of the Crown and Treaty?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Who the fuck has a problem with Binface? Other than the landlord of the Crown and Treaty?

People with fuck all sense of humor.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I'm not 100% sure this one meets all the standards for polling, but

 

[ska invita]

not replicated by all pollsters

 

[Hotel Chocolate]

Strong second? Don't look like it, they're way behind Labour.

 

[brogdale]

Strong second? Don't look like it, they're way behind Labour.

"Strong second"; generally taken to mean, clearly second with a gap to third. So, basically correct.

 

[brogdale]

On which...vermin clearly third and falling in Wales; well done Wales.

 

[andysays]

View attachment 430151

not replicated by all pollsters

That's in one constituency, isn't it?

Anyone know where Redfield and Wilton is?

 

[Hotel Chocolate]

Aren't they the polling company?

 

[andysays]

Aren't they the polling company?

Yeah, you're right.

My mistake

 

[tim]

They are following in the steps of the LDs.

And the Workers' Party of great Britain.

 

[ska invita]

On which...vermin clearly third and falling in Wales; well done Wales.

Sorry to pick you up but thats a "well done for voting Reform"

 

[Bingoman]

Sounds like the Tories will make as the Official opposition

 

[brogdale]

Sorry to pick you up but thats a "well done for voting Reform"

Fair point, but looked at 'glass half full' stylee, 85% non-vermin is quite well done, tbh.

 

[brogdale]

Sounds like the Tories will make as the Official opposition

An interesting observation:

 

[Funky_monks]

‘Middle England’ tends not to be the racist and fuck the poor caricature of the modern Tory party. They’re BBC, CofE, National Trust, RSPB, Attenborough, nice walks in the country types. Stuff like sewage in the rivers plays very poorly with them. The Green Party does have attractions for them, safe and middle-class enough, and I suspect the local campaign here focuses on local maters and the ‘green and pleasant land’ side of things. Here in Bristol Central we probably get a bit more about Gaza and climate change.

Up here (North Herefordshire - which they may well take), campaigning for a cleaner Wye has certainly got them some traction.

 

[redsquirrel]

"Strong second"; generally taken to mean, clearly second with a gap to third. So, basically correct.

When you out error bars on those plots? I doubt it. It's not polls of 18-24 year old but data from cross breaks so the error is going to be significant. I'd say it shows Labour easily out in front and then a mishmash for the other four.

EDIT: Just checked and for the latest poll they had 253 (unweighted) respondent for this age group. Actually that includes the Don't Knows so for the data in the plot the sample size is down to 220.

 

[kabbes]

Fair point, but looked at 'glass half full' stylee, 85% non-vermin is quite well done, tbh.

68% non-Tory/Reform doesn’t feel like a massive step forward for Wales.

 

[brogdale]

68% non-Tory/Reform doesn’t feel like a massive step forward for Wales.

Yeah, but compared with 58% in 2019.

E2a: Vermin + Brex in 2019

 

[brogdale]

When you out error bars on those plots? I doubt it. It's not polls of 18-24 year old but data from cross breaks so the error is going to be significant. I'd say it shows Labour easily out in front and then a mishmash for the other four.

EDIT: Just checked and for the latest poll they had 253 (unweighted) respondent for this age group. Actually that includes the Don't Knows so for the data in the plot the sample size is down to 220.

Agree it would need more polling to corroborate, but for that pollster’s cross-break data, that latest poll shows Ref as a clear second and the first second place to go > 20%. Fair to call that 1 showing in second as “strong”.

 

[redsquirrel]

It doesn't really. You have Reform on 21% and the LDs on 14% so 4% margin of error (which is low for 220 respondents) would mean there is no statistical significance difference between the two.