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Political polling

Balbi said:
Ok so this poll is done by right wing dipshit Matt Goodwin, for GB News. Adjust expectations accordingly.
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the jug eared book eating prick, I despise him not simply for being the right wing shithead he is but for clearly having done the heel turn out of a desire for money and profile. A cunt who doesn't believe his own shit but he's gonna spray it up the walls anyway.
 
Thing is, the 3 constituency level (usual sample size caveats) polls so far, have all shown Lab equalling or over-performing the MRPs and the vermin underperforming suggesting that the more 'aggressive' MRPs may be on to something?
 
brogdale said:
Thing is, the 3 constituency level (usual sample size caveats) polls so far, have all shown Lab equalling or over-performing the MRPs and the vermin underperforming suggesting that the more 'aggressive' MRPs may be on to something?
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They all agree that the tories are fucked. The only argument is how much they are fucked.
 
So is this now the point where the Tory vote has gone to reform in sufficient numbers that Reform candidates will be elected as MP's, rather than the previous situation of Reform taking enough votes off the Tories to prevent Tory MP's being elected, but not enough to get Reform candidates elected?

I've long thought that Führage would will in Clapton, but that that would be it for them - are we now thinking that they might get another 5/10/20 seats where the previous Tory vote goes to them in sufficient numbers?

I know Godwin is saying that, but do we believe it?
 
Voley said:
Ah that right cheered me up, thanks cupid_stunt :D

Highly unlikely, I'd say, and I do wonder if The Telegraph are trying to frighten their disillusioned readership into voting loyally.

But still. Lol. :D
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It's a fine balance though. Could galvanise the faithful, could mean they all sit at home saying "what's the fucking point, we're getting hammered anyway".
 
How can the polls be so variable? I know they can't get it exactly right, but at least you would imagine they'd all be similar to each other?

Take these two opinion polls:
1718918120143.png
and these two:
1718949653953.png
 
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still think - hope - thats its a repeat of "cleggmania" and the excited surge of gammony shite will fall back come polling day.
 
Hotel Chocolate said:
How can the polls be so variable? I know they can't get it exactly right but at least you would imagine there'd all be similar to each other?
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Dunno really.

Can depend who the sample is - I don't know how polling companies try and make their polls representative across the whole population. Presume for example that any poll carried out among the readers of a particular newspaper don't qualify.

And I think there's still quite a lot of 'not really sure' even if that doesn't register in polls as 'don't know' - personally, I'm still not entirely sure if I will bother to vote or if so who for.

It also depends whether you ask a question who you'd vote for (in general), or who you intend to vote for in your constituency (and then there's who they actually will vote for on the day) - in the latter, some people will vote tactically / reluctantly on the day to get their 'least worst' credible option / to 'stop the other lot getting in', but will express a preference in general, knowing that party is unlikely to win in their constituency.

And in opinion polls, there's a tendency for people to say they will vote for party A, when they usually support party B but aren't happy with what they are up to at the moment - but when it comes to a real vote, they are less likely to vote for party A.
 
Kaka Tim said:
would be some achivement by starmer to get the labour vote below 40% when up against the dumpster fire on stilts that is the current tory government.
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Both Tories and Labour will struggle to get the vote out this election, which makes me think other more motivated parties (Reform, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens, WPB) could end up with higher vote shares than polls are showing.
 
Puddy_Tat said:
Dunno really.

Can depend who the sample is - I don't know how polling companies try and make their polls representative across the whole population. Presume for example that any poll carried out among the readers of a particular newspaper don't qualify.

And I think there's still quite a lot of 'not really sure' even if that doesn't register in polls as 'don't know' - personally, I'm still not entirely sure if I will bother to vote or if so who for.

It also depends whether you ask a question who you'd vote for (in general), or who you intend to vote for in your constituency (and then there's who they actually will vote for on the day) - in the latter, some people will vote tactically / reluctantly on the day to get their 'least worst' credible option / to 'stop the other lot getting in', but will express a preference in general, knowing that party is unlikely to win in their constituency.

And in opinion polls, there's a tendency for people to say they will vote for party A, when they usually support party B but aren't happy with what they are up to at the moment - but when it comes to a real vote, they are less likely to vote for party A.
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I think the best protest vote these days is vote Green. Spoiling or worse not even bothering to vote achieves nothing I feel, nobody notices you, the opposition are glad you didn't vote.
 
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Hotel Chocolate said:
How can the polls be so variable? I know they can't get it exactly right but at least you would imagine there'd all be similar to each other?
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They’re using different methodologies, with the biggest difference being how they allocate ‘don’t knows’.

Those showing the smallest Tory vote shares are generally not re-weighting the polls to take account of don’t knows. Those with larger Tory vote shares are either asking a squeeze question (e.g. ‘if you had to choose now, who are you leaning towards), or re-weight based on things like previous voting behaviour.

The underlying data is often fairly similar, but it’s the weighting (or not) that provides the big difference, especially when the pollsters try to take account of things like the fact that Reform voters are highly engaged in online polling, so tend to be overrepresented in poll samples.
 
Hotel Chocolate said:
I think the best protest vote these days is vote Green. Spoiling or worse not even bothering to vote achieves nothing I feel, nobody notices you, the opposition are glad you didn't vote.
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dunno really.

so far, i've only done spoiled paper for the pointless police commissioner thing.

opinion is divided about a 'protest' vote for a fringe party. arguably a vote for the green party might make mainstream parties take more notice of environmental issues, a vote for a far-right party arguably makes mainstream parties try to offer something (either policy or words) to try and satisfy the racists.

or you can argue that a vote for a fringe party (and in a few constituencies that could be labour or tory) is as effective as not voting at all.

strung out said:
Those showing the smallest Tory vote shares are generally not re-weighting the polls to take account of don’t knows. Those with larger Tory vote shares are either asking a squeeze question (e.g. ‘if you had to choose now, who are you leaning towards), or re-weight based on things like previous voting behaviour.
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there has in some past elections been a 'shy tory' element in under-reporting tory vote. hard to say whether that's likely to be a thing now, with the tories being relatively unpopular. and is the mindset where you won't say who you are going to vote for as a matter of principle more likely to coincide with the mindset that votes tory / right wing?
 
Farage would be horrified if he ended up leader of the opposition (he won't be, of course). He'd have to actually turn up to Parliament.
 
Wilf said:
Farage would be horrified if he ended up leader of the opposition (he won't be, of course). He'd have to actually turn up to Parliament.
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(Job to know whether it's Remainers or Leavers that are more eager to punish the Tories this time round)
 
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