Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Louis MacNeice
Autumn Journalist
As a Pavilion resident I think that will be much closer. I'll be voting for a Green win.
Cheers - Louis MacNeice
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
Caveat: it's a newly drawn constituency with almost no immediate predecessor so some statistics are rather slapdash about three voting intentions.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
To go along with my previous response: when the seat is brand new and taken from 5 others, the voting intention polling can be a touch odd
Bingoman
Well-Known Member
Ah right didn't know about Brighton Pavilion i thought it would of been a safe Green Seat?
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
The Greens were roundly chased out of Brighton Council having run it into the ground, which might have fed through into the stats
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Possibly not; either end might be roughly equally wrong if the true lead turns out to be around 21.
maomao
普費斯
Focal data is a terrible name for a polling company. Everyone's just going to call them 'fuck-all data' aren't they.
maomao
普費斯
Hanged parliament would be funnier.
Elpenor
Dancing as fast as I can
Faecal matter would be more apt
Funky_monks
Neo-Rustic
I was going to vote for her (Ellie Chowns - North Herefordshire) anyway, but I'm quite glad I can vote for neither the Tories or Labour and the vote won't be wasted (perpetuating the current system, hampering the revolution etc etc aside).
skyscraper101
0891 50 50 50
Get the beers in.
nz.news.yahoo.com
Tories On Course For Wipeout As New Opinion Polls Predict Huge Labour Majorities
Even the prime minister's seat could be at risk as the party braces for catastrophe.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Get the beers in.
Tories On Course For Wipeout As New Opinion Polls Predict Huge Labour Majorities
Even the prime minister's seat could be at risk as the party braces for catastrophe.
More in Common's MRP polls are always coming up with a lower number of Labour seats, compared to all the others.
Bingoman
Well-Known Member
I wonder what the YouGov poll will say?
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
There's one in the list above, which gives Labour 422 seats, I guess it'll be interesting to see what the one being launched by Sky at 5pm today says, but I am not convinced by these MRP polls.
IIRC yougov first used one in the 2019 GE, with a massive sample of over 100k, as did another company, and the results were far from impressive, electoral calculus got a lot closer without even carrying out a MRP poll.
Even in national poll share, yougov was totally useless in 2015 & 2017, whilst slightly better in 2019, they still got showed up by the like of suravation, opiinium, and ipsos mori.
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burtabraham
Well-Known Member
Get the beers in.
Tories On Course For Wipeout As New Opinion Polls Predict Huge Labour Majorities
Even the prime minister's seat could be at risk as the party braces for catastrophe.
I’ll only be satisfied if it’s under 100 seats.
skyscraper101
0891 50 50 50
Oh go on then
Sunak to lose seat in Tory wipeout, major poll predicts
Exclusive survey for The Telegraph also shows party on track to slump to 53 seats with around three-quarters of the Cabinet voted out
www.telegraph.co.uk
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
YouGov first did an MRP election model in 2017 and were the only polling company to predict a hung parliament in their seat projections: Opinion polling for the 2017 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia
How YouGov’s election model compares with the final result | YouGov
With 631 of Great Britain’s 632 constituencies now called, YouGov looks at how our model’s estimates holds up against the declared seats
yougov.co.uk
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
YouGov first did an MRP election model in 2017 and were the only polling company to predict a hung parliament in their seat projections: Opinion polling for the 2017 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia
How YouGov’s election model compares with the final result | YouGov
With 631 of Great Britain’s 632 constituencies now called, YouGov looks at how our model’s estimates holds up against the declared seats
Oh, I missed that one, cheers.
Strange they came up with a hung parliament, considering their national poll share was well out at 7%.
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Different methodologies I think, with the MRP conducted separately/independent of their normal polling.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Just announced, a fair bit worst for the Tories than the last one, Labour up from 422 to 425 seats, LDs up from 48 to 67, and Tories down from 140 to 108.
Reform up from 0 to 5, SNP up from 17 to 20, Greens unchanged at 2.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
The yougov prediction is that Farage will get 45%, against the Tories on 25%. 
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Here's the Sky round-up, some interesting graphs and video here.
news.sky.com
Labour on course for 200-seat majority and Tories to have fewest MPs ever, new poll shows
The latest YouGov MRP for Sky News projects Labour would have the second largest majority since the Second World War while the Tories will slump to their lowest level of MPs.
I'm thinking the polls are likely overestimating the Labour vote. People who say they are likely to vote Labour may very well just not on election day due to
1) a lack of enthusiasm for Starmer/Labour making Labour's vote soft
2) a reduced and demoralised activist base failing to get the vote out
3) that Starmer/Labour are bad at campaigning failing + playing it safe and thus failing to win over uncertain voters
4) complacency with respect to getting the Tories out.
There are other factors reducing the Labour vote of course such as disgust over Gaza, but that should already be reflected in the polls.
The complacency factor could be a real killer. People tell pollsters that they are likely to vote Labour and mean it, but come the day they might just not.
In my head when I see polls I subtract 5 points from Labour.
However, these factors are most likely to be in play in safe seats. And whereas the Labour vote maybe overestimated that vote will likely be more "efficient" than predicted. The Tories are still absolutely stuffed.
1) a lack of enthusiasm for Starmer/Labour making Labour's vote soft
2) a reduced and demoralised activist base failing to get the vote out
3) that Starmer/Labour are bad at campaigning failing + playing it safe and thus failing to win over uncertain voters
4) complacency with respect to getting the Tories out.
There are other factors reducing the Labour vote of course such as disgust over Gaza, but that should already be reflected in the polls.
The complacency factor could be a real killer. People tell pollsters that they are likely to vote Labour and mean it, but come the day they might just not.
In my head when I see polls I subtract 5 points from Labour.
However, these factors are most likely to be in play in safe seats. And whereas the Labour vote maybe overestimated that vote will likely be more "efficient" than predicted. The Tories are still absolutely stuffed.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Labour have been polling 15-20% ahead of the tories for about a year now - and the bi-elections and local election results are in line with the polling. There is nothing to suggest that labours vote share is being overstated. Sure - people are genrally "meh" about starmer but that is vastly negated by the overwhelming "please just fuck off and keep fucking off" that something like 75% of voters feel about the tories. Even their base are clearly voting out of loyalty and/or inbuilt fear of the evil of the labour party rather than any positive feelings about the tories. Not sure about complacency - agasint that their is the motivation of hurting the tories and ever better organsied tactical voting.
There are over a dozen polling companies doing several polls a week using a wide range of methodology and all of them are predicting a tory meltdown - its just a question of weather its as bad as 1997 or even worse - sorry - L meant even better.
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