Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
They definitely got more accurate as they went along.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
They had to. The spectre of 1992 haunted the broadcasters for years.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Not convinced - I think it's a swing away from the two party system when the electorate are comfortable that the one of the two parties they can live with is going to give the one they really don't like an absolute hammering.
Doesn't roll off the tongue in the same way, but...
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
We probably need to massively and disingenuously promote Fuhrage's disgusting party at every opportunity - I wonder if I could convince my Tory family members living in Mogg's re-defined constituency ...
Disagree - the move away from a 2 party system is because the neoliberal centre which both major parties represent is not truly popular with most people either on the left or right.
The decline actually started in the late New Labour years, with left leaning voters peeling off them towards Lib Dems (against tuition fees and Iraq war), the SNP and the Greens. And then UKIP from the right.
2005 was the first election since, most likely, the one where Labour overtook the Liberals, that the two main parties got less than 70% vote share combined. In 2010 and 2015 there was also a historically low vote share for the 2 big parties.
Then in 2017 the vote share for the 2 main parties increased suddenly to 82.3%, and 75.7% in 2019.
What happened in those two years was that in those elections both parties stood for something. The Tories stood for Brexit and that kind of ideological mission and patriotism, Labour stood for socialism. Even in 2019, more people voted for Labour than in any year since 2001.
The brief period of Corbynism delayed the drift away from Labour to the left. If you remember, there was a large anti-austerity movement which Labour was notably absent from in the early 2010s. Stuff like Left Unity and the People's Assembly were likely close to forming a credible left alternative to Labour, one reason IMO why Corbyn was allowed to stand for leadership in 2017, to try and prove Labour was still a broad church. Brexit allowed Tories to temporarily fuse the neoliberal centre with the patriotic hard right.
Now both those conditions are gone, and we have a return to the decline of the 2 party system.
Most likely by 2029 election disillusionment with Labour will lead to the emergence of a credible left alternative, whether the Greens or something new.
I predict the 2029 election or perhaps the 2034 election will have a similar scenario to France, where the centre has collapsed and you have a competition between Reform and (insert left wing party here).
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Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
I wouldn't see 'two party system' as meaning overwhelming support for those two parties though. More that it ensures only they have a chance of power - it looks to be functioning well enough on that front to me.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Would like to do a longer reply, but on phone. I'm not sure it's 'just" about the neo liberal core. It is that, but there's also the profound sense politics has gone elsewhere, abandoning communities. All of this has certainly opened the way for Reflux and populism of the right though ironically, will see the election of the ultimate neoliberal void in a couple of weeks. It certainly opens the way for something on the left, but I struggle to see from where. The Corbyn mass membership is defeated and scattered, and the anti cuts movement isn't much better. It will also be a massive psychological leap for the unions to abandon Labour and the experiences of Enough is Enough weren't good.
Largely agree with everything you said, but I think sometimes a bit of optimism can be self-fulfilling. Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will and all that.
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
This is the latest two opinion polls that have come out today: one has Reform one point of the head of the Tories the other one has them 9 points behind - what the hell's going on?
How can the polls be so variable? I know they can't get it exactly right, but at least you would imagine they'd all be similar to each other?
Take these two opinion polls:
and these two:
How can the polls be so variable? I know they can't get it exactly right, but at least you would imagine they'd all be similar to each other?
Take these two opinion polls:
and these two:
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moochedit
I'm not feeding seagulls
Different methods of dealing with "don't knows" by the polling companies is the main reason i've seen.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Methodological differences between’no adjustment’ polling and‘squeeze question’ polling.
Political polling
I am keeping my eye on Survation, the only company that got it basically bang on in all three of the last GEs, they have the Labour lead up to 21% now.
www.urban75.net
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
That's a hell a lot of people switching from Conservative to Green.
moochedit
I'm not feeding seagulls
NIMBY issues locally?
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
That's not the only one
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Waveney Valley Constituency Voting Intention:<br><br>GRN: 37% (+28)<br>CON: 24% (-38)<br>LAB: 17% (-2)<br>RFM: 16% (New)<br>LDM: 7% (-2)<br><br>Via <a href="x.com">@wethinkpolling</a>, 6-14 Jun.<br>Changes w/ GE2019 Notional.</p>— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) <a href="">June 21, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Waveney Valley Constituency Voting Intention:<br><br>GRN: 37% (+28)<br>CON: 24% (-38)<br>LAB: 17% (-2)<br>RFM: 16% (New)<br>LDM: 7% (-2)<br><br>Via <a href="x.com">@wethinkpolling</a>, 6-14 Jun.<br>Changes w/ GE2019 Notional.</p>— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) <a href="">June 21, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
The rivers issue is live in both constituency - the Teme, the Clun, the Lugg, and the Wye are all rivers every kid in those areas would have swum in 10 years ago - including mine - now you'd only go in the Wye and Lugg if you thought licking pub toilets wasn't a risky enough activity for you.
Wow, looks like Greens are set to get all 4 of their target seats then?
What we have here is a failure of imagination, charactistic of New Labour.
Silas Loom
Advanced. Forthright. Signifficant.
Alastair Campbell thinks it's all bollocks apparently....
Obviously he’s trying to avoid complacency and increase turnout but maybe he’d have been better off with a double bluff.
Tbf, I don't really believe them either. But unlike Campbell, I don't have to try and convince the vote to get out.
Thought he’d be more concerned about the Lib Dem’s nowadays
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
‘Middle England’ tends not to be the racist and fuck the poor caricature of the modern Tory party. They’re BBC, CofE, National Trust, RSPB, Attenborough, nice walks in the country types. Stuff like sewage in the rivers plays very poorly with them. The Green Party does have attractions for them, safe and middle-class enough, and I suspect the local campaign here focuses on local maters and the ‘green and pleasant land’ side of things. Here in Bristol Central we probably get a bit more about Gaza and climate change.
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
What we have here is a cunt, characteristic of New Labour.
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