Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Political polling

2 weeks to go and it's beginning to look like a swing away from the 2 party system...

View attachment 429887
source

Not convinced - I think it's a swing away from the two party system when the electorate are comfortable that the one of the two parties they can live with is going to give the one they really don't like an absolute hammering.

Doesn't roll off the tongue in the same way, but...
 
We probably need to massively and disingenuously promote Fuhrage's disgusting party at every opportunity - I wonder if I could convince my Tory family members living in Mogg's re-defined constituency ...
 
Not convinced - I think it's a swing away from the two party system when the electorate are comfortable that the one of the two parties they can live with is going to give the one they really don't like an absolute hammering.

Doesn't roll off the tongue in the same way, but...
Disagree - the move away from a 2 party system is because the neoliberal centre which both major parties represent is not truly popular with most people either on the left or right.

The decline actually started in the late New Labour years, with left leaning voters peeling off them towards Lib Dems (against tuition fees and Iraq war), the SNP and the Greens. And then UKIP from the right.

2005 was the first election since, most likely, the one where Labour overtook the Liberals, that the two main parties got less than 70% vote share combined. In 2010 and 2015 there was also a historically low vote share for the 2 big parties.

Then in 2017 the vote share for the 2 main parties increased suddenly to 82.3%, and 75.7% in 2019.

What happened in those two years was that in those elections both parties stood for something. The Tories stood for Brexit and that kind of ideological mission and patriotism, Labour stood for socialism. Even in 2019, more people voted for Labour than in any year since 2001.

The brief period of Corbynism delayed the drift away from Labour to the left. If you remember, there was a large anti-austerity movement which Labour was notably absent from in the early 2010s. Stuff like Left Unity and the People's Assembly were likely close to forming a credible left alternative to Labour, one reason IMO why Corbyn was allowed to stand for leadership in 2017, to try and prove Labour was still a broad church. Brexit allowed Tories to temporarily fuse the neoliberal centre with the patriotic hard right.

Now both those conditions are gone, and we have a return to the decline of the 2 party system.

Most likely by 2029 election disillusionment with Labour will lead to the emergence of a credible left alternative, whether the Greens or something new.

I predict the 2029 election or perhaps the 2034 election will have a similar scenario to France, where the centre has collapsed and you have a competition between Reform and (insert left wing party here).
 
Last edited:
Disagree - the move away from a 2 party system is because the neoliberal centre which both major parties represent is not truly popular with most people either on the left or right.

The decline actually started in the late New Labour years, with left leaning voters peeling off them towards Lib Dems (against tuition fees and Iraq war), the SNP and the Greens. And then UKIP from the right.

2005 was the first election since, most likely, the one where Labour overtook the Liberals, that the two main parties got less than 70% vote share combined. In 2010 and 2015 there was also a historically low vote share for the 2 big parties.

Then in 2017 the vote share for the 2 main parties increased suddenly to 82.3%, and 75.7% in 2019.

What happened in those two years was that in those elections both parties stood for something. The Tories stood for Brexit and that kind of ideological mission and patriotism, Labour stood for socialism. Even in 2019, more people voted for Labour than in any year since 2001.

The brief period of Corbynism delayed the drift away from Labour to the left. If you remember, there was a large anti-austerity movement which Labour was notably absent from in the early 00s. Stuff like Left Unity and the People's Assembly were likely close to forming a credible left alternative to Labour, one reason IMO why Corbyn was allowed to stand for leadership in 2017, to try and prove Labour was still a broad church. Brexit allowed Tories to temporarily fuse the neoliberal centre with the patriotic hard right.

Now both those conditions are gone, and we have a return to the decline of the 2 party system.

Most likely by 2029 election disillusionment with Labour will lead to the emergence of a credible left alternative, whether the Greens or something new.

I predict the 2029 election or perhaps the 2034 election will have a similar scenario to France, where the centre has collapsed and you have a competition between Reform and (insert left wing party here).
Would like to do a longer reply, but on phone. I'm not sure it's 'just" about the neo liberal core. It is that, but there's also the profound sense politics has gone elsewhere, abandoning communities. All of this has certainly opened the way for Reflux and populism of the right though ironically, will see the election of the ultimate neoliberal void in a couple of weeks. It certainly opens the way for something on the left, but I struggle to see from where. The Corbyn mass membership is defeated and scattered, and the anti cuts movement isn't much better. It will also be a massive psychological leap for the unions to abandon Labour and the experiences of Enough is Enough weren't good.
 
This is the latest two opinion polls that have come out today: one has Reform one point of the head of the Tories the other one has them 9 points behind - what the hell's going on?
1718988036375.png


How can the polls be so variable? I know they can't get it exactly right, but at least you would imagine they'd all be similar to each other?

Take these two opinion polls:
1718988190850.png

and these two:
1718988199023.png
 
Last edited:
Different methods of dealing with "don't knows" by the polling companies is the main reason i've seen.
Methodological differences between’no adjustment’ polling and‘squeeze question’ polling.

 
I drove through North Herefordshire t'other day - lots of Green posters. Lots of LibDem posters in South Shropshire - they're next to each other, both with Tory incumbents....
 
That's not the only one
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Waveney Valley Constituency Voting Intention:<br><br>GRN: 37% (+28)<br>CON: 24% (-38)<br>LAB: 17% (-2)<br>RFM: 16% (New)<br>LDM: 7% (-2)<br><br>Via <a href="x.com">@wethinkpolling</a>, 6-14 Jun.<br>Changes w/ GE2019 Notional.</p>&mdash; Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) <a href="">June 21, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Random thought... has there been lots of flooding recently?

The rivers issue is live in both constituency - the Teme, the Clun, the Lugg, and the Wye are all rivers every kid in those areas would have swum in 10 years ago - including mine - now you'd only go in the Wye and Lugg if you thought licking pub toilets wasn't a risky enough activity for you.
 
That's not the only one
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Waveney Valley Constituency Voting Intention:<br><br>GRN: 37% (+28)<br>CON: 24% (-38)<br>LAB: 17% (-2)<br>RFM: 16% (New)<br>LDM: 7% (-2)<br><br>Via <a href="x.com">@wethinkpolling</a>, 6-14 Jun.<br>Changes w/ GE2019 Notional.</p>&mdash; Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) <a href="">June 21, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Wow, looks like Greens are set to get all 4 of their target seats then?
 
That's a hell a lot of people switching from Conservative to Green.
‘Middle England’ tends not to be the racist and fuck the poor caricature of the modern Tory party. They’re BBC, CofE, National Trust, RSPB, Attenborough, nice walks in the country types. Stuff like sewage in the rivers plays very poorly with them. The Green Party does have attractions for them, safe and middle-class enough, and I suspect the local campaign here focuses on local maters and the ‘green and pleasant land’ side of things. Here in Bristol Central we probably get a bit more about Gaza and climate change.
 
Back
Top Bottom