Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yeah, but (as posted yesterday) that 19 - 25% near margin of error range that the vermin are currently in can result in an enormous seat total range, from 27 to 168.
personally, through nothing more than gut-reaction, belief in a small convergence and a tendency to believe the worst about 'shy tories' in the polling station, I'm going for a prediction of around 140 seats for the vermin
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
Farage's Ukraine-NATO gaffe.
lazythursday
Well-Known Member
I'm glad the Tories are bouncing back a touch. Much as the scenario of a lib dem opposition is superficially glorious, I don't think a complete Tory wipeout is a good thing for the long term with Reform there waiting to fill their place. Every seat around here has Reform placed second according to electoral calculus. I don't want to find myself with a far right council and MP in five years. It scares me quite frankly.
moochedit
I'm not feeding seagulls
Jeff Robinson
Marxist-Lentilist: Jackboots and Jackfruit
what a time to be alive
Silas Loom
Advanced. Forthright. Signifficant.
I have never understood how satisfaction scores are meant to work given that political leaders of whom one disapproves only satisfy through incompetence. I’d much rather see “like” ratings.
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
A internecine war between the two Tory parties would be good, they will damage each other for years. A disintegrated Conservative Party vote will be divided between a newly emergent liberal Democrats and Reform and some going over to Labour, this will mean a massive leftward-shift in British politics, And a total weakening of the right.
Well, in terms of Parliament I mean
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BusLanes
Pedestrian
YouGov have Libs up 3 at 15. So don't count out Davey
lazythursday
Well-Known Member
I think you are wrong. There is going to be no leftward shift of politics under Starmer, and the right will reunite (or one party will win out over the other) before the next election. How well Reform does will have a significant impact on how far right that future opposition is.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Obviously didn't poll the Onetruepath Labour supporters cell on here
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
they're already doing the 'ooh I think when we open the books things will look bleaker than many fear' stuff, that and the self imposed fiscal rules bollocks means unless-for the first time in recorded history- they are going to suddenly turn into lenin post election we are basically looking at these shits managing the decline.
lazythursday
Well-Known Member
I think there's a smidgeon of hope that the 'when we open the books stuff' could lead to something positive, eg emergency wealth tax or something, but I really have given up hope of nice surprises from Labour at this point.
And let's face it, any government, of any political persuasion and level of competence, is going to struggle with the state of the country. The chance of disillusionment and the rise of a far right populist response feels like an odd on certainty, not one possibility amongst many. So yeah, find it hard to cheer any of these polls that show a strong Reform vote, no matter how much that hurts the Tories.
Storm Fox
Trying the find the next noun to verb
I think you may be correct if the Liberal Democrats are the official opposition. The Overton Window will shift leftwards, but if the Tories are in opposition, then I'll expect it to be better under Starmer than now, but there will be no overall change.
Even more of a longshot, I hope Labour will bring in Single Transferable Vote system.
lazythursday
Well-Known Member
I don't think the Overton window will shift very far leftwards while we have a very right wing media ecosystem. The media will focus on the antics of Farage and chums in Parliament (if they get elected) not the Liberal Democrats. I'm guessing that Reform will be second to Labour in far more constituencies than the Lib Dems will be, so will be able to present themselves as the real opposition to Labour.
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
At the moment I think Labour is gonna have an easy ride for 10 years as far as elections are concerned. I am also starting to think will there ever be a Conservative government again maybe a Conservative Party in a coalition with another party but on its own again? Demographics are against it as well as most of their vote come from old people who are slowly dying off, young people overwhelmingly vote labour, a very gentle push to Labour each year as the years go on.
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Five years ago, they were saying nothing could stop the Tories being in power for a generation.
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
Seven years ago labour were on 40%, it looks like the Tories are gonna be on about 22% maybe less. They've had a massive kick in the balls.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
We'll have a Labour government facing the same issues and problems as the Tories, basically a fucked economy. Labour has lost it's organic links to working class life as well. So, with the inevitable disappointment, the space that opens up will be on the right. There could be a left response, maybe a response based around community organising, but the chances are slim to non-existent (for example, the Enough is Enough debacle). Who knows how the battle between Reflux and the Tories will play out, but I suspect it will be a failing Labour administration facing some stripe of right populism over the next few years.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
I dont want ReFuk to do well. This is like in the US when the republican headbangers were pushing nut job tea party policies and lots of people were saying "good - they will make the repbulicans enelctable" - but then along came Trump.
Far right ideas and opinions will be made ever more mainstream - rather than being beyond the pale. That is not a good thing.
Far right ideas and opinions will be made ever more mainstream - rather than being beyond the pale. That is not a good thing.
Hotel Chocolate
Well-Known Member
When Labour wins the election it's gonna be a bit of an exception to the rest of Europe which has turned to the right and far-right. The United Kingdom could become a beacon for the rest of Europe.
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moochedit
I'm not feeding seagulls
Very unlikely because a) unless polls are way out then labour is likely to have a massive overall majority under fptp (and they won't be thinking further ahead than the next parliament) b) starmer doesn't do any kind of "change". C) many (not all) in labour are strongly opposed to PR.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Was just about to post something similar. As you say, this is about who comes to fore on the right, who wears the mantle. But it's also about the failure of the left to have it's own 'populist' engagement with the working class. And kicking a man while he's down/struggling to keep his sear, the big lost opportunity to re-engage with the working class was all the hundreds of thousands of troops Corbyn and Momentum recruited and then... erm....
Leafster
.
I've just found this website (via an Emily Maitlis tweet) which compares the predictions from the major pollsters on a constituency by constituency basis.
There's also a comparison of the tactical voting recommendations here:
There's also a comparison of the tactical voting recommendations here:
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