Political polling

[Wilf]

Hypothesis to test -

Both main parties have alienated a large section of their support so that there are going to be a lot more people who are uncertain how they are going to vote or if they are going to vote at all. Plainly the Tories are doing particularly badly at the present, but we should see a disproportionate boost to the smaller parties - Greens, Libdems, Brexit, SNP and Plaid combined with a general decrease in turn outs.

I think this is what most people on here, myself included, expect to see. But I'm not sure we're seeing it exactly. To play devil's advocate - maybe the centrists/Labour right are right. Maybe Starmer had a sound strategy all along and keeping quiet and waiting for the Tories to self-immolate and then forming a "progressive alliance" to tactically vote them out of power. Maybe we're not seeing general dissatisfaction but a long lasting switch of voters away from the Tories as happened in the 90's.

I don't think we can say yet. You could read North Shropshire either way and the current polling may or may not last if the Tories change leadership. Time will tell.

I'm not at all sure about the Starmer point. For one thing, parties aiming to form a government do need some sense of 'presence', to have some kind of identity, principles and policies that pick up on voters resentments and aspirations. That's not where Labour are at all, Starmer even less. The other thing is now is a perfect time to be shouting the virtues of the social democratic state, NHS, public services and redistribution. And linking all of that to the tory's failure/corruption and to pandemic recovery. I doubt many voters would have a clue what Labour stand for.

 

[Knotted]

I'm not at all sure about the Starmer point. For one thing, parties aiming to form a government do need some sense of 'presence', to have some kind of identity, principles and policies that pick up on voters resentments and aspirations. That's not where Labour are at all, Starmer even less. The other thing is now is a perfect time to be shouting the virtues of the social democratic state, NHS, public services and redistribution. And linking all of that to the tory's failure/corruption and to pandemic recovery. I doubt many voters would have a clue what Labour stand for.

That sounds like a reasonable thing a party of government needs to be and I'm inclined to agree with you. But maybe not? Maybe Labour can win by being generally "not too bad". Starmer's Labour stand for safe, uncontroversial managerial government. That's the brand. I don't think much of it, but I'm not the general population. Dissatisfied Tory voters seem (there are alternative interpretations) to be switching to Labour (or Lib Dem) in some numbers when they have alternative Faragist protest votes to use if they feel so inclined.

 

[Sasaferrato]

That sounds like a reasonable thing a party of government needs to be and I'm inclined to agree with you. But maybe not? Maybe Labour can win by being generally "not too bad". Starmer's Labour stand for safe, uncontroversial managerial government. That's the brand. I don't think much of it, but I'm not the general population. Dissatisfied Tory voters seem (there are alternative interpretations) to be switching to Labour (or Lib Dem) in some numbers when they have alternative Faragist protest votes to use if they feel so inclined.

There is a vast chasm between what people say they will do vote wise when they are annoyed with their PM or party, and what they actually do when standing in the voting booth.

In Scotland, the situation is more complicated, for the majority of people it is 'Anyone bar the SNP'. Much is made of Trump not winning the majority of votes cast, neither did the SNP. Hopefully, at the next election, the majority will vote tactically, and get shot of the SNP, whilst we still have a country left.

 

[Kaka Tim]

That sounds like a reasonable thing a party of government needs to be and I'm inclined to agree with you. But maybe not? Maybe Labour can win by being generally "not too bad". Starmer's Labour stand for safe, uncontroversial managerial government. That's the brand. I don't think much of it, but I'm not the general population. Dissatisfied Tory voters seem (there are alternative interpretations) to be switching to Labour (or Lib Dem) in some numbers when they have alternative Faragist protest votes to use if they feel so inclined.

i dont see any evidence of tory voters switching to labour. If its someone "sensible" and competent seeming like Shunak that may well be enough for those tories revolted by johnson to come back to. I think the torys will loose some to refuck cos they have bungled brexit and are still letting foreign types in. Labour will lose votes to the greens and to stay-at-homes but will probably do marginally better than 2019, yellow vermin will gain some seats - tories will do marginally worse than last time - small majority/hung parliament with Tories biggest party probably likeliest outcomes. Especially when the tories have finished with their voter suppression and gerrymandering.
If labour were offering an actual tangible alternative in the corbyn mode with a leader who came across as even vaguely fired up they'd be solidly and positively ahead - rather than being ahead in the polls by default. Reminds me of team milliband's "strategy" of relying on UKIP to eat the tory vote rather than win people over with some actual policies, ideas and arguments.

 

[Dogsauce]

That sounds like a reasonable thing a party of government needs to be and I'm inclined to agree with you. But maybe not? Maybe Labour can win by being generally "not too bad". Starmer's Labour stand for safe, uncontroversial managerial government. That's the brand. I don't think much of it, but I'm not the general population. Dissatisfied Tory voters seem (there are alternative interpretations) to be switching to Labour (or Lib Dem) in some numbers when they have alternative Faragist protest votes to use if they feel so inclined.

The other thing is Starmer might be a harder target for the press to demonise due to his bland centrism, they can’t really play the reds-under-the-beds card so well. This might benefit the party. At the same time his awkwardness/woodenness might lead to a bacon butty moment, or perhaps a ‘racist woman’ style gaff, but he’ll be a tougher target for the cunt press than Corbyn/Milliband.

 

[Knotted]

i dont see any evidence of tory voters switching to labour. If its someone "sensible" and competent seeming like Shunak that may well be enough for those tories revolted by johnson to come back to. I think the torys will loose some to refuck cos they have bungled brexit and are still letting foreign types in. Labour will lose votes to the greens and to stay-at-homes but will probably do marginally better than 2019, yellow vermin will gain some seats - tories will do marginally worse than last time - small majority/hung parliament with Tories biggest party probably likeliest outcomes. Especially when the tories have finished with their voter suppression and gerrymandering.
If labour were offering an actual tangible alternative in the corbyn mode with a leader who came across as even vaguely fired up they'd be solidly and positively ahead - rather than being ahead in the polls by default. Reminds me of team milliband's "strategy" of relying on UKIP to eat the tory vote rather than win people over with some actual policies, ideas and arguments.

My hunch is that the Tory's popular coalition from 2019 was fragile and has disintegrated around the edges and I don't think they'll win it (all) back. I suspect their woes are deeper than dissatisfaction with Johnson. [I keep saying Brexit Party but yes it's Refuk now].

 

[Sasaferrato]

i dont see any evidence of tory voters switching to labour. If its someone "sensible" and competent seeming like Shunak that may well be enough for those tories revolted by johnson to come back to. I think the torys will loose some to refuck cos they have bungled brexit and are still letting foreign types in. Labour will lose votes to the greens and to stay-at-homes but will probably do marginally better than 2019, yellow vermin will gain some seats - tories will do marginally worse than last time - small majority/hung parliament with Tories biggest party probably likeliest outcomes. Especially when the tories have finished with their voter suppression and gerrymandering.
If labour were offering an actual tangible alternative in the corbyn mode with a leader who came across as even vaguely fired up they'd be solidly and positively ahead - rather than being ahead in the polls by default. Reminds me of team milliband's "strategy" of relying on UKIP to eat the tory vote rather than win people over with some actual policies, ideas and arguments.

Me neither.

It is time for a change of government, but how can one vote for Starmer? What does he actually stand for? What are his policies? I did not support Corbyn, but I knew what he stood for.

It isn't my job to track this info down, it is his job to ensure I know it.

 

[Serge Forward]

That's an easy one, he stands for the bosses.

 

[BristolEcho]

That's an easy one, he stands for the bosses.

Flags too.

 

[MickiQ]

I don't think Starmer stands for much of anything to be truthful. He doesn't seem to want to be Prime Minister to change the world, he seems to want to be Prime Minister because he just wants to be. The trouble with that is he doesn't seem to have much idea how to go about it. Taking the Labour Party to the Left costs Centrist votes, taking it to the Centre costs Leftist votes and neither bloc is big enough to win alone so he needs to forge common ground. Blair managed that not so much through policies but sheer force of will and personal charisma and Starmer just doesn't have those qualities.
His motivation for being PM is basically the same as Boris but Boris has an unshakeable belief in his own divine destiny that can blind him to cockup after cockup but Starmer can basically just be summed up with one word. "meh"

 

[philosophical]

If one of the Labour Party slogans is going to be ‘make Brexit work’, then they can either provide a detailed solution the land border issue in Ireland, or they can fuck off.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

That's an easy one, he stands for the bosses.

the only thing i can recall him having a firm opinion on was that the alpaca must die...

i'm hoping someone called Mr Al Packer stands against him at the next election...

 

[Sasaferrato]

I don't think Starmer stands for much of anything to be truthful. He doesn't seem to want to be Prime Minister to change the world, he seems to want to be Prime Minister because he just wants to be. The trouble with that is he doesn't seem to have much idea how to go about it. Taking the Labour Party to the Left costs Centrist votes, taking it to the Centre costs Leftist votes and neither bloc is big enough to win alone so he needs to forge common ground. Blair managed that not so much through policies but sheer force of will and personal charisma and Starmer just doesn't have those qualities.
His motivation for being PM is basically the same as Boris but Boris has an unshakeable belief in his own divine destiny that can blind him to cockup after cockup but Starmer can basically just be summed up with one word. "meh"

Charisma and Starmer? Nope.

 

[Sasaferrato]

If one of the Labour Party slogans is going to be ‘make Brexit work’, then they can either provide a detailed solution the land border issue in Ireland, or they can fuck off.

What colour of unicorn do you want?

 

[Smangus]

What colour of unicorn do you want?

Orange?

#getscoat...

 

[Sasaferrato]

Orange?

#getscoat...

 

[danny la rouge]

Me neither.

It is time for a change of government, but how can one vote for Starmer? What does he actually stand for? What are his policies? I did not support Corbyn, but I knew what he stood for.

It isn't my job to track this info down, it is his job to ensure I know it.

He’s a cop and stands for protecting the property of the wealthy.

 

[Supine]

Me neither.

It is time for a change of government, but how can one vote for Starmer? What does he actually stand for? What are his policies? I did not support Corbyn, but I knew what he stood for.

It isn't my job to track this info down, it is his job to ensure I know it.

This isn’t the point in the election cycle where the position need to put out their agenda. And it will be labour policies not just starmers when they are developed.

 

[brogdale]

This isn’t the point in the election cycle where the position need to put out their agenda. And it will be labour policies not just starmers when they are developed.

How does Starmer know what point we're in the election cycle?

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

This isn’t the point in the election cycle where the position need to put out their agenda. And it will be labour policies not just starmers when they are developed.

Once upon a time parties had things that they called 'principles'. At any time of any day in any year you could look at these 'principle' thingies and it gave you a rough idea of what the parties supposedly stood for, not what some bunch at the top decided at the last moment without any recourse to the party members, if there are any left by then.

 

[Sue]

Once upon a time parties had things that they called 'principles'. At any time of any day in any year you could look at these 'principle' thingies and it gave you a rough idea of what the parties supposedly stood for, not what some bunch at the top decided at the last moment without any recourse to the party members, if there are any left by then.

What is this madness? Will no-one think of the poor focus groups?

 

[kabbes]

This isn’t the point in the election cycle where the position need to put out their agenda. And it will be labour policies not just starmers when they are developed.

This is the point in the election cycle where the electorate get the hang of what the other team would do if they were in charge. Without that, there is no credibility.

 

[Sasaferrato]

How does Starmer know what point we're in the election cycle?

That is a bloody good question.

 

[Sasaferrato]

This is the point in the election cycle where the electorate get the hang of what the other team would do if they were in charge. Without that, there is no credibility.

I refer you to my initial point re Starmer.

 

[brogdale]

Savanta showing a double digit lead to Lab, but not quite the decay of the tory base that might have been expected?

 

[brogdale]

Slightly bigger lead by YG:

 

[Kaka Tim]

be interesting to see how the insulting the queen stuff plays out. May be the sort of thing that really fucks off older toryish voters.

 

[brogdale]

be interesting to see how the insulting the queen stuff plays out. May be the sort of thing that really fucks off older toryish voters.

Statesman has this pre-Queen stuff polling showing that the base was/is already very soft:

 

[Knotted]

Statesman has this pre-Queen stuff polling showing that the base was/is already very soft:

That's really interesting. Shows the Tories have lost the bulk of their support to non of the above.

 

[brogdale]

That's really interesting. Shows the Tories have lost the bulk of their support to non of the above.

Yes, a full 1/3 of them saying they'd just sit on their hands is quite something.
Of course, we'd expect that figure to decline when faced with an actual election leading to the 'normal' pre-polling convergence, but the longer Johnson hangs around the more deep-seated their electoral challenge becomes.