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Political polling

brogdale said:
Yes, a full 1/3 of them saying they'd just sit on their hands is quite something.
Of course, we'd expect that figure to decline when faced with an actual election leading to the 'normal' pre-polling convergence, but the longer Johnson hangs around the more deep-seated their electoral challenge becomes.
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very much so
onaly a tiny 5% to Labour suggests the election will be a lot tighter than any Labour leading polls show
 
Johnson's approval polling lined up with UK covid case rate data; letting rip from July 21 appears to be the point of divergence from which his personal polling has never recovered.
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brogdale said:
Yes, but the lowered case rates of Spring saw a re-convergence of the ratings that fluctuated around parity before the great divergence from July onwards.
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You could look a those two lines and think that they follow each other almost exactly, but the true picture is more complex - you don't imagine that his current ratings are down to the soaring case rate do you?
 
killer b said:
You could look a those two lines and think that they follow each other almost exactly, but the true picture is more complex - you don't imagine that his current ratings are down to the soaring case rate do you?
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No, but I thought it worth posting for discussion.
 
killer b said:
It's a great example of correlation =/= causation. Not sure what it tells us beyond that.
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Fair enough; for me I think it offers an interesting context within which to analyse Johnson's own personal approval ratings...but each to their own.
 
Interesting to see the Libdems not benefiting. I wonder if the story is Labour people pissed off with Starmer being reminded that they hate the Tories enough to vote Labour rather than sulking because of Starmer being crap? Coupled with Tories saying they'll stay home? Which would suggest that the Libdems still don't offer a protest vote to either group.
 
I don't like blaming voters etc. but it does look like the folk of Dudley, Bassetlaw and Grimsby need to have a bit of talk with themselves! :D

 
From today's Mail on Sunday


Conservatives are facing 'electoral wipeout' following the Partygate scandal, a pollster warned, as data shows they are on track to lose a staggering 164 MPs, leaving them with just 201 - only three more than when Tony Blair thumped Michael Howard in 2005. The JL Partners poll of 4,500 people says Sir Keir Starmer's Labour would pick up 352 seats, an increase of 150, giving him an overall majority of 14. Meanwhile, the Tories would be wiped out of Scotland and Wales, losing all six and 14 seats they hold in each nation respectively. But the fatal blow would come from the 65 so-called 'red wall' consituencies in the north - who handed Boris a landslide in 2019, largely thanks to his promise to 'get Brexit done'. According to the latest poll, all but 10 of these - 55 - would revert back to Labour if an election were held tomorrow - including Blyth Valley, Redcar, Sedgefield, North West Durham, Bassetlaw, Great Grimsby and Ashfield. Other big name losses could include Defence Secretary Ben Wallace
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