Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
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Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
Lawyers have presumably been on the blower, 'cos 2 of the tweets have been deleted.
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Thread by @chriscurtis94 on Thread Reader App
@chriscurtis94: My experience of the 2017 General Election was probably a bit different from Andrew's. Firstly, it is worth noting just how dramatically the opinion polls changed during the course of the campaign. T...…
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ska invita
back on the other side
Big thread on twitter from Chris Curtis today on how YouGov was pressured to not release positive Labour polling in 2017 by Zawahi. Presented just as an interesting aside rather than evidence of the corruptness of the British establishment
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banned by who?
I don't think that's what Chris Curtis has done here, he's not a political actor in that kind of way. I think he just shared what he thought was an interesting story about the 2017 election that pulled back the curtain on the polling industry in ways that he didn't anticipate.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
I suppose they probably spiked the poll as a punchline.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Polls are silly now because some respondents will think "I'm not voting for the Conservatives led by Johnson" and others will think "I'll vote Conservative because my preferred candidate is sure to be leading them soon", etc.
Why not wait until a new leader is chosen so that when people think "how would I vote in a general election tomorrow" they will all be starting with the assumptions?
Why not wait until a new leader is chosen so that when people think "how would I vote in a general election tomorrow" they will all be starting with the assumptions?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Because polling companies poll.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Labour with a 15% lead - so much for the truss honeymoon - I actually do think the tories are finally fucked. Cost of living will do for them. To be talking about tax cuts when the coutnry is facing a huge hike in energy bills that will send tens of millions of people to wall, knacker thousands of companies and collapse the economy is utter bobbins. As Gove said today - "Truss is taking a holiday from reality".
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ska invita
back on the other side
yeah and its only just begun...but next general election is "scheduled to be held no later than Friday 24 January 2025" ...lot of madness to happen before then
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Seems like it but Labour had a bigger lead in 2013 and two years later the Tories increased their number of seats.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
that wa the year of labours final collapse in scotland, in no small part* down to backing the 'better together' option in the scots indy reff (2014)Seems like it but Labour had a bigger lead in 2013 and two years later the Tories increased their number of seats.
*theres more to it than that but observing from down here it looked like the straw that crippled the camel.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Seems like it but Labour had a bigger lead in 2013 and two years later the Tories increased their number of seats.
Labours lead in 2013 was - IIRC - averaging around 5% (very rarely getting above 10%) . UKIP were polling consistently above 10% - much of that vote went back to the tories in 2015 after cameron promised a referendum - also the lib dem vote was in the toilet. UKIP are no longer taking a bite out of the tory vote and now lib dems are a threat to the tories again - so its not obvious where they can get votes back.
The point about the latest polls is that the labour lead has started to increase again - it narrowed after johnson resigned. Seems that the more people see of truss the less they like her . The energy price hike threatens to be poll tax mark two . That - and other cost of living stuff - is going to cost the tories dearly.
You also get the sense that significant sections big money and the media are happy to swing behind labour as starmer is not much of a threat and the tories are increasingly hopeless. similar to what happened prior to 1997.
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
In March 1990 polling put Labour on 54% to the Cons 30%. Their 'modernising' leader who'd taken on the left of the party lost the election 2 years later with Cons on 42.8% and Lab on 35.2%.
Neil "We're alright!" Starmer
Jeremiah18.17
Well-Known Member
Worth bearing in mind that the names lined up for Truss’s cabinet are all culture war headbangers whose politics are not too far away from the mob who stormed the US Capitol building. To people of that mindset, crisis, violence and misery are not things to be necessarily avoided, but opportunities to override whatever meagre restraints are left on govt in the UK and go full on for some kind of vicious Randian authoritarianism…
ska invita
back on the other side
Absolutely a possibility, agreed. Hard to know at this point how much Truss is just playing to her crowd and how much will be vicious "philosophy" enacted, to quote the Telegraph
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
In March 1990 polling put Labour on 54% to the Cons 30%. Their 'modernising' leader who'd taken on the left of the party lost the election 2 years later with Cons on 42.8% and Lab on 35.2%.
Neil "We're alright!" Starmer
The poll tax was killing the tories. replacing thatcher with major and ditching the poll tax - plus kinnocks self evident wankerness - was enough for them to win in 1992.
But i dont think replacing Johnson with Truss is going to have the same effect - it doesnt pull off the trick of it being a different government in the same way. Truss is Johnson mk 2 with all the bullshit but without the personality. The polling seems to show that now the public have had a good look at truss - they are not very impressed.
It was "black Wednesday" in 1992 - when the uk crashed out of the ERM - that destroyed the tories reputation for competence. Runaway inflation, soraing energy bills and the criticals state of the NHS will likely do the same for them now. Also - Truss an co are utterly incompetent and shit at politics . I wouldn't put money on her pulling off a Houdini act.
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