elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah I dont follow him, I just saw that Gordon Brown was trending (and it doesnt take that many tweets in order to show up as trending).
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Yeah I dont follow him, I just saw that Gordon Brown was trending (and it doesnt take that many tweets in order to show up as trending).
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
BristolEcho
Well-Known Member
Hey. I love Martin Lewis. My money was an absolute shit show until I came across his site and information. Now it's simply a shit show.
Nine Bob Note
Self-Isolating before it was fashionable
This recent polling news is fantastic! 33-34% of the country are sociopaths. Let us rejoice!
Couple of comments.
Wow 'Other' are really slaying it in that poll. I guess that's mainly Refuk. Maybe a bit of an outlier there.
I wonder how much of the Tory losses are due to voters switching and how much are due to Tory voters being unsure they'll vote at all. I may look into this if I get time.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Have there been any of those “how would you vote if the Tories were led by Sunak/Truss/Hunt etc” polls recently?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Supine
Newt Member
It really annoys me when poll results don’t show the party with the biggest number at the top of the list. It’s like they think the tories have it as their rightful position.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Not sure I believe you.
I did wonder if the natural and inevitable Tory sleaze and incompetence implosion would combine, at some point, with Starmer's lack of political nous and talent to revive the Lib Dems as a viable protest vote option. We'll probably have to wait until memory of the recent by-election has passed to know if they can actually hold their VI in the teens though.
Hypothesis to test -
Both main parties have alienated a large section of their support so that there are going to be a lot more people who are uncertain how they are going to vote or if they are going to vote at all. Plainly the Tories are doing particularly badly at the present, but we should see a disproportionate boost to the smaller parties - Greens, Libdems, Brexit, SNP and Plaid combined with a general decrease in turn outs.
I think this is what most people on here, myself included, expect to see. But I'm not sure we're seeing it exactly. To play devil's advocate - maybe the centrists/Labour right are right. Maybe Starmer had a sound strategy all along and keeping quiet and waiting for the Tories to self-immolate and then forming a "progressive alliance" to tactically vote them out of power. Maybe we're not seeing general dissatisfaction but a long lasting switch of voters away from the Tories as happened in the 90's.
I don't think we can say yet. You could read North Shropshire either way and the current polling may or may not last if the Tories change leadership. Time will tell.
Both main parties have alienated a large section of their support so that there are going to be a lot more people who are uncertain how they are going to vote or if they are going to vote at all. Plainly the Tories are doing particularly badly at the present, but we should see a disproportionate boost to the smaller parties - Greens, Libdems, Brexit, SNP and Plaid combined with a general decrease in turn outs.
I think this is what most people on here, myself included, expect to see. But I'm not sure we're seeing it exactly. To play devil's advocate - maybe the centrists/Labour right are right. Maybe Starmer had a sound strategy all along and keeping quiet and waiting for the Tories to self-immolate and then forming a "progressive alliance" to tactically vote them out of power. Maybe we're not seeing general dissatisfaction but a long lasting switch of voters away from the Tories as happened in the 90's.
I don't think we can say yet. You could read North Shropshire either way and the current polling may or may not last if the Tories change leadership. Time will tell.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Useful post.
Not sure about this bit, though:
I know Starmer has alienated chunks of the activist membership, but I'm not convinced that much of the LP 'core' vote know about or give a fig about the inter-factional stuff; Labour is still putting a X in the box that says Labour.
I reckon, atm, the tories have alienated a bigger chunk of their core with the party stuff...but that anger will wane.
In Scotland, the SNP are not a smaller party. And 'main parties' doesn't really include Labour (which alienated most of its support a long time ago).
I tend to agree with that. But this means that Labour will struggle to get its vote out at elections and we won't see any pre-election surges that we saw under Corbyn and there's a tendency towards unpopular local stitch ups. So I think that when push comes to shove Labour will do worse than expected.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yeah, I think the much vaunted (Momentum) 'ground-war' will be much depleted for the next GE, but I'm figuring that the Starmerites have come round to the notion of spending more on the electronic 'air-war' like the tories have to.
Labour are an irrelevance tbh. Much newish Tory support in Scotland is actually unionist support so as long as they continue to out-union Labour...
Eta There's a difference between the Tory vote that's always been there and support for the Tories as support for the union.
Labour are an irrelevance tbh. Much Tory support in Scotland is actually unionist support so as long as they continue to out-union Labour...
But that might be why Labour might see a minor resurgence. They are well placed as unionist party number 2 when the Tories fail on other grounds.
They're even shit at being unionist party number 2.
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
Of course it will. Whether it will wane enough to secure election victory remains to be seen.
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