Political polling

[Delroy Booth]

Is that a message directed to ukip protest voters?

It might be yeah, after all the "A vote for UKIP is a vote for Comrade Miliband" line doesn't really work if there's a Tory-UKIP pact of some description.

So they're trying to kill UKIP rather than acccommodate it. Interesting.

 

[brogdale]

Updated graphic from Electoral Calculus....



Some evidence of a mirror image between the blue & purple lines?

For those of a nervous disposition..... I'll repeat an earlier post and point out where the blue line is on the left hand vertical axis. With that support the tories failed to win a majority. Until they exceed that % they've not got a hope.

 

[brogdale]

Smithson's pie-graph watch...

With 36% of 2010 LD voters saying Lab 2015, and 18% of 2010 tory voters saying UKIP 2015...the tories remain fucked.

As Smithson says...worth keeping an eye on those two %s.

 

[butchersapron]

Indy ComRes looking like their monthly has a big labour boost tonight +7/8%. Which would suggest their 1% labour lead last month was a margin of of error thing with labour fully undervalued and tories fully overvalued.

 

[butchersapron]

Confirmed now:

CON 30 -2
LAB 38 +5
LD 10 +1
UKIP 11 -3

 

[brogdale]

Smithson nails the 'UKIP hurting all parties" meme....

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/in...es-away-from-the-tories-than-any-other-party/

Crucial quote....

This is based on studies showing that white, working class men who finished their education at secondary school are being disproportionately attracted to Farage’s party.

That might indeed be true but were these Labour supporters in the first place?

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

It's what I've been saying from the beginning these people were always working class Tories certainly in the South. Up North it's a more complex picture but there's not enough of them to seriously threaten Labour especially in 2015 when people will be voting to get the Tories out and not to give Labour a bloody nose.

 

[J Ed]

http://euobserver.com/news/123367

BRUSSELS - Europe's far-left are set to outnumber the Liberals in the next European Parliament, according to a pan-EU opinion poll published on Wednesday (5 March).

In the second of a series of fortnightly forecasts in the three months before Europe's 400 million voters go to the ballot booths from 22-25 May, Pollwatch Europe forecasts that the Parliament's leftist GUE group would see its number of MEPs swell to 67 seats and become the third largest group in the assembly.

For their part, the Liberals would be reduced to 61 seats, well down on the 85 seats they secured five years ago.

The poll, which is based on national surveys from all 28 EU countries, is the latest indication that the Liberals will lose their status as the Parliament's 'kingmakers'.

....

Alexis Tsipras, who is the left's candidate for the presidency of the European Commission, and his Syriza party are on course to top the poll in Greece in May's elections, while strong performances are also likely for the Portuguese Left Bloc and the recently launched Italian Tsipras List.

Meanwhile, the new poll also predicts that German neo-Nazi party, the National Democrats, will be among several minor parties to win seats in the European Parliament for the first time in May.

 

[J Ed]

Anyone know much about the Italian Tsipras List? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Other_Europe

 

[brogdale]

Rather fittingly, Smithson has posted graphics of today's YouGov polling on railway renationalisation.....

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/in...tion-poll-that-bob-crowe-1961-2014-never-saw/

Unsurprisingly the tory supporters least favourable to renationalisation....but still at 50% for!.

Mr Crow would have enjoyed that.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Anyone know much about the Italian Tsipras List? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Other_Europe

there is an Italian politics thread in the international forum, might be worth asking there

 

[William of Walworth]

Latest Graun poll here

Lab 38% (nc), Tories 35% (+1%), LibDems 12% (+1%), UKIP 9% (-2%), Others 7% (-1%).

The Analysis' section at the foot of that article is interesting, especially about the limits to how high UKIP looks capable of climbing.

 

[J Ed]

http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1124/bbc-breakfast-cost-of-living-.htm

· More Britons say that their personal financial situation has got worse (31%) over the last 12 months than say that it has improved (17%), however half (51%) say that it has stayed the same.

· However, Britons are more likely to say that they think their personal financial situation will improve (28%) than get worse (19%) over the next 12 months.[/quote

 

[Dogsauce]

Unsurprisingly the tory supporters least favourable to renationalisation....but still at 50% for!.

Mr Crow would have enjoyed that.

UKIP voters are the second keenest on 75%. Mind, they probably want steam trains brought back too with ostentatiously uniformed station staff strutting about like sergeant-majors making the trains 'run on time'...

 

[J Ed]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/24/labour-tories-populus-comres-polls-jon-cruddas

Ed Miliband has come under further pressure with two new polls suggesting the Labour lead over the Conservatives is narrowing.

The head of Miliband's policy review, Jon Cruddas, added his voice to calls from a coalition of Labour thinktanks and senior party figures who have called for a strategic change in direction.

A Populus poll published on Monday showed Labour on 35% and the Tories on 34%; Comres also showed a narrowing, with Labour on 36% and the Tories on 31% echoing the findings of two weekend polls that suggested George Osborne had won favour with the contents of last week's budget.

 

[Delroy Booth]

wait a few more days before making any rash assumptions on this. The Labour vote hasn't actually gone down very much, there seems to be a bit of movement between Tory and UKIP rather than any significant decline in Labour, which is still averaging around the 37/38 they have been for quite a while. I think the publiclity of the budget and the fact UKIP are a bit quieter than usual has had an impact.

And we've been over the Guardian's reportage of the polls narrowing before - they've got their own agenda at work here.

 

[redsquirrel]

And we've been over the Guardian's reportage of the polls narrowing before - they've got their own agenda at work here.

That's true but there have been a number of polls over the last week which have shown the Labour lead shrinking, in this case there might be something to it.

 

[Delroy Booth]

That's true but there have been a number of polls over the last week which have shown the Labour lead shrinking, in this case there might be something to it.

Perhaps but in most of those cases the lead has only shrunk due to increasing Tory support, not because Labour's is declining. They're still where they've been for the most of the last 2 years, 37/38 with a margin of error of 3, the Tories are creeping up to an average of 33, 34 and UKIP is dropping down to about 10. That won't remain the case if UKIP do well at the Euro elections, which is looking likely.

I should've had a bet on UKIP finishing first at the euro's you'd have got great odds on that a year or two ago.

 

[butchersapron]

This is simply a one/two day extension of past temp closings that soon passed. You only need two diff polls with tories at top of their MOE and and labour at the bottom for the guardian to quickly construct a narrative of pressure on a failing miliband.

 

[ferrelhadley]

The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll is out here. Topline voting intentions are CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%

Bit of an outlier for the past week, but that might wipe the smirk of off Osbornes face.

 

[shagnasty]

The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll is out here. Topline voting intentions are CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%

Bit of an outlier for the past week, but that might wipe the smirk of off Osbornes face.

That suprised me because the last couple of ugov polls have had small leads .I am not upset by this poll espially as it upsets georgy porgy

 

[William of Walworth]

The Opinium/Observer poll from yesterday had it much tighter :

Labour 35% (- 2%), Tories 33% (+ 2%), UKIP 15% (- 1%), LD 10% (nc).

Unsurprisingly that story has the Observer spinning it the way butchers suggested.

 

[shagnasty]

Looks like back to normal youguv poll this morning
CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%

 

[butchersapron]

Yes, that's three six point leads in a row now.

 

[JTG]

Looks like back to normal youguv poll this morning
CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%

OMG, how are The Guardian going to spin this now?

 

[butchersapron]

Top up today:

 

[butchersapron]

Healthy lead for labour EXCEPT FOR TWO DAYS -OMG!!!!!!

 

[Dogsauce]

That's surveyed a couple of days ago, before peak Millergate. Next polls will be interesting - though doesn't feel like Labour have made much capital out of the sacking.

 

[butchersapron]

That's surveyed a couple of days ago, before peak Millergate. Next polls will be interesting - though doesn't feel like Labour have made much capital out of the sacking.

Nothing is effecting anything. The trend is a labour lead by more than enough to win a general election, Passing stuff like millar will not swing support for either side but fuck them all - but they're already figured in.

 

[ferrelhadley]

So the biggest story of Osbornes budget is there is no story. The last big set piece before the UKIPfest that will be the Euro elections and his last real budget before the elections and it only created a week of good polling. The Euros will less than a year to the GE, so the state of 'project Cameron' will be under a lot of scrutiny from the tories. Those in marginals will be starting to sweat heavily.
It took the crash to give them a shot at power post Major and the abiding memory people they will leave with many people is a sort of chummy, posh, cronyism. Far from the fire breathing, tax cutting friend of the upper working\lower middle classes they so crave to be seen as.