Political polling

[brogdale]

but will they vote?, students seem more disillusioned than for many years.

I'm figuring they'll be quite motivated in LD held Uni town seats.

 

[brogdale]

Tonight's ICM Euro poll for the Sunday Telegraph:-

Lab 30%, UKIP 27%, Con 22%, Others 13%, LD 8%.

 

[butchersapron]

This is worth a read on which seats are simply not going to change hands no matter what - and it's a hell of a lot - and the small number of decisive swing seats/voters etc.

 

[brogdale]

LD -> Lab stable at 33%.

The first post-holiday weekend Populus poll has very little change though the LAB lead moves from 1% to 3% – all within the margin of error.

LAB 36 (+1), CON 33 (-1), LD 10 (+1), UKIP 13 (-1).

The poll also shows that 33% of 2010 LDs who voiced a voting intention said they had switched to LAB. Amongst all 2010 LDs, including don’t knows and wont’t votes, the proportion was 24%. This is all pretty much in line with what we’ve seen.

From here.

 

[shagnasty]

The most damaging thing the tories have done is getting into bed with libdems ,the votes that sdp originally took from labour have returned to labour

 

[brogdale]

The first two post-Easter polls today share a three point lead for Labour.

The twice weekly Populus poll has toplines of:-

CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. (Tabs here).

Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of:-

CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%

Source.

 

[brogdale]

...and another Euro poll:-

This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun also had their latest European election voting intention figures. The topline figures continue to show Labour and UKIP battling it out for first place, with the Conservatives off in third :–

LAB 30%, UKIP 27%, CON 22%, LDEM 10%, GREEN 6%.

By my reckoning on a uniform swing this would translate into:-

15 seats for the Con (down 11), 25 seats for Lab (up 12), 5 seats for the LDs (down 6), 21 seats for UKIP (up 8), 1 seat for the Greens (down 1) – the BNP look almost certain to loose their two seats. Full tabs are here.

 

[Quartz]

> the BNP look almost certain to loose their two seats.

Thank goodness.

 

[Teaboy]

> the BNP look almost certain to loose their two seats.

Thank goodness.

They've had their day in the sun. The BNP brand has become even more toxic and UKIP will be mopping up all the soft nationalist vote.

 

[brogdale]

Today's 'Westminster' polling...

....the second of Populus’s* two twice-weekly polls is out this morning and has topline figures of:-

CON 35%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%.

The Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck on 35% a piece. Tabs are here.

...and...

...the daily YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of:-

CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14% (tabs here).

As ever, look at the polls as a whole, don’t make the error of looking more at the ones that give more unusual or exciting results.

*

The last time we saw a poll without a Labour lead was MORI’s October poll last year. That one didn’t herald a great crossover, it was just a blip. You probably shouldn’t get excited about this one yet either – it could be a further narrowing of the polls, or could just be normal variation within the margin of error. Populus tend to show some of the smaller Labour leads anyway, probably as a result of their weighting scheme (Populus weight by party ID, in a similar way to YouGov, but weight Labour to a lower level of identification).

 

[butchersapron]

Wow, look at this academic madness.

He's now done a 6 month update and comes up with:

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Pr(Con largest party) = 59%
Pr(Lab largest party) = 41%
Pr(Con majority) = 33%
Pr(Lab majority) = 19%
Pr(Hung parliament) = 48%
Pr(Hung parliament with Con largest party) = 26%
Pr(Hung parliament with Lab largest party) = 22%

So, when labour had their biggest poll lead - steady around 7-8% he had the tories on 57% chance of winning a majority (labour on 15%). Now they've reined them in to a 3-5% lead he makes the tories chances of a majority only 33% and labour 19%.

 

[brogdale]

He's now done a 6 month update and comes up with:

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Pr(Con largest party) = 59%
Pr(Lab largest party) = 41%
Pr(Con majority) = 33%
Pr(Lab majority) = 19%
Pr(Hung parliament) = 48%
Pr(Hung parliament with Con largest party) = 26%
Pr(Hung parliament with Lab largest party) = 22%

So, when labour had their biggest poll lead - steady around 7-8% he had the tories on 57% chance of winning a majority (labour on 15%). Now they've reined them in to a 3-5% lead he makes the tories chances of a majority only 33% and labour 19%.

 

[kabbes]

He's now done a 6 month update and comes up with:

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Pr(Con largest party) = 59%
Pr(Lab largest party) = 41%
Pr(Con majority) = 33%
Pr(Lab majority) = 19%
Pr(Hung parliament) = 48%
Pr(Hung parliament with Con largest party) = 26%
Pr(Hung parliament with Lab largest party) = 22%

So, when labour had their biggest poll lead - steady around 7-8% he had the tories on 57% chance of winning a majority (labour on 15%). Now they've reined them in to a 3-5% lead he makes the tories chances of a majority only 33% and labour 19%.

The kind of person that gives statistics a bad name

 

[goldenecitrone]

The kind of person that gives statistics a bad name

Should be shot through the heart.

 

[brogdale]

Today's STimes/YG 'Westminster' poll:-

The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll is up online here. Topline figures are:-

CON 31%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%.

UKIP at 15 is high by their recent standards, though we’ve seen a couple in recent weeks. Also worth noting is that the Greens are on 4%, once again, high by recent standards but something that’s popped up a couple of times this week. I suspect in both cases there is something of the impending European elections boosting parties outside the traditional big three. This also happened at the last European elections, though back then it was impossible to confidently distinguish it from the effect of the expenses scandal.

 

[brogdale]

YouGov find that 45% of over 60's, (highest turn-out cohort), intend to vote UKIP in the Euros...

UKIP (45%), Con (20%), Lab (19%), LD (8%), Oth (8%). (for this cohort)

....45% of those who expressed a voting intention said UKIP....The oldies are, as is well known, much more likely to turn out to vote. In this poll 58% said they were 10/10 certain to vote compared with 46% for the sample as a whole.....This is one poll and there are the usual caveats about sub-sets – though this segment represented 525 people.

...but the challenge for Farage to carry over Euro success into the Westminster poll is demonstrated by this...

...only 20% of this same subset said they would choose UKIP when asked who they’d been voting for at the general election...

This being their most favourable demographic, it presently looks likely that a mid-teen share of the popular vote is more realistic estimate of the GE UKIP share.

Also posted in UKIP thread.

 

[brogdale]

If this Survation Euro polling for London, (change on 2009 %), offers any clue about how the GE will pan out, it looks like Labour won't need much help from UKIP to take the GL marginals...

 

[brogdale]

...and YouGov's national Euro polling for today's 'Sun' provides these numbers:-

LAB 29%, UKIP 28%, CON 22%, LDEM 9%, GREEN 8%.

...the fieldwork was done over several waves of daily polling, so has a chunky sample size of 5000 or so.... Unlike the ComRes and TNS polls earlier this week YouGov still have Labour and UKIP almost neck and neck for first place. Note also the Greens, just a single point behind the Lib Dems in the race for fourth place.

 

[Dogsauce]

The previous two polls were weighted on 'likelihood to vote' - any similar weighting on this one?

LDs beaten into fifth by the greens would be sweet - I suspect greens have better motivated voters too, though I've not noticed any press for them (or anyone else really other than 24hr rolling UKIP).

 

[redsquirrel]

If this Survation Euro polling for London, (change on 2009 %), offers any clue about how the GE will pan out, it looks like Labour won't need much help from UKIP to take the GL marginals...

That's still a pretty good result for UKIP considering that London is one of their weaker areas, similar to the polling data in Scotland.

 

[brogdale]

That's still a pretty good result for UKIP considering that London is one of their weaker areas, similar to the polling data in Scotland.

It is, and Smithson's monthly tracker, (%change MoM), gives them further cheer...

Bad month for the coalition, given that the economic numbers are all being manipulated to correlate with the electoral cycle.

 

[brogdale]

2 GE & 2 Euros from YouGov today (for STimes & Sun)...

The 2015 GE numbers were:-
.... the Sun on Sunday poll has:-

CON 33, LAB 36, LD 10, UKIP 15.

The S Times Westminster voting intentions poll from YouGov:-

CON 33, LAB 36, LD 9, UKIP 15.

and for the Euros the Sun on Sunday poll has:-

UKIP 29, LAB 26, CON 23, LD 10, and GRN 9.

STImes:-

UKIP 29, LAB 28, CON 22, LD 7, and GRN 8. (LDs fifth!)

 

[Dogsauce]

More motivated to vote green if it pushes LDs into fifth.

Is there a risk that such an achievement would cause Clegg to be ejected and then improve their standing with a new leader? I'd rather he remained a liability up to the GE than go sooner.

 

[brogdale]

Crucial stuff from the BES mega-survey...

Professor Jane Green of Manchester University says: “Our data show that more than half of people, 57.6%, intending to vote for UKIP in the May 2014 European Parliament election also intend to vote for UKIP in the 2015 general election, whereas the proportion was half that number at 25.5% in 2009.

“UKIP European Parliament voters are also more decided about how they will vote in the general election next year than they were about the 2010 general election in 2009.

“These findings could have major implications for the UK’s political landscape in 2015 if they are born out in polling stations.”

The fieldwork for this study has been carried out by YouGov.

Forget any 'closing of the gap' with Lab, this will terrify the tories.

 

[treelover]

What happens if UKIP do get some seats in the GE?, they could form a coalition with the Tories, a horrifying prospect.

 

[butchersapron]

The best they can do is 2 or 3 seats, and the wider effect of a good ukip vote is less tory seats nationally. Meaning chances of a tory-UKIP coalition are zero, there's no extra seats being won on the right.

 

[treelover]

Really hope you are right

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

it's nothing to do with butchers being right, the maths just aren't there. The only people talking about UKIP winning more than one or two seats are idiots who don't understand the electoral system.

 

[Quartz]

What happens if UKIP do get some seats in the GE?, they could form a coalition with the Tories, a horrifying prospect.

I'm still holding out for a complete collapse of the traditional parties and a governing UKIP / Green alliance.

 

[killer b]

UKIP / Class War would be better.