Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
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butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Hodge wrote yet another piece that the election is already lost for labour - all the pollers laughed at him, one accused him of being a star example of how to brutally use stats for a short term end. Hodges is nothing, he's like A8 - he just speaks to and for a tight circle. The piece is madness.
Ashcroft has marginal polling coming out after the euros. He's telling Hodges that his view is in big trouble.
Ashcroft has marginal polling coming out after the euros. He's telling Hodges that his view is in big trouble.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Soz. Don't know when spring conf is but ashcroft is committed to releasing the figues pretty much in june/end of may.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Populus' monthly aggregate data for the key national polling numbers on 'switchers'....
Firstly, how are the 2010 coalition voters, (mainly LD obs),switch to Lab numbers holding up?
and then the 2010 coalition voters, (mainly Con obs),switch to UKIP numbers holding up?
Not sure how that shoddy, unfunny PPB from Lab fits into the strategy of retaining the yellow defectors?
Firstly, how are the 2010 coalition voters, (mainly LD obs),switch to Lab numbers holding up?
and then the 2010 coalition voters, (mainly Con obs),switch to UKIP numbers holding up?
Not sure how that shoddy, unfunny PPB from Lab fits into the strategy of retaining the yellow defectors?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Tonight's GE polling:-
Survation for the MailoS...
Lab 33% (-1), Con 28% (-5), UKIP 20% (+2) , LD 10% (+2)
and Opinium for the Obs...
Lab 33% (-1), Con 29% (-3), UKIP 20% (+2), LD 9% (+2).
Hmmm..... two polls putting the vermin in the 20s, as UKIP breaks into the 20s. Just to reiterate, these numbers are Westminster 2015 polling. FTR Survation also has UKIP on 32% in the Euros, 5 points clear of Labour.
e2a: Anthony @ YG has this to say of Opinium & Survation's UKIP numbers...
Survation for the MailoS...
Lab 33% (-1), Con 28% (-5), UKIP 20% (+2) , LD 10% (+2)
and Opinium for the Obs...
Lab 33% (-1), Con 29% (-3), UKIP 20% (+2), LD 9% (+2).
Hmmm..... two polls putting the vermin in the 20s, as UKIP breaks into the 20s. Just to reiterate, these numbers are Westminster 2015 polling. FTR Survation also has UKIP on 32% in the Euros, 5 points clear of Labour.
e2a: Anthony @ YG has this to say of Opinium & Survation's UKIP numbers...
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brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Ashcroft has been hinting at something over the weekend - now we know what:
CON 34%
LAB 32%
LDEM 9%
UKIP 15%.
Need more info on this.
CON 34%
LAB 32%
LDEM 9%
UKIP 15%.
Need more info on this.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Put into "Electoral Calculus" (usual caveats etc.) that gives Lab 16 short of a majority...with 18 LD survivors! Hmmm....
e2a: and UKIP = 0
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
..and Anthony has looked at the methodology....apparently it is, as you would expect of Ashcroft, OK on face value, but subject to the usual MoE etc....
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
free spirit
more tea vicar?
erm, people who say they don't know are allocated to the party they voted for in 2010... can't see how that could possibly benefit the party of government in their poll rating.
Minus 6% is surely a freak Labour rating. Dubious poll? Need to know more.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
I reckon the more plausible a tight Tory victory becomes, the more likely UKIP types will go for them to keep labour out. If it looked like a lost cause more would vote UKIP to show Cameron where he's going wrong. This could boost the Tories further if it holds up.
Imagine another five years of being ruled over by Gove, Hunt, Shapps etc. I know the alternative isn't great, but still.
Imagine another five years of being ruled over by Gove, Hunt, Shapps etc. I know the alternative isn't great, but still.
That assumes UKIP voters are all natural Tories which isn't the case.
But certainly in Tory held marginals they might be more likely to be Tory and prepared to vote tactically against Labour - I'm certainly sure that in many areas in the GE as it becomes Clearwater they won't win more than 1 seat their vote will fall back to around 6%
It does look like we're possibly seeing a poll narrowing here is it because with the proximity of the Euros people are being reminded that Labour are timidly pro-Europe? Admittedly not an important issue but one that is more prominent right now?
But certainly in Tory held marginals they might be more likely to be Tory and prepared to vote tactically against Labour - I'm certainly sure that in many areas in the GE as it becomes Clearwater they won't win more than 1 seat their vote will fall back to around 6%
It does look like we're possibly seeing a poll narrowing here is it because with the proximity of the Euros people are being reminded that Labour are timidly pro-Europe? Admittedly not an important issue but one that is more prominent right now?
The polls are definitely narrowing, I don't see the point of being in denial about it. I'm baffled why though.
Oh I agree they're narrowing just trying to throw some ideas around about why that might be...
Could it be due to Labour finally anouncing some solid policies? The box has been opened and the cat is dead...
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Could be, or it could reflect on Miliband's continuing negative polling/perception, or it could even reflect UKIP's increasingly 'populist' appeal to trad Lab voters, (the other day on R5 I heard a UKIP talking head arguing against the tories proposed higher threshold for strike action on the basis that working peoples' rights and wages require protection and organised labour needs the ultimate 'weapon' of strike action....needless to say no such noises came from the Lab bod), or we could be just looking at the normal poll volatility seen close to real polling.
This graph has one very obvious omission, but it does show that the convergence has more to do with falling Lab polling that rising tory numbers. The vermin look pegged at a % well below that level needed to give them any hope of forming an administration.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
It could be that they were creeping up with the improved economy, then got knocked back with the shambles around the Maria Miller sacking. Now that's been forgotten it could be back to the natural rebound in support. Another tory shambles is never far away so expect more volatility.
Wonder if Labour will panic? The papers will speculate on 'knives being out' at the flimsiest of prompts, won't they?
Wonder if Labour will panic? The papers will speculate on 'knives being out' at the flimsiest of prompts, won't they?
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
yeah it sort of looks like the housing bubble got re-inflated so now ozzie can claim recovery.
The problem is that in many of the seats in London and the South East which Labour need to win back there was never huge evidence of a shit economy anyway and it's easier to believe stories of an economic recovery especially among the people most likely to vote.
I think it will be the West and East Midlands marginals where the real battle takes place in 2015 - this is where floating voters have seen and felt austerity in action.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Improving economy (lets just use that term for now) doesn't straightforwardly translate into tory votes - it's how that improvement is seen as effecting (or not) people and their families, and if it's not helping them, who it is effecting.
On the two crossover polls - we need a week of this to be able to draw any conclusions. What we can say is that they don't show the tory vote rising - instead they remain at a level that will almost ensure they would not win a general election.
On the two crossover polls - we need a week of this to be able to draw any conclusions. What we can say is that they don't show the tory vote rising - instead they remain at a level that will almost ensure they would not win a general election.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
We've just been told that our hours will be increasing from 37.5 to 40 in October, a 6.7% increase. They're offering a 2% pay rise for this change (not pro-rata, so a pay cut). This is on top of a pay freeze we just had in April. This is for a nationwide construction-industry related consultancy.
Recovery my arse.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
As ever, I'd like to know the percentages for don't know / don't care / fuck the lot of them
I suspect the latter coalition is growing stronger all the time.
What is hard to tell is to what extent the fall in labour support is because people don't see the point in voting for yet another tory party, or because people are frightened of 'red ed' and labour is seen as too radical and not enough like the tories.
I know the new-labour machine will interpret it as the latter...
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Let's make sure the fall is real first.
As ever, I'd like to know the percentages for don't know / don't care / fuck the lot of them
I suspect the latter coalition is growing stronger all the time.
What is hard to tell is to what extent the fall in labour support is because people don't see the point in voting for yet another tory party, or because people are frightened of 'red ed' and labour is seen as too radical and not enough like the tories.
I know the new-labour machine will interpret it as the latter...
free spirit
more tea vicar?
I worked for an organisation once and had been invited down to a full staff meeting at head quarters, team building sort of thing for most of the day, then they had a mass meeting about some changes they wanted to make, at which it turned out that because everyone had been racking up too many extra hours and needing more time off in lieu that they wanted to change the standard hours from 40 per week to 45 per week to reflect the hours we were actually working......... but not raise our salaries at all.
I was quite surprised to find that I seemed to be the only person objecting to this change. Left / kicked out within a couple of weeks of this, and found that they refused to pay for the time off in lieu hours accrued as well.
Pretty odd organisation that one, I'm still baffled that nobody else seemed to think it a bit off to add an extra 5 hours to the working week without an increase in salary to match.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yesterday's YG/Sun weekly Westminster poll numbers were:-
Con 34%, Lab 34%, LD 8%, and UKIP 15%.
As Smithson says, this caps a poor week of polling for Lab and he speculates that Lab's poor/minimal focus or message re. the Euro's has knocked on to all polling. He observes that..
but, despite this convergence largely due to Lab poll dipping, the vermin remain well short of any % of the popular vote that would give them another administration. Their 2010 GE share was over 36%, and even that left them short of a majority, so parity on 34% is no good to them...in fact such a result would leave Lab just short of a working Majority by a couple of seats.
Con 34%, Lab 34%, LD 8%, and UKIP 15%.
As Smithson says, this caps a poor week of polling for Lab and he speculates that Lab's poor/minimal focus or message re. the Euro's has knocked on to all polling. He observes that..
but, despite this convergence largely due to Lab poll dipping, the vermin remain well short of any % of the popular vote that would give them another administration. Their 2010 GE share was over 36%, and even that left them short of a majority, so parity on 34% is no good to them...in fact such a result would leave Lab just short of a working Majority by a couple of seats.
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