Political polling

[Quartz]

Far from the fire breathing, tax cutting friend of the upper working\lower middle classes they so crave to be seen as.

UKIP seem to be filling that gap, don't they?

 

[JHE]

From some careful academic poll-watchers:

Regular readers of this blog will know that we are cautious about identifying trends in what is often stable opinion, and also wary of using figures on polling leads, which are subject to more volatility and random variation. The underlying pattern here is however clear – the gap between the top two parties is steadily narrowing. Our main chart suggests this is the product both of rising Conservative support and falling Labour support, and also suggests that this is happening despite no decline in support for UKIP, who many argue are the main cause of recent Conservative weakness

 

[butchersapron]

Large rise for labour lead in this months Obsever/Opinium poll +5%

Lab 36 (+3)
Con 30 (-2)
Ukip 18 (+3)
LD 7% (-3).

Let's see how they spin this one. That's a really ow

 

[butchersapron]

Independent on Sunday have similar figure to the above for all but the rise in labour share, but have same size lead:

CON, 29% (-3)
LAB, 35% (nc)
LD 7%. (-2)
UKIP. 20% (+4)

 

[DotCommunist]

sadly enough, I'm looking forward to what mays euros do to the polls verall. Obviously its a different set of motivations, a different election and ETC but I can't help but think a strong UKIP showing in the euros will affect domestic polls. Nearly 2015 as well. These lot have just been on smash n grab really.

 

[brogdale]

Independent on Sunday have similar figure to the above for all but the rise in labour share, but have same size lead:

CON, 29% (-3)
LAB, 35% (nc)
LD 7%. (-2)
UKIP. 20% (+4)

Hmmm.... highest UKIP number for ComRes...and just look what exposure for Clegg has done...7 %!

 

[butchersapron]

Some interesting student polling, key points:

Liberal Democrats at lowest ebb with students since 2004

YouthSight’s latest polling research finds the Liberal Democrats popularity amongst students at a 10 year low. At their peak (April 2010) the Liberal Democrats were polling 50% of the student vote, while the most recent figures show their student support at 6%

Labour still students top choice

Students are still more likely to vote for Labour than any other party if there were a general election tomorrow. Student polling results are traditionally more variable and more left wing than those of the general public. YouthSight’s most recent wave of results shows that 43% of students would vote Labour, compared to 37% of the general electorate. The pattern is reversed for the Conservatives, who are polling at 33% overall but have only 24% of the student vote.

Scottish students want to remain part of the UK

The polls on Scottish independence are narrowing, with the most recent results the closest yet, placing the Yes vote at 41% and the No vote at 46% [4] . YouthSight’s recent research with Scottish students suggests that they are less supportive of independence than the wider Scottish population, with 37% favoring independence and 58% preferring to stay as part of the UK.

Not sure the figues back up such a definitive reading on that last one.

 

[brogdale]

Some of us on here have been looking at the LD to Lab crossbreak %'s for some time, and it's good to see that Smithson now intends to feature this crucial stat as a weekly tracker feature:-

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/in...rs-to-lab-the-voters-who-form-labours-crutch/

'Labour's crutch' consistently above 30%.

 

[Kaka Tim]

channel 4 have done a focus group on lib dem defectors. Supports the view that will not be going back to nick. Suprised that more research has not been on this - a lot more focus on UKIP. But its this group who will decide the election.

http://www.channel4.com/news/catch-up/display/playlistref/100414

 

[treelover]

Support for Tories falls as post-budget boost is deflated after Maria Miller row
Guardian/ICM polls finds Conservatives down three points at 32%, with Labour on 37%, Lib Dems on 12% and UKip on 11%

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-falls-budget-boost-deflated-maria-miller-row

New poll in the Guardian, apparently no 'budget bounce' or lost anyway.

 

[treelover]

Labour still students top choice
Students are still more likely to vote for Labour than any other party if there were a general election tomorrow. Student polling results are traditionally more variable and more left wing than those of the general public. YouthSight’s most recent wave of results shows that 43% of students would vote Labour, compared to 37% of the general electorate. The pattern is reversed for the Conservatives, who are polling at 33% overall but have only 24% of the student vote.

Apart from the Tory Boys, etc, it is usually quite hard to find students who will admit to voting Conservative.

 

[killer b]

Have you ever tried?

 

[treelover]

In the past, yes.

 

[brogdale]

Much polling from yesterday...

...the new monthly ICM poll for the Guardian......figures are:-

CON 32%(-3), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 12%(nc), UKIP 11%(+2).

...and....the twice-weekly Populus poll had voting intentions of:-

CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 13%. (Tabs here.)

...and....The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Indy is also out tonight......figures there are:-

CON 30%(-1), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 12%(+1).

Also some ICM Euro polling...

European voting intentions.....

CON 25%(nc), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 6%(-3), UKIP 20%(nc), GREEN 6%(-1).

.....other recent European polls have been showing Labour and UKIP in a battle for first place and the Conservatives off in third place. In contrast ICM are still showing UKIP third, and the Lib Dems now equal with the Greens on a measly 6 percent. Why ICM are showing a lower level of European support for UKIP than other pollsters is unclear – there is no obvious methodological reason. ICM weight their European voting intention by likelihood to vote which tends to help UKIP and they include UKIP and the Greens in their European election prompt, so it shouldn’t be a question wording issue. I can only assume it is something to do with the ongoing contrast between the levels of UKIP support recorded in telephone and online polls.

 

[Dogsauce]

UKIP are older, less likely to be on the internet. Probably also more suspicious and private and less likely to answer the phone to strangers or engage with pollers (the whole 'get off my property/get out of my country' thing).

A competent polling company will 'weight' for all this though, so fuck only knows.

 

[butchersapron]

Some london polling in the evening standard today (yougov):



Westminster :

Labour 42% (+5)
Conservative 34% (-1)
Ukip 11% (+10)
LibDems 9% (-13)

London Borough Elections

Labour 40% (+7)
Conservative 34% (+2)
Lib Dems 12% (-10)
UKIP 9% (+8)

 

[Fez909]

Some london polling in the evening standard today (yougov):



Westminster :

Labour 42% (+5)
Conservative 34% (-1)
Ukip 11% (+10)
LibDems 9% (-13)

London Borough Elections

Labour 40% (+7)
Conservative 34% (+2)
Lib Dems 12% (-10)
UKIP 9% (+8)

That's a suspicious looking value. What's the frequency of this poll?

 

[Dogsauce]

Is that selective results, or all that they reported? Can't find it online. Knowing the sympathies of the Standard, any chance that they're putting this out there to highlight the 'Vote UKIP and you'll let Labour in' message?

ETA - I might be unclear here whether the 'Westminster' refers to Westminster City Council (area or political seat(s)), or Westminster parliamentary elections - could you clarify?

 

[Dogsauce]

That's a suspicious looking value. What's the frequency of this poll?

My assumption would be that's based on current poll vs. what was polled at previous election(s) - would make sense with those numbers (massive collapse of lib dems, rise of UKIP who probably didn't stand in a lot of seats last time round).

 

[Fez909]

My assumption would be that's based on current poll vs. what was polled at previous election(s) - would make sense with those numbers (massive collapse of lib dems, rise of UKIP who probably didn't stand in a lot of seats last time round).

Sounds likely, cheers.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

ETA - I might be unclear here whether the 'Westminster' refers to Westminster City Council (area or political seat(s)), or Westminster parliamentary elections - could you clarify?

Westminster in this context means General.

 

[butchersapron]

Yes, to the above, general election and the other questions - don't know when last polled but large UKIP rise and lib-dem collapse indicates long time. Can't find details beyond the general right now. Will post when found them/they're posted.

 

[brogdale]

Not actual polling....but from Smithson's blog...



(as of last night)

 

[butchersapron]

On betting, the lib-dems have come in from 5-1 to 7-2 to be totally wiped out in the euros.

 

[Dogsauce]

I want Warsi or Shapps for the next PM. Imagine the comedy potential. The revolution would happen much faster. Got me any odds on either of those two?

 

[brogdale]

Yesterday's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of:-

CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%.

A rather more typical six point Labour lead after a three pointer yesterday.

Usual source.

 

[brogdale]

Surprised it's as high as 6% tbh....

Support for the Liberal Democrats amongst student voters has slumped catastrophically since the last election, a new poll reveals today.

A poll of 1,200 students in higher education institutions throughout the UK reveals it has fallen from a high of 50 per cent just before the last election, following leader Nick Clegg's first TV debate of the campaign, to just six per cent in the latest poll.

The poll also pushes the party into fourth place among student voters, behind:-

Lab (43%), Con (24%) Greens (14%) - and in danger also of being overtaken by UKIP (5%), (which has seen a rise in support from 2%).

and Anthony @YouGov says the methodology was valid...

Just for the record though, today’s Independent has a properly conducted poll of students by YouthSight(we’ve met them here before, under the name of Opinionpanel). This was a panel based survey amongst undergraduate full-time students, recruited via UCAS and validated through an ac.uk email address, weighted by type of university (Russell, pre-1992, post-1992, specialist), year of study and gender.

Also posted in LD Shit thread.

 

[treelover]

Usual source.

"YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead now just two points, plus highest rating for UKIP since last Nov: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 11%, UKIP 15%
9:55 PM - 17 Apr 2014 "

eh, just seen this one

 

[treelover]

Surprised it's as high as 6% tbh....



and Anthony @YouGov says the methodology was valid...



Also posted in LD Shit thread.

but will they vote?, students seem more disillusioned than for many years.

 

[brogdale]

eh, just seen this one

Oh yeah, there's certainly been some narrowing in the YG polling with recent polling looking more like 2011 numbers than that for much of the last two (mid-term) years....

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention

but the scale of the challenge for the tories is very evident; as I keep on saying...look at the far left of the graph showing what failed to secure them a majority in 2010, and then look how far short they are of even that.