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Political polling

Tonight’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of :-

CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%

...so a second YouGov poll with a somewhat lower Labour lead than of late. Again, could still be margin of error, or perhaps we are seeing the lead narrowing. Time will tell.
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Bernie Gunther said:
Ouch ...

Good thing for the mainstream parties that the Daily Mail can convince their base that hating foreigners will cause public utilities to be renationalised then ...
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...and (Smithson is posting) more polling evidence (from Ipsos MORI)of their 'agenda setting'.....

The tories' dilemma; as 'economic growth' inevitably returns, voter concern slips away to focus on other areas of 'concern', some of which obviously relate to UKIP's position...

upload_2014-1-29_9-38-27.png

....and others that have traditionally drawn voters towards Lab...

upload_2014-1-29_9-40-47.png
 
The Sun's YouGov poll has topline figures of:-

CON 32%, LAB 42%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%.

This is somewhat at odds with the Labour leads of two, three and three points so far this week, though for what it’s worth all four polls would be within the normal margin of error of:-

CON 34, LAB 39, LD 9, UKIP 12,
....
the average of this week’s figures.
Source.
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Not an opinion poll, but some real voters...albeit a small number.

This little local by-election in Lichfield (Micky Fab's constituency...not a marginal...more of a rock-solid tory stronghold) shows a Con held seat going to the LDs! But what might set alarm bells ringing at tory HQ is the fact that they've polled less than Lab & UKIP to come in fourth place.

http://www.lichfielddc.gov.uk/info/...acy/1751/councillor_vacancy_in_chadsmead_ward
 
free spirit said:
50% tax rate?
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Might be, but with polling it's all about the trend...

When an unusual poll comes along I personally rather discount it – more often than not it’ll just be a blip. When the same happens two days in row it gets my attention, but I wouldn’t conclude anything. When you get three in a row I normally take it seriously, it looks as though something is afoot.

But it can still just be random chance. Right now we don’t really know what the position is. It could be that tonight’s poll is an outlier and other polls will continue to show lower leads. Alternatively it could be that actually nothing’s changed and its all just been random variation around the six point lead we’ve had for months. As ever, time will tell.
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Tonight's Sunday Times/ICM "Wisdom Index" poll results are out:-

Labour are believed to win 33% share of the vote if an election were held tomorrow, with the Tories on 31%. The Liberal Democrats (16%) continue to out-perform their conventional poll standing and UKIP are predicted to win 12%.12%

Lab : 33%
Con : 31%
LD : 16%
Ukip: 12%
​
The term "Wisdom" in the poll title relates to the distinctive polling methodology based on the 'wisdom of crowds' notion. Instead of asking for individual vote intentions it asks for "a dispassionate prediction of what the outcome of the election will be". An examination of the methodology and its evaluation in the 2010 GE can be found here.

Martin Boon's commentary includes the following observations...

Over time, there is one feature of the Wisdom trend that is irrefutable – Labour’s predicted share has pretty consistently declined from a high of 39% in May 2012, to pretty much where it stands now (33%). The Conservatives have flat-lined in the 29-32% range, which they will hope to break out of now that positive economic noises are being heard from many quarters....The Liberal Democrats (16%) continue to out-perform their conventional poll standing and UKIP are predicted to win 12%.
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I dislike any notion of 'wisdom' in 'crowds', especially crowds who blame foreigners and benefit claimants for stuff (that's a general observation from me, rather than anything particularly pro-Labour or anything).

But possibly I don't understand that poll or its methodology properly (right now ;) ).
 
Some people are to clever by half ,of all the polling organisations how close were they to the result of a GE.me i will go by butchers he got it right last election:)
 
This week’s YouGov/Sunday Times poll is up here. Topline voting intention figures are:-

CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 11%.

Put alongside the YouGov polls this week that showed Labour leads of two, three, three and ten points this doesn’t really tell us much – it would be in line with a reduced Labour lead of three or four points, or would be in line with not much having changed at all and the lead still being five or six points.

We do however, also have an Opinium poll in the Observer and that had topline figures of:-

CON 29%(-1), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 17%(nc).

Changes are from a fortnight ago and obviously don’t show any sign of Labour’s lead narrowing. Populus’s poll on Friday also had no signs of movement, with topline figures of:-

CON 32%, LAB 37%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%.
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Forgot to post this snippet i spotted elsewhere over the weekend:

For the Sunday Times Messrs Rallings and Thrasher have done an analysis on all the votes in council elections since May, I think their National Equivalent Share of the vote is

Labour 34%, Tories 28%, UKIP 17%, Lib Dems 13%.

In places where it stands, UKIP takes an average 22% of the vote compared with 15% for the Lib Dems.

They say

“The Lib Dems, once the master tacticians of by-elections, are fading fast and are being replaced by UKIP.”
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Interesting graphic from Ipsos MORI....obviously only what folk are telling pollsters....but, nonetheless...

upload_2014-2-5_9-36-15.png

MORI's Roger Mortimer observes:-

“When the Conservatives were able to combine the advantages of opposition with their own natural advantage of drawing their core support from the heavily-voting groups of the public, they had a big lead over Labour in their ability to turn their raw support into votes; now, with Labour reaping the opposition benefits, the two forces work in opposite directions and things are more finely balanced.​

What the change means is that filtering the voting intentions by certainty of voting will have less of a pro-Conservative effect on our headline figures, and sometimes (when the red line in the chart edges above the blue one) may even favour Labour instead…”​
 
Quite an interesting Welsh poll
Roger calculates that if repeated at a Welsh Assembly election Labour would retain 30 seats, so still the tinest whisper short of an overall majority, and UKIP would enter the Assembly for the first time with 5 seats. If the European election intentions were repeated in May Labour would return two MEPs, the Conservatives and UKIP one each, meaning Plaid would lose out.
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No doubt its those Jews with their capitalist ways.
 
brogdale said:
...and (Smithson is posting) more polling evidence (from Ipsos MORI)of their 'agenda setting'.....

The tories' dilemma; as 'economic growth' inevitably returns, voter concern slips away to focus on other areas of 'concern', some of which obviously relate to UKIP's position...

View attachment 47403

....and others that have traditionally drawn voters towards Lab...

View attachment 47404
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nearly 100% increase in concern about immigration in 12 months...Project Hate must be really paying off because there's certainly not been that increase in actual immigration. Interesting that "race relations" is snuck in with that, aren't the martyr myth migration bleaters always insisting that the issues are quite different? Or something.
 
William of Walworth said:
Fair bit of polling consistency generally, atm.
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...and some more (of the same)...

This morning’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of:-

CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%.

At the start of the week YouGov produced an interesting string of seven point Labour leads, but with a four point lead yesterday and a five point lead today it looks as it’s business as usual. Full tabs are here.

Meanwhile the twice weekly poll from Populus has figures of:-

CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%.

Full tabs for those are here.
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...and Smithson (again) points out the consistency of Lab polling and the near Sisyphean task facing the tories in attempting to build parity of seats, let alone a majority.....

The big message....is how constant the LAB figure has been within a range over the two months of 38.4% to 39%.
The Tory share, as the top chart shows, has been much more likely to fluctuate.

  1. Each month that goes by with LAB maintaining its current position is a win for Ed Miliband and the closer we get to May 2015 the more worrying it is for the Tories.
We’ve discussed many times before on PB the huge challenge facing the Tories because of the way the electoral system favours Labour. My reckoning is that the blues could be 3-4% ahead in national vote share and still be behind Labour on the number of seats.

It is just possible to see a pathway to the Tories doing that. What is very difficult to forecast from where we are at the moment is a CON majority.
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Latest YG polling:-

....the weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll is here and has topline figures of:-

CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%.
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the poll also included a question about the coalition's welfare reforms etc...

YouGov repeated a question from last April about the government’s welfare reform package as a whole, freezes, caps, bedroom tax, etc. Back in April 2013 56% of people said they supported them, 31% were opposed. Now 49% support them, 38% are opposed – so still more in support than against, but a significant movement over the last year.
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Still depressing, but an interesting trajectory nonetheless.
 
brogdale said:
Latest YG polling:-



the poll also included a question about the coalition's welfare reforms etc...



Still depressing, but an interesting trajectory nonetheless.
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Its encouraging in that supporting the reforms is a passive 'default' position for most people - they are accepting what they are being told by the most of the media and politicans. To oppose that you have to have an 'active' position - you have to have had direct contact with the reality of whats happening or had to actually find out it out for yourself.

Remember pretty much every day one of the newspapers with be running a smear about benefit scroungers etc.

Also those who oppose the benefit attacks will very likely care a lot more about it than those who passively support it.
 
Not a polling story...but this is an interesting political development....

David Cameron is preparing to fight the next general election on a clear promise to the British people not to form a second coalition government even if he falls short of a Commons majority, The Telegraph has learnt.

The Prime Minister wants to make a commitment in the Conservative Party election manifesto not to sign a second power-sharing deal with a smaller party in the event of a hung parliament next May, it is understood.
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My first reaction is that this signals very clearly Cameron's parlous position within his own party. Having last year attempted to assuage his back benchers with the promise that any further coalition agreement would have to be ratified by the parliamentary party, he has now had to reveal his high-stakes strategy early.

Setting aside the fact that few voters will actually believe Cameron, this gambit does appear to offer some glimmer of hope for the LDs. Cameron is now opening himself up to anti-tory tactical voting in both Con-Lab and Con-LD seats. In the context of polling that stubbornly rejects the view that the tories will get anywhere near a majority...this all smacks of desperation from Cameron.
 
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