Political polling

[brogdale]

Smithson and the BBC (with scary pic below) today alighting on marginals.

How do you know you are living in a marginal constituency?

One clue is when you get a surprise visit from a top politician

...but the BBC interactive graphic map thing is quite good.

And, of course, most of us posting in here would recognise that national polling is mostly froth compared to the really detailed psephological work undertaken by (C)Ashcroft. Smithson quotes Survation's patrick brione..

.....Lord Ashcroft’s and Survation’s constituency polls is exactly the same. The Conservatives are significantly underperforming their national average across key marginal seats,...

but then Smithson states that he is uncertain why there appears to be such a discrepancy between the national and marginal polling...

I find the gap between the national and marginals almost inexplicable for as it stands at the moment we should be adding about 5 points to the LAB lead in national polling to get a picture of what is happening in terms of seats changing hands.

What is going on?

....and then goes on to explain it....

As I’ve pointed out before the Ashcroft polling found more than double the proportion of 2010 LDs had switched to LAB compared with his national comparison poll.
What the marginals polling does do is to try to get respondents to think specifically about their local situation. This would cover dynamics such as incumbency and tactical voting. Ashcroft has a two part voting question to highlight this.

Whatever he may think, (C)Ashcroft's (& Survation's) polling show that the inevitable closing in the national polling that will occur in the next year towards 2015 needs to be seen in the context of what is actually happening in the 100 or less seats that will determine the outcome.

 

[Quartz]

but then Smithson states that he is uncertain why there appears to be such a discrepancy between the national and marginal polling...

I've just read on the BBC - in that same article - that in 2010 Luton South was one of the most keenly contested seats. If the experience I had was typical, the Tories wasted their money whereas the Lib Dems campaigned very effectively. There was a lot more personal attention from the Lib Dems, but just a couple of flyers from the Tories. The Tories needed to get out there and campaign, rather than lazily assume the votes would come their way. OTOH the Tories may have had me marked as one of their own and not bothered with me. Their loss. Luton South was a seat with an odd dymamic in that IME many voters were anti-Labour due to Margaret Moran's shenanigans, and the anti-Labour vote ended up being split, allowing the Labour candidate to win. My current constituency, Aberdeen South, is a marginal. The Labour vote is pretty solid at ~15K but the opposition vote is split between the Lib Dems and the Tories, with the SNP trailing. A collapse in the Lib Dem vote could see the Tories win, or vice versa, but I've heard nothing from either party in the 3 years I've been here.

 

[butchersapron]

YouGov euro-elections poll - tories have never not finished in top two in any national election - lib-dems likely to be wiped out on these figures as well.

LAB 32%
UKIP 26%
CON 23%
LDEM 9%

 

[brogdale]

....and last night’s YouGov voting intention figures – topline figures are:-

CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%.

There was a three point YouGov lead yesterday, but today’s figures are far more representative of recent YouGov polls, which on average have been showing a six point lead.

Source

 

[brogdale]

Back to the Euro election polling....From the Guardian....

According to the Sun these results, on a uniform swing, would give:-

Labour 28 MEPs (up 15), Ukip 23 (up 10), the Conservatives 15 (down 11) and the Lib Dems none (down 11).

Clegg said the European elections would be "tough" for the party.

But he said the poll figures would not stop the Lib Dems speaking up for Europe.

 

[brogdale]

YouGov's Anthony has more analysis on that projected Euro election LD 'wipe-out', and an explanation of the methodology behind the polling:-

Worth noting is if these were the results there is a chance that the Lib Dems could be wiped out. On a uniform swing this give Labour 28 MEPs, UKIP 23 MEPs, the Conservatives 15, the Greens 1, SNP 2, Plaid 1 (and three in Northern Ireland). In practice it would be very close, who gets the final seat in constituencies with a large number of MEPs can come down to fractions of percentage points and the Lib Dems would just miss out in the South East and South West, but a wipe out is a realistic possibility. (The reason, if you are wondering, for the slightly odd suggestion that the Greens could get a seat with far fewer votes than the Lib Dems is because the strongest Green region is the South East and the Lib Dems strongest region is the South West – you need fewer votes to win a seat in the South East).

Finally, for methodology anoraks amongst you, YouGov’s question prompts for all the parties in the European Parliament – so including UKIP, Green and the BNP. This is a change from 2009 that we pondered for a while. In 2004 YouGov prompted for all the parties, and overestimated UKIP support. In 2009 we only prompted for Con, Lab, Lib Dem and SNP/PC and got UKIP pretty much right (our last poll had them on 18%, in the event they got 17%). However, given they came second last time (and on that basis the broadcast media will presumably be required to give them as much coverage as Labour and the Conservatives during the run up to the election), and the media focus is very likely to be on how well UKIP do and whether they win, we thought it more appropriate to put them in the main prompt for the European elections. Peter Kellner has written more about it here.

 

[brogdale]

Polls, polls, polls....fill yer boots!

Populus’s twice weekly poll has topline voting intention figures of:-

CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 9%.

Full tabs are here.

and....

Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for the Evening Standard has topline figures of:-

CON 30%(-3), LAB 39%(+2), LDEM 13%(+4), UKIP 11%(+1).

and...

YouGov’s daily voting intention poll for the Sun has topline figures of:-

CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%

(full tabs are here.

AND.......

Sky News have a Survation poll with topline figures of:-

CON 30%(-1%), LAB 34%(-1%), LDEM 12%(+1%), UKIP 18%(+2).

Full tabs for that are here

That enough for yer?

e2a : and....
a Four poll average:

Con 31.3%
Lab 38.0%
UKIP 12.5%
Lib 12.0%

 

[shagnasty]

Smithson and the BBC (with scary pic below) today alighting on marginals.

...but the BBC interactive graphic map thing is quite good.

And, of course, most of us posting in here would recognise that national polling is mostly froth compared to the really detailed psephological work undertaken by (C)Ashcroft. Smithson quotes Survation's patrick brione..



but then Smithson states that he is uncertain why there appears to be such a discrepancy between the national and marginal polling...



....and then goes on to explain it....



Whatever he may think, (C)Ashcroft's (& Survation's) polling show that the inevitable closing in the national polling that will occur in the next year towards 2015 needs to be seen in the context of what is actually happening in the 100 or less seats that will determine the outcome.

Hendon where i live the tories won by 100 votes ,so i expect labour to be out in force on my estate and nearby graheme park i don't expect any big names to knock on my door ,but being politician am very likely to tell them to fuckoff

 

[killer b]

this is amazing.

it's made me laugh more than anything else i've seen today.

 

[brogdale]

Two new polls today; the monthly online ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror with topline figures with changes from December’s online poll:-

CON 30%(+1), LAB 35%(-1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 19%(+1).

...and the Opinium figures in the Observer are:-

CON 30%(nc), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 17%(nc)

Source

 

[brogdale]

YouGov’s weekly poll for the Sunday Times is up here. Topline figures are:-

CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%.

Good job/bad job ratings for the leaders are minus 15 for Cameron, minus 35 for Miliband, minus 51 for Clegg.

More interesting evidence of how the tories' manipulated economic "recovery" is percieved by the electorate:-

On the economy there is a big contrast between people’s attitudes to the economy as a whole, and their own personal circumstances. On the wider economy there is optimism – 36% of people think things are better than a year ago, 24% worse. Ask about people’s own finances and only 14% think they are better off than a year ago, 39% think they are worse off. Asked about the year ahead, only 17% think their own household’s finances will get better, 37% think they’ll get worse. People are pessimistic, but it’s a measure of how bad things were (and how things are turning round) that this minus twenty net score is the best so far this Parliament.

I think that turning this "oil tanker" pessimism around is going to be as great an electoral challenge for the tories as the 'kippers are. Fighting on 3 fronts, eh?

 

[brogdale]

12.28pm GMT

For the record, here are the latest YouGov GB polling figures.

Lab: 40% (up 1 ), Con: 32% (down 1), UKIP: 12% (down 1), LD: 11% (up 3)

(Changes from YouGov in the Sunday Times)

Labour lead: 8 points (up 2)

Government approval: -29 (down 5)

According to Electoral Calculus, this would give Labour a majority of 98.

Only 1 poll, but that LD figure seems slightly anomolous given.....

 

[butchersapron]

I think we now can conclude that remaining lib-dem voters are horrible sexists and facilitators of harassment and oppression.

 

[brogdale]

I think we now can conclude that remaining lib-dem voters are horrible sexists and facilitators of harassment and oppression.

It is somewhat staggering that 1 in every 10 folk who can be bothered to engage with the charade of rep.dem. are still contemplating a vote for this shower. Extraordinary, really.

 

[butchersapron]

It is somewhat staggering that 1 in every 10 folk who can be bothered to engage with the charade of rep.dem. are still contemplating a vote for this shower. Extraordinary, really.

Luckily there are a dwindling number of seats where their vote will make the slightest of difference to the result.

 

[butchersapron]

The Tories are edging closer to defeat

The public’s mood currently is settled into a steady state, with support split across four parties and Labour holding a modest, but consistent lead. Neither the economic recovery, nor the A2 migration “crisis”, nor the various much trumpeted policy initiatives floated by government and opposition have yet had any discernible impact.

As polling day gets closer, the ticking clock will loom larger in the parties’ minds, too. If the Conservatives poll share remains static as evidence of a robust economic recovery continues to pile up, pressure will build on David Cameron and George Osborne. Conservative backbenchers and activists who currently shower them with plaudits for the return of growth will soon turn against them if this growth does not deliver new voters. In particular, the tensions arising from Ukip’s continued double digit polling will only worsen, as the party divides between those who insist success requires imitating Nigel Farage and stealing his proposals, and those who worry that “out Ukip-ing Ukip” is impossible and damaging to the Conservatives’ credibility with moderate voters. Conversely, on the Labour benches, each successive month of steady leads will calm the nerves of those worried about Ed Miliband’s weak personal poll ratings, and anxious that the economic recovery undermines the credibility of the party’s focus on the “cost of living crisis”. Dissenters within the party are unlikely to raise their voices when they risk jeopardising a small but sufficient lead in polling, and each month of relative unity and harmony will help Labour’s image as a credible governing alternative, particularly if the Conservatives are wracked by conflicts over Ukip and Brussels.

 

[treelover]

this is amazing.

it's made me laugh more than anything else i've seen today.

Brown has lost a lot of weight and he looks very content, though of course he gets his wack without even going to the HOP.

 

[brogdale]

Brown has lost a lot of weight and he looks very content, though of course he gets his wack without even going to the HOP.

If you're referring to that pic, it's from 2010.

As is this:-

 

[Favelado]

If you're referring to that pic, it's from 2010.

As is this:-

"A-haaaaaaaaaaaa!"

 

[brogdale]

I'm always drawn to blog posts with maps....but this post on Political Betting must rank as one of its most useless ....to save you from wasting any time clicking it, here are the opening and closing lines:-

....who will actually decide the next election – Everyone, of course, but realistically the voters in the most marginal seats. Who are they, where are they, and what can we find out about them?
.....


So what have we have found out? Nothing that particularly stands out....

And the map? Here it is....

..which is great, if you're not at all interested in the 7 of the 100 most marginal that lie in Scotland or N.Ireland.

 

[brogdale]

Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 24th January :-

Con 32%, Lab 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%

Lab lead back up to 7%

Looking at the tabs, (here), the UKIP '% damage by party share (2010) is still showing Con 18%, LD 10% and Lab 5%, with the 'kippers strongest regional showing in the Midlands & North where many key marginals lie.

 

[Combustible]

Looking at the tabs, (here), the UKIP '% damage by party share (2010) is still showing Con 18%, LD 10% and Lab 5%, with the 'kippers strongest regional showing in the Midlands & North where many key marginals lie.

There seems to be a particularly bizarre set of questions on page 14 for a political poll

 

[brogdale]

There seems to be a particularly bizarre set of questions on page 14 for a political poll

View attachment 47230

Whilst they've got their panel engaged they do often ask all sorts of questions for clients; not just politics.

 

[Combustible]

That makes sense. I was a bit surprised that a representative sample for a political poll is also applicable for other things but I suppose the sample already takes into account the things necessary for a lot of clients.

 

[brogdale]

Couple of polls last night showing a narrowed Labour lead:-

The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent..... has topline figures of:-

CON 32% (nc), LAB 33%(-4), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 14%(+4).

The one point Labour lead is the lowest ComRes have shown in their phone polls since January 2012, and its the lowest level of Labour support they’ve shown since the government’s honeymoon in the summer of 2010. Meanwhile the Sun politics team have tweeted the daily YouGov poll. That too shows the Labour lead down, in this case to two points:-

CON 35%, LAB 37%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%.

That’s the lowest YouGov lead since December.
​

A good commentary from Anthony:-

As ever, unusual results demand particular caution. Sure, it could be the sign of a narrowing of Labour’s lead, but just as likely it could the random variation that affects all polls. There is a temptation to assume that a movement in the polls after an event – in this case Labour’s 50p tax pledge – is a response to that effect. Labour announce a policy, the next few polls show their lead collapsing – cause and effect. I would urge restraint. At first glance this looks like an obvious and appealing narrative, but it’s a human weakness to look for patterns of this type even when they aren’t there.

Firstly, while ComRes and YouGov happened to both be published at 10pm and show a similar pattern, they aren’t the only polls published today. Populus’s Monday poll was also conducted after the 50p pledge, at roughly the same time as ComRes, and they show Labour’s lead still at seven points. Even without that, we know polls jump about from day to day, YouGov have already shown a couple of 3 point leads this month that turned out to just be normal sample variation.

Equally initial polling showed that the 50p pledge was popular. Now, the reality is rather more complicated than that – a popular policy may play to a party’s wider weaknesses, could risk making Labour look anti-business, or the consequential criticisms from business leaders could have damaged their support. Nevertheless, I’d be surprised if the announcement of a broadly popular policy had backfired that badly.

We’ll have more polls in the coming days – not least we’ll know if YouGov’s daily polls are really showing the lead dropping or if today’s is just a blip. Of course, it could be that other polling does echo these findings and we do conclude that the 50p pledge went horribly wrong, it could be these are just part of a more gentle decline in Labour’s lead that has no link to the 50p pledge at all, it could be that tomorrow’s polls show things back to normal and today was merely a couple of freak results. Wait a couple of days before making a fuss about what could just be a co-incidence.

 

[butchersapron]

Would not be panicking if i was labour.

 

[brogdale]

Would not be panicking if i was labour.

Not with the 'kippers holding firm in the low teens!

 

[savoloysam]

Would not be panicking if i was labour.

I would (not that I think they will be much better) the pre election engineering is well under way and so far it's not going well for them. Also *if* Scotland votes for Independance. Labour's days as a force in this country could well be over.

 

[butchersapron]

I would (not that I think they will be much better) the pre election engineering is well under way and so far it's not going well for them. Also *if* Scotland votes for Independance. Labour's days as a force in this country could well be over.

What are the indicators that it's not going well for them? Why is it not going well for them?

 

[brogdale]

Smithson has been tweeting some of the ComRes (ITV) poll findings in the light of the ONS economy data:-



and...



As said upthread....the "voteless recovery" ?