Political polling

[brogdale]

IpsosMORI's latest 'Westminster' poll for the standard has Lab back in lead, but the whole thing looks a bit Euro-influenced...I mean Greens +5!

Topline figures show Labour still ahead, but their lead falling :–

CON 31%(nc), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 11%(-4), GREEN 8%(+5).

I don’t have a decent spreadsheet of historical trend data for the Greens, but that is likely their highest level of Green support for some time, presumably a result of the publicity from the European elections.

 

[butchersapron]

Back to normals then:

Today's Populus online poll has:
LAB 36 (nc)
CON 32 (-3)
LD 10 (+2)
UKIP 13 (nc)

 

[brogdale]

Back to normals then:

Today's Populus online poll has:
LAB 36 (nc)
CON 32 (-3)
LD 10 (+2)
UKIP 13 (nc)

and, amongst a slew of weekend polling, tonight's monthly ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror has a similar Lab lead with topline voting figures of:-

CON 29%(nc), LAB 33%(-2), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 19%(-1), Others 11%.

That represents a slight reduction in the Labour lead since the last ComRes online a month ago, but still a comfortable lead.

 

[treelover]

Is 4% a year before a GE a comfortable lead?

 

[brogdale]

Is 4% a year before a GE a comfortable lead?

Who knows what may happen over the next year, but if that polling translated into popular vote Lab would have an overall majority of 46 seats. Comfortable?

 

[treelover]

Ok, tx

 

[brogdale]

Staines has posted this graphic of the latest Euro polling from the big 5 pollsters....

The discrepancy between yesterday's Com Res and ICM polls is very obvious and even the usually reliable Anthony at YG has struggled to fully explain differences, but he does offer some clues about what might have contributed to the stark difference...

I expect some readers will be hoping for some explanation for the gap between these polls. I’m afraid I don’t have a simple one to offer. Some of it might be down to ComRes using a very strict turnout filter, taking only those respondents who said they were 10/10 certain to vote, something which has tended to help UKIP. ICM’s tables aren’t yet available, so I don’t know for sure what they’ve done with turnout, but if their last online Euro poll is any guide they weighted by turnout (so people who say they are 10/10 certain to vote are counted in full, people who say they are 9/10 certain to vote are counted as only 0.9 of a vote, and so on down). That would still help UKIP, but not as much as a strict 10/10 only policy. However, that really can’t explain the whole of a ten point difference in UKIP support.

 

[nino_savatte]

It seems as though the Tories lead in the polls was akin to an amyl nitrate (poppers) buzz: it doesn't last very long and you wonder what the fuck happened.

 

[Balbi]

It seems as though the Tories lead in the polls was akin to an amyl nitrate (poppers) buzz: it doesn't last very long and you wonder what the fuck happened.

Combined with a slight worry that you might have shit yourself

 

[JTG]

Your ears go a bit hot and you end up with a headache?

 

[butchersapron]

Combined with a slight worry that you might have shit yourself

That was just Seymour.

 

[brogdale]

A little bit more amyl for the vermin...

This morning’s Populus online poll became the third pollster in a week to show The Conservatives ahead, it is also the first online pollster to show the Blues ahead since March 2012.

Con 35 (+3), Lab 34 (-2), LD 8 (-2), UKIP 14 (+1).

As Smithson says....

For Labour, whilst this polling maybe disheartening, all the polls that have shown the Cons ahead, Lab would still be the largest party in Parliament, and more than likely, Ed would still be PM, as the Cons need to 6-7% ahead to stop a net loss of seats to Labour.

All eyes will be on Lord Ashcroft’s phone poll which will be out at 4pm today.

 

[brogdale]

...and that 2nd weekly Ashcroft poll...

Con 29% (-5), Lab 35% (+3), LD 9% (-), UKIP 14% (-1).

 

[butchersapron]

Lol

I wonder why he went quiet. Wait for the marginals.

 

[butchersapron]

I haven't picked through this myself (Ashcroft i mean) but someone i trust on polling data has. They say that the lib-dems are on 9% but 66% of that 9% are open to voting other than lib-dem. There is no solidity to that 9% - it can only rest on local reputation etc.

 

[HST]

I haven't picked through this myself (Ashcroft i mean) but someone i trust on polling data has. They say that the lib-dems are on 9% but 66% of that 9% are open to voting other than lib-dem. There is no solidity to that 9% - it can only rest on local reputation etc.

Very interesting. I'm sure the lib dems will hang on in their rural strongholds but I hope to see them destroyed as a national party.

 

[brogdale]

I haven't picked through this myself (Ashcroft i mean) but someone i trust on polling data has. They say that the lib-dems are on 9% but 66% of that 9% are open to voting other than lib-dem. There is no solidity to that 9% - it can only rest on local reputation etc.

Yeah...swot it says...but, then again, they're all quite large %s....but, yeah...66% potential waverers....will terrify the LDs.

 

[HST]

My nearest lib-dem council is Sutton. I can't see that changing. http://www.suttonguardian.co.uk/new...pare_the_parties_seeking_your_vote_in_Sutton/

 

[brogdale]

My nearest lib-dem council is Sutton. I can't see that changing. http://www.suttonguardian.co.uk/new...pare_the_parties_seeking_your_vote_in_Sutton/

No, something really quite extraordinary would have to occur for the LDs to lose Sutton....

I suppose the tories might pick a few more seats in S&W of the borough, but with 'kipper candidates likely to hoovering up some 'natural' tory voters I doubt much will change tbh.

 

[brogdale]

ComRes' 'final' Euro poll....

ComRes have released what they say is their final poll before the European elections on Thursday. Topline figures are:-

CON 20%, LAB 27%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 33%, GRN 6%.

The lead for UKIP is far more modest than the eleven points in their weekend poll, but is still pretty robust. The Conservatives remain in third place, the Lib Dems and Greens continue to battle for fourth place. Tabs here.

Anthony then goes on to look at how the various weighting/filtering has produced different numbers....and using the 6 sets of figures to (very unscientifically) produce a mean across the range...here are the 'poll of polls'...

CON 22%, LAB 28%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 28%, GRN 8%...

so still neck and neck for the popular vote % victory and fourth place.

 

[Dogsauce]

Greens beating Clegg would be very funny, I want to see that happen.

 

[brogdale]

Greens beating Clegg would be very funny, I want to see that happen.

Yes. Unfortunately The latest Euro poll from TNS doesn't differentiate the 'others' so we can't see the Green number.

We have another final European poll, this time from TNS. Their topline figures for European voting intention are:-

CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 31%, OTHER 13%

– much closer than their previous poll which had a nine point lead for UKIP. It’s based on only those certain to vote, but from a four-point verbal scale rather than a 0-10 scale, so it’s not as strict a filter.

 

[brogdale]

Tonight's Survation poll carries a stat that will worry 'the political establishment'....

 

[SpineyNorman]

Tonight's Survation poll carries a stat that will worry 'the political establishment'....

That's got to fuck the Tories hardest surely, given that UKIP tend to take votes off labour in safer seats?

 

[brogdale]

That's got to fuck the Tories hardest surely, given that UKIP tend to take votes off labour in safer seats?

Yes.

 

[treelover]

UKIP is still on course to win the European elections despite Nigel Farage’s catastrophic week, a Daily Mirror poll reveals.
The forecast is a huge blow to David Cameron, who sees his Tory party slump to third place with 24 hours before voters to go until the polls.
Our survey puts UKIP at 32% with Labour closest behind on 27%.
The Conservatives – clear winners in the 2009 European elections – are set for a dismal third spot with 23%.
Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems are fourth on 9%.
UKIP’s support continues to surge despite a torrid week for Mr Farage, branded a “racist” for saying he would not have Romanians as neighbours.
He suffered another setback when he pulled out of an event in Croydon and his local candidate branded the South London suburb “a dump”.
But the calamities do not appear to have dented his party’s popularity and they remain set to be the largest party at the European elections on Thursday.
Labour will be buoyed by pulling ahead again in the battle for the general election. They lead the Tories by 34% to 28%, with UKIP on 20%.


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-still-course-win-european-3578631#ixzz32IcJ57RE
Follow us: @DailyMirror on Twitter | DailyMirror on Facebook

Daily Mirror final poll: for Euro elections, Ukip first with 32%, L/P, 27% claims Tories will be third.

 

[CNT36]

Yes. Unfortunately The latest Euro poll from TNS doesn't differentiate the 'others' so we can't see the Green number.

Some guff about that on the Guardian site yesterday- http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/20/green-party-support-media-ukip

 

[Quartz]

It's pissing down here at the moment which won't help the turnout.

 

[butchersapron]

It's pissing down here at the moment which won't help the turnout.

I think you still have some explaining to do elsewhere chimp.

 

[butchersapron]

Big Ashcroft poll of marginals released later today.