Political polling

[butchersapron]

Ashcroft has his new weekly poll out today
LAB (31%)
CON (29%)
UKIP (17%)
LD (8%)

Within that though:

18% of swing voters say they are: moving "towards" Cons, 58% away.
Labour 22% towards -53% away
Lib Dems 10% towards 63% away

That backs up the marginal polling favourable to labour last week and suggests the lib-dems hole has not yet been dug deep enough.

 

[King Biscuit Time]

I'd be really interested in seeing a study that would provide some demographic info about those that didn't vote last Thursday. In fact, you could work out some basic stats if you know anything about who did vote. Has anyone done any polling on that yet?

 

[brogdale]

Smithson looking at 'kipper underestimation in single-seat polling....

1. 
   It is important to recall that all the polls in that contest, as the chart shows, understated the purples by quite some margin. None of them had UKIP any higher than third place.

It was a similar pattern in Corby in November 2012 when the Tories were trying to hang on to the seat following Louise Mensch’s decision to quit politics. The final Ashcroft poll had UKIP on just 6% – they ended up on 14.3%.

By-elections, of course, are susceptible to late swings which is what can make them so exciting. But I believe there are other methodological reasons why the polls have struggled with UKIP in by-elections in particular the reallocation of don’t knows or refusers to what they said they did at the previous general election.

I’ve been in correspondence with Lord Ashcroft about tomorrow’s Newark poll and have suggested that he highlights the pre-reallocated numbers. At Eastleigh that would have got his final poll a bit nearer to what UKIP achieved.

Ashcroft's tomorrow!

(Also posted in Mercer thread.)

 

[butchersapron]

Ashcroft national polling - accidentally posted in newark thread:



LAB - 34% (+3)
CON - 25% (-4)
UKIP - 19% (+2)
LDEM - 6% (-2)

Blimey.

 

[brogdale]

6

 

[brogdale]

Tories 25% = lowest share of national poll since Dec 2001...apparently.

 

[brogdale]

and this morning’s Populus poll had figures of:-

CON 32%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%.

While that doesn’t look notable at first sight, Populus tend to show some of the lowest Labour leads, so five points is actually the largest they’ve shown since February.

Source.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Ashcroft national polling - accidentally posted in newark thread:



LAB - 34% (+3)
CON - 25% (-4)
UKIP - 19% (+2)
LDEM - 6% (-2)

Blimey.

Have you got a link for that mate? most recent one I can find went on UK polling report on 27 May (and I think that was a couple of days old cos the guy said he'd been laid up) - figures were: CON 29%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%

 

[butchersapron]

Have you got a link for that mate? most recent one I can find went on UK polling report on 27 May (and I think that was a couple of days old cos the guy said he'd been laid up) - figures were: CON 29%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%

Sure thing.

 

[killer b]

it's on the appropriately named website lordashcroftpolls.com

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/06/ashcroft-national-poll-con-25-lab-34-ld-6-ukip-19/

 

[killer b]

and yougov weighs in: LAB 36% CON 30% UKIP 17% LIBDEM 8%

 

[brogdale]

and yougov weighs in: LAB 36% CON 30% UKIP 17% LIBDEM 8%

UKIP's 17% equals their previous record YG high of May 2013 following the county council elections.

 

[brogdale]

Today's Opinium Westminster poll...

Lab 35% (+2), Con 31% (-1), UKIP 19% (0), LD 6% (-1).

Labour’s lead appears to be widening, UKIP’s support appears to be solid, whilst for the Lib Dems they hit their lowest share with this pollster since July 2013. The fieldwork was before the Newark by-election.[/QUOTE]

 

[brogdale]

The YouGov/Sunday Times poll is here and also has a four point Labour lead:-

CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%.

 

[brogdale]

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 11th June :-

Con 34%, Lab 36%, LD 6%*, UKIP 14%

* = lowest ever YG % for LDs

 

[brogdale]

ComRes for IoS:-

Lab 34% (+1), Con 32% (+3), UKIP 18% (-1), LD 7% (-1), Gr 4% (0).

Another 2% gap and sub 10% LD poll.

 

[shagnasty]

ComRes for IoS:-

Lab 34% (+1), Con 32% (+3), UKIP 18% (-1), LD 7% (-1), Gr 4% (0).

Another 2% gap and sub 10% LD poll.

Is 4% for the greens quite high their catching up with libdems

 

[brogdale]

YG's Sunday Westminster polling...

There are two YouGov polls in the Sunday papers – one for the Sunday Times (tabs here) and one for the Sun on Sunday (tabs here). Voting intention figures are:-

CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%

and

CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14% respectively.

On the economy...

Looking at the economy first, the proportion of people thinking the economy is improving continues to tick upwards. 49% now think the economy is showing signs of recover (34%) or is on its way to full recovery (15%). This is also translating into people being more likely to think that the government are doing a good job running the economy – 45% now think they are doing well at managing the economy, 44% badly. Just a one percent net positive, but the first time the government have managed a positive since way back in November 2010.

However, at a personal level the public are still pessimistic. More people still expect to be worse off next year than better off (by 34% to 18%), and asked about their own local area in the Sun on Sunday poll people still think there are fewer jobs, people have less money to spend and the shops are less busy.

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft's latest monthly Westminster poll sees the Lab>Con lead widen again as UKIP recede...

The latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll has just been published and the numbers have a more familiar ring to them. UKIP is down from the dizzy heights of 19% that they chalked up in the immediate aftermath of their EP14 success. The LDs are up from the miserable 6% they were on at the end of May.

But it’s the gap between LAB and CON that really matters and although the blues are up the red team is up a bit more.

When the Ashcroft poll was launched at the start of May the Tories had a 2% lead so today’s numbers are something of a reverse.

 

[butchersapron]

That ashcroft lib dem tory marginals poll is being released Thursday.

 

[Dogsauce]

With the football being on, has he picked a good day to bury bad news maybe?

 

[butchersapron]

Ashcroft tory/lib-dem marginals:

Across the Tory-Lib Dem battleground I found the Conservative vote share down 8 points since 2010 to 33% – but the Lib Dems down by nearly twice that, falling 15 points to 28%. Labour were up 5 points on their general election performance to 14% in these seats, and UKIP up 14 points to 18%.

Even on this more realistic formulation, the results amount to an effective 3.5% swing from the Lib Dems to the Tories since 2010. This would be enough for the Conservatives to unseat 15 Lib Dem MPs if this were to happen across the board next May.

But UKIP are not just a problem for the Tories. Those who voted Lib Dem at the last election were as likely to say they would switch to UKIP (13%) as to say they would switch to Labour (13%). A further 11% said they intended to vote Conservative. The party is literally losing votes right, left and centre.

Not got time to dig any deeper right now.

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft tory/lib-dem marginals:







Not got time to dig any deeper right now.

Lot's in there, but Ashcroft is quite sensibly heavy on the caveat this time...

....the results amount to an effective 3.5% swing from the Lib Dems to the Tories since 2010. This would be enough for the Conservatives to unseat 15 Lib Dem MPs if this were to happen across the board next May.

But one big lesson from this research is not to assume any kind of uniform swing where the Lib Dems are concerned. The swing to the Tories was as high as 9% in Newton Abbot, but in the Lib Dem-held seats of Cheadle, Eastleigh and Sutton & Cheam the swing was in the other direction. There was also no straightforward regional pattern. Though swings were generally less favourable to the Tories in urban and suburban seats, in Cornwall they ranged from 2.5% (St Ives) to 8% (Truro & Falmouth). The swing to the Conservatives in Wells (3%) was less than half than in neighbouring Somerton & Frome (7.5%).

 

[butchersapron]

 

[J Ed]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8884

The monthly ComRes telephone poll is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 32%(-3), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 18%(+4). Changes are since the last ComRes telephone poll, just before the European election.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. The two point Labour lead there is the lowest that YouGov have shown for about a fortnight, but again, not beyond the normal margin or error for an average lead of four points or so.

Two polls showing a reduced Labour lead of two points, plus the Ashcroft poll showing a Tory lead. There will be a temptation to interpret this as a “Juncker effect”. On the other hand Populus’s poll this morning had a four point Labour lead, the changes in ComRes are month-on-month, so don’t need to be related to the last couple of days and there’s really nothing here yet that couldn’t be normal sample variation. For now I would’t read too much into it.

 

[butchersapron]

Lots of volatility in the ashcroft polling recent - today is:

CON 27
LAB 35
LD, 7
Ukip 17
GRN 7

Underlying message is tories in big trouble with lack of sustained lead or clear deficits.

 

[brogdale]

After a bit of break, (in here), some interesting national polling...

Today's Populus and Ashcroft nationals both show Lab leads over falling %'s for the vermin....

Ashcroft's appears to show UKIP gains hurting the tory scum again.

Meanwhile Smithson has been busy plotting the LD -> Lab %'s and finds a remarkable consistency across the past year...

As Prof John Curtice says...

“..basically the reason why the Labour party is in the lead is because of the loss of Liberal Democrat support to Labour. It goes all the way back to 2010 and it’s not obvious that it’s going to go back anytime soon…

..I see no reason why the general election should result in a transfer of voters back from Labour to the Liberal Democrats unless there is a severe decline in Labour’s ability to offer anything. Because in a sense those Liberal Democrat voters that are going to Labour are primarily there because of push rather than pull..”

 

[brogdale]

Lots of volatility in the ashcroft polling recent - today is:

CON 27
LAB 35
LD, 7
Ukip 17
GRN 7

Underlying message is tories in big trouble with lack of sustained lead or clear deficits.

Snap!

Yes, Cameron's 're-shuffle' was clearly an attempt to shape the succession; they know they're gonna lose.

 

[butchersapron]

Ashcroft polling on CON/Lab ultra-marginals - summary:

In my latest round of battleground research I have returned to the fourteen Conservative-held seats with Labour in second place that I first polled in the spring. The most striking feature is that rising support for UKIP has eroded the swing to Labour. Though the Tories are down a point on their share in March and April in these seats, Labour are down by three points and UKIP are up five.

There are three points worth noting about this. First, the most immediately striking effect of this shift is that UKIP now lead in two seats – Thurrock and Thanet South. They have also jumped to second in Great Yarmouth, where the Tories are now ahead, having been behind Labour in my previous round of polling.

Second, it means that UKIP’s national vote share is not the most useful guide to their prospects at the election. Though they score 21% across this battleground, their vote in these seats ranges from 9% in Hendon to 31% in Great Yarmouth, 33% in Thanet South and 36% in Thurrock. We will see whether the party can sustain this level of support in these constituencies for another ten months. But with Nigel Farage planning to concentrate his party’s resources in just 25 targets, UKIP’s impact is likely to be felt in a series of local contests to which their headline vote share may bear little relation.

And third, it means that if UKIP’s vote share erodes between now and the election, the Conservatives are unlikely to be the only beneficiaries.

As for the Liberal Democrats, their 4% share on this battleground represents an 11-point drop since 2010. If these results were repeated next May the Lib Dems would lose their deposit in ten of these fourteen seats. Only one in five Lib Dem voters from 2010 who named a party said they would vote Lib Dem again at the next election; 36% said they would vote Labour, 17% UKIP, 13% Conservative and 11% Green.

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft polling on CON/Lab ultra-marginals - summary:

Sober analysis from Anthony Wells...

The average picture in the national polls is unchanged since April – the national swing from Con to Lab in GB polls conducted during the time Ashcroft did his latest fieldwork was 5.4% from Con to Lab. Lord Ashcroft’s findings in the marginal polls however have shown a slight weakening in the Labour position relative to the Conservatives, looking at just the 12 ultra-marginal seats the Conservatives are down by about 1.5% on average, Labour down by about 2.7%, UKIP up by about 4.5%. This looks like a European boost – the previous poll was done before the European election campaign, this one started in mid-June. The average swing in the ultra-marginals is now 4.9 from Con to Lab, meaning an increase in UKIP support has slightly hurt Labour. While the difference is too small to really make a fuss about, it also means that Ashcroft’s polls now show a slightly smaller swing in Con held marginals than nationally – in line with what we’d expect given the normal incumbency effect.

In two of the seats polled, Thanet South and Thurrock, UKIP were ahead in voting intentions, which will be enormous help for them in convincing voters they are a viable general election vote in the local area.