Political polling

[butchersapron]

One thirty is planned time of release into the wild.

 

[killer b]

Ooh, it's like Christmas come early.

 

[goldenecitrone]

Ooh, it's like Christmas come early.

All your anoraks in one big package.

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft has already released details of his (4000 sample) Euro 'exit' polling, and finds a 'kipper "stickiness index" of 51% for the GE. This is slightly lower than some polling undertaken prior to the Euros that were showing 60%+. Looking at the 49% potential 'leakage' 14% are DK, but the bulk of 32% split 2 : 1 to the tories & labour respectively.

As with everything at the moment, no knock-out blows in any of that.

 

[butchersapron]

Summary of the marginals:

In the last few weeks I have polled more than 26,000 voters in 26 constituencies that will be among the most closely contested between the Conservatives and Labour at the next general election.

Across the battleground I found a 6.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour – enough to topple 83 Tory MPs and give Ed Miliband a comfortable majority. But this is a snapshot, not a prediction. The research also found that most voters in these seats are optimistic about the economy, and only three in ten would rather see Mr Miliband as Prime Minister than David Cameron. As I have found in the Ashcroft National Poll, half of voters say they may change their mind before the election – and there is still a year to go.

Longer detailed summary here (pdf)

 

[butchersapron]

So, of the 26 marginals labour would gain or hold them all apart from one tory hold. And look at the UKIP vote in those tory held seats - almost the same as in the labour seats, maybe even slightly higher in the latter - but costing tories those seats whilst costing labour nothing whatsoever.

 

[butchersapron]

In terms of vote across these seats:

LAB (41%)
CON (29%)
UKIP (18%)
LD (8%)

 

[brogdale]

So, of the 26 marginals labour would gain or hold them all apart from one tory hold. And look at the UKIP vote in those tory held seats - almost the same as in the labour seats, maybe even slightly higher in the latter - but costing tories those seats whilst costing labour nothing whatsoever.

In a word, fucked.

26,000 sample...impressive.

 

[butchersapron]

...and that single tory hold is thanet south - Farages expected personal target - polling there was:
Con: 32
Lab: 31
UKIP 27

 

[killer b]

Does the Cameron / Miliband head-to-head bit of the poll mean anything, or is it just there to give the tory reader a glimmer of hope?

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

26,000 sample...impressive.

A billionaire with a chronic psephology habit, and a bottomless craving for Victoria Crosses.

 

[butchersapron]

Does the Cameron / Miliband head-to-head bit of the poll mean anything, or is it just there to give the tory reader a glimmer of hope?

It'll mean an attempted tory focus on those two, a presidential style election - but you only need look at the way people are saying they currently intend to vote to see how little it means right now.

edit: and bear in mind, if the tories make it personal, look how that backfired with Farage.

 

[brogdale]

...and that single tory hold is thanet south - Farages expected personal target - polling there was:
Con: 32
Lab: 31
UKIP 27

Just noticed the slightly earlier ComRes marginal polling with a much lower 1% swing, but based on a sample size exactly 26 times smaller than Ashcroft.

 

[killer b]

It'll mean an attempted tory focus on those two, a presidential style election - but you only need look at the way people are saying they currently intend to vote to see how little it means right now.

...and a labour response to try and make Miliband look more commanding and magisterial. Oh joy.

 

[brogdale]

A billionaire with a chronic psephology habit, and a bottomless craving for Victoria Crosses.

Yeah, the bent tory banker of Belize and all that, but his polling is almost certainly the best that there is in the UK.

 

[brogdale]

It'll mean an attempted tory focus on those two, a presidential style election - but you only need look at the way people are saying they currently intend to vote to see how little it means right now.

edit: and bear in mind, if the tories make it personal, look how that backfired with Farage.

As in Osborne's repeated line this morning on 'Today'...."people have to ask themselves do they want David Cameron as Prime Minister, and the Conservative government (sic) or Ed Miliband..."

That'll be it now.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Yeah, the bent tory banker of Belize and all that, but his polling is almost certainly the best that there is in the UK.

Yup, I don't know what his motive for doing this is, but those are some rich datasets, and as far as I can tell it's all sound methodology etc

 

[brogdale]

Yup, I don't know what his motive for doing this is, but those are some rich datasets, and as far as I can tell it's all sound methodology etc

Wot he says

 

[Pere Duchesne]

Yup, I don't know what his motive for doing this is

As owner of Dods, he funds Politics Home, Total Politics, The House magazine, Civil Service Live and a host of other loss-making ventures of a similar stripe, because it gives him a platform. Essentially, he wants to be taken seriously as an opinion-former and can afford to buy that position. It's part of the picture for him to pay for polls which are more useful than the lightweight ones commissioned by newspapers.

 

[brogdale]

As owner of Dods, he funds Politics Home, Total Politics, The House magazine, Civil Service Live and a host of other loss-making ventures of a similar stripe, because it gives him a platform. Essentially, he wants to be taken seriously as an opinion-former and can afford to buy that position.

That said, there's nothing to suggest that his polling methodology and published data represent anything other than opinion taking.

 

[Pere Duchesne]

That said, there's nothing to suggest that his polling methodology and published data represent anything other than opinion taking.

No, and even when his analysis is highly partial (he's at odds with three-quarters of his party) it's very considered, and carefully rooted in the data. Credit where it's due.

 

[killer b]

I was starting to quite like Ashcroft, until he did that interview with the Fabian magazine. Some things are beyond the pale.

 

[brogdale]

YG's Anthony has Ashcroft's marginal swing pretty much in lock-step with the national picture...

UPDATE: Actually I’ve just spotted that the fieldwork in the Tory held seats was done earlier than the fieldwork in the Labour held seats. So comparing the swing in Con-Lab seats to the swing in national pollsat the time the polls were done shows no difference at all (both show swing of 5.5%). Comparing the swing in Lab-Con seats to the swing in national polls at the time those polls were done shows Lab doing about 1.5 points better in seats they already hold.

Makes thing easy, I suppose?

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft's question to UKIP voters about their preferred next government appears to undermine the tories crude "vote UKIP, get Labour" meme. Seems like nearly half of them (43 : 37) want that outcome anyway!

 

[brogdale]

A couple of fairly unexciting polls this morning...

The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times also had only a one point lead for the Labour party:-

CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. Tabs here.
and...
Opinium in the Observer had topline figures of:-

CON 32%. LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 19%.

but Survation's poll had mainly post local election results fieldwork...was there a bounce factor for the 'kippers?

Topline figures there, with changes since Survations last pre-election poll, are:-

CON 27%(-1), LAB 32%(-3), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 23%(+2).

Survation show some of the highest UKIP scores anyway, but the 23% is a record high for UKIP even by their standards – the first in what I’d expect to be many polls showing a post-election boost for UKIP.

 

[brogdale]

Calling the anoraks....

YG's Anthony bigs up YG in the Euro 'post-mortem'...

CONLABLDUKIPGRNAverage Error
ACTUAL RESULT23.925.46.927.57.9
YouGov2226927101.4
(-1.9)(+0.6)(+2.1)(-0.5)(+2.1)
ICM262972562.0
(+2.1)(+3.6)(+0.1)(-2.5)(-1.9)
Opinium212563262.1
(-2.9)(-0.4)(-0.9)(+4.5)(-1.9)
TNS212873162.2
(-2.9)(+2.4)(+0.1)(+3.5)(-1.9)
ComRes202773362.6
(-3.9)(+1.4)(+0.1)(+5.5)(-1.9)
Survation232793242.6
(-0.9)(+1.4)(+2.1)(+4.5)(-3.9)

tbf I think YG did do pretty well on this. As Anthony says in conclusion...

At a purely personal level though, getting UKIP right at the next election is the biggest challenge currently facing pollsters, so I’m relieved that in the first real proper national test we got it right. Phew!

e2a : sorry that box reads bollux...go to the site to read.

 

[butchersapron]

Lovely stuff:

Internal ICM polling shows Clegg would lose his Sheffield Hallam seat in 2015

The electoral oblivion apparently confronting the Liberal Democrats as led by Nick Clegg was underscored on Monday by leaked opinion polls in four seats showing that the party will be wiped out

The electoral oblivion apparently confronting the Liberal Democrats as led by Nick Clegg was underscored on Monday by leaked opinion polls in four seats showing that the party will be wiped out.

Commissioned by a Lib Dem supporter from ICM and subsequently passed to the Guardian, the polling indicates that the Lib Dem leader would forfeit his own Sheffield Hallam constituency at the next election.

The polls show that if Clegg remains leader he would lose in Sheffield Hallam to Labour by 33 points to 23. He would even come behind theConservatives. In the 2010 election, Clegg obtained 53% of the popular vote.

 

[JTG]

I fully intend to be able to answer 'yes' in future years when I'm asked 'were you still up for Clegg?'

 

[Riklet]

The trail of broken promises can only end with a rolling head.

 

[brogdale]

Lovely stuff:

Internal ICM polling shows Clegg would lose his Sheffield Hallam seat in 2015

Smithson is continuing to pick away at the ICM polling...

What struck me are not just the numbers but the fact that serious money is being spent on the effort to try to get Clegg out.

Constituency surveys like this are just about the most complex and expensive political polling that you can do. They can only be carried out by phone and the bill for this job will have been tens of thousands of pounds. It also takes time and planning. It is not the sort of thing that could have been commissioned last week.

He thinks its John Hemming.