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Political polling

“..basically the reason why the Labour party is in the lead is because of the loss of Liberal Democrat support to Labour. It goes all the way back to 2010 and it’s not obvious that it’s going to go back anytime soon…
[/QUOTE


After New Labours rebirth at the National Policy Forum who can be sure.
Click to expand...
 
Tell you what, come back next week with the latest polling results and let us know if the lib-dem voters intending to switch to labour have suddenly abandoned the party since an irrelevant internal party meeting.
 
treelover said:
grow up, the quotes don't always work.
Click to expand...
The quotes always work. You get them wrong - year after year after year.

No response to the political point? That a forum that most lib-dem to labour switchers haven't heard of and don't care about won't effect their voting in the slightest? And that to think that it will and that this represents "New Labours rebirth" is to misread the current political situation within and without labour and also demonstrate that prior to this shocking turn of events you had some faith in labour.
 
The
Tories 'more likely to raise taxes' than any other party - and Labour would win election if held tomorrow, poll reveals
  • Just one in four respondents think a Labour government would hike taxes
  • Figures from Ashcroft's poll will be a blow to Chancellor George Osborne
  • It put Tories on 32% and Labour on 34%, with Ukip 14% and Lib Dems 9%
figures, which will be a blow to Chancellor George Osborne, were revealed in the latest poll by Lord Ashcroft, the former Tory Party deputy chairman.
It put the Tories on 32 per cent and Labour on 34 per cent when the public were asked who they would vote for were an election held tomorrow.

The Lib Dems were on 9 per cent and Ukip on 14 per cent. The Tory figure was up five points, Labour down one and the Lib Dems up two. Ukip was down three points.
A separate poll for the Independent newspaper showed Labour amassing a six-point lead over the Tories.

The ComRes poll saw the Tories drop to 27 per cent, their lowest in that poll since 2010, and down three points in a month.
Labour was on 33 per cent, up one point. Ukip was down one point to 17 per cent and the Lib Dems up one point to 8 per cent.
Labour was in the lead despite more than half of voters saying Ed Miliband would put them off voting for the party. When asked, 54 per cent agreed with that statement and 41 per cent disagreed.
One in five said they would be more likely to vote Labour if Tony Blair were party leader. That includes one in eight Tory supporters and one in ten Ukip supporters.

not posting link due to many usual objections.
daily mail
 
could also be on the guardian is shit thread.. but their predictability re headlines is laughable.

yesterday, they had as a headline following a poll

Three in 10 Conservative voters would prefer Ukip coalition in 2015 – poll
Tory support for Ukip pact narrowly trails that for another deal with Lib Dems in event of hung parliament next year

you had to get to the seventh paragraph for a brief mention that

The poll gave Labour a seven-point lead on 36%, to the Tories' 29%, with Ukip on 19% and the Liberal Democrats trailing on 7%.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/01/conservative-voters-ukip-coalition-poll



as someone mentioned BTL, it also allows them to say 'Labour lead falling ' next time, as headline..

.one day later..

Labour's lead over Tories narrows in latest Observer/Opinium poll


Labour's lead over the Conservatives has fallen slightly to three points although support for both is up at the expense of the Liberal Democrats and Ukip, according to the latest Observer/Opinium poll.

Ed Miliband's party stands on 35%, up one point on a fortnight ago while the Tories are up one point to 32%. Ukip is on 15%, down two, and Nick Clegg's Lib Dems have also fallen two points to 7%.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/02/observer-opinium-poll-labour-lead-narrows


both are up by a point though?
 
Christ, just imagine a Tory-UKIP coalition though. I'll be claiming asylum in a newly independent Scotland, thank you very much.
 
Survation marginal polling good for Lab...

upload_2014-8-7_16-19-51.png

Though, as Smithson says Unite had more than one reason for commissioning the poll....

A reason why UNITE sponsored the poll was to look at public views on the NHS in the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). If the NHS is included the union is concerned that US private healthcare companies would be allowed to bid for contracts within the NHS. 68% told Survation that they opposed the inclusion of the NHS.

Clearly UNITE is trying to raise awareness. My guess is that very few people have any knowledge whatsoever about the planned trade deal.
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..and it has gained some MSM attention...

http://www.theguardian.com/society/...hs-exempt-us-trade-pact-ttip-eu-privatisation
 
wow, look at that swing in the marginals from Lib Dem to Labour.

Lib dems can not win here...

I assume that's what's happened there, not a swing of actual voters moving from tory to labour, presumably they're mostly going to UKIP.
 
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/aug/11/labour-soar-past-tories-seven-point-lead-icm-poll

Ed Miliband has overturned a narrow Tory advantage to take a commanding seven point lead after a bruising week for David Cameronin the wake of the resignation of Baroness Warsi over the Gaza crisis, according to a new Guardian / ICM poll.

In a boost for Labour, which is embarking on a pre-election summer campaign called The Choice, the party has seen its support increase by five points over the last month to 38%, a share it last recorded in March. The Tories see their support fall by three points to 31% – last recorded in June – giving Labour a seven-point lead. In last month's Guardian / ICM poll the Tories had a one-point lead over Labour – 34% to 33%.

The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 12%, while Ukip sees a one-point increase in its support to 10%.
Click to expand...
 
Ashcroft polling "the second tier of Labour targets with bigger Conservative majorities" that labour have to win

Swing to Labour extends deeper into Tory territory

In the eight Conservative-held seats in this round, which the Tories won in 2010 with majorities of up to 3 per cent, there was little good news for the incumbents. Here I found Labour leads of between 4 points (Lincoln) and 13 points (Plymouth Sutton & Devonport), and swings of between 3.5 per cent and 7.5 per cent. The overall swing to Labour across the eight seats was 6.5per cent – comparable to the seats with smaller Conservative majorities I have previously surveyed.
Click to expand...

Other stuff from findings:

Just under seven in ten 2010 Conservative voters said they currently intended support the party again at the next election. Former Tories were nearly twice as likely to say they would now vote UKIP (17% of 2010 Conservative voters) as Labour (9%); one in ten 2010 Labour voters also said they would vote UKIP. Among those who voted Liberal Democrat at the last election, only just over a quarter of those naming a party (27%) said they would vote Lib Dem again. Just under a third (32%) said they would switch to Labour and 12% said they would support UKIP.

Two fifths (41%) of Conservative defectors to UKIP ruled out going back to the Tories, and 59% of Lib Dem switchers to Labour said they would not go back to their previous party. Overall 42% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 said they would definitely not do so again at the next election. Fewer than one in ten of all voters in these seats (9%) said they were potentially open to voting for any of the four parties.
Click to expand...

As for the outcome of the next election, 36% of voters in the Tory seats said they would like to see a Labour government, and 27% a Conservative government. One fifth said they would like a coalition, either between the Conservatives and Lib Dems (10%) or Labour and the Lib Dems (11%). Lib Dem voters themselves were divided as to whether they wanted a coalition with Labour (41%) or the Tories (41%). 82% of both Labour and Conservative voters said they wanted their own party to govern alone; around one in seven of each party’s voters would rather see them in coalition with the Lib Dems.
Click to expand...

Full tables at link.
 
A polling boost for UKIP from Populus...

d8a8ddf8-c301-4c24-9c5b-170a33640464_zps3024eb50.png

Up 4
% to a record high for Populus..
This follows an increase in the UKIP share in the ComRes online poll for IoS/S Mirror – published at the weekend and the last YouGov poll have Farage’s party up from its average for the month of about 12% to 14%.

We need to see more polls, of course, but the theory was that UKIP would fade after the May Euros and headed for GE2015.

Well these numbers suggest that that is not happening.
Click to expand...

Also posted in UKIP MPs thread.
 
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